Friday 25 May 2012

TVIX, UVXY - ready to snap up

A choppy week in the equity markets, with indexes closing moderately higher overall. Yet the VIX held up very well, and both TVIX and UVXY similarly suggest a bullish outlook for volatility next week.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

Both the TVIX and UVXY are presenting bullish pennants to close this week. With the VIX closing at 21.76, there is plenty of potential upside next week and into June. A VIX move to around 27/29 would probably equate to around 40-60% for the 2x leveraged VIX instruments.

First target on TVIX would be the recent high of 11.50..and then 15.
UVXY, first target 25, then 30/35.

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*both of these VIX instruments are chronically susceptible to statistical decay (as both these charts clearly show), fees, and even being shut down at any given point. Arguably...only for day-traders, who are willing to tolerate loose stops of 5-15%.