Sunday 24 June 2012

AAPL - bear flag set to be confirmed

Apple (AAPL) has lost the media spotlight since the last quarterly earnings report. The daily chart shows a very clear bear flag, that is set to be confirmed within the next week or two.


AAPL, daily



Summary

First target is a break of the bear flag, arguably anything under $530 confirms it - that is however a pretty significant $52 below the current price! So, first step is a near 10% loss!

Secondary target is the recent low of $522..and that should open up a quick move to the big $500.

If the main equity market outlook is correct - with SP'1150/00, AAPL will find it very hard to hold over $500, and then the only issue is whether it floors around the 200day MA of 481..or the next key/gap support of 440/430.

So..we are probably looking at a 15/20%, perhaps even 25/30% downside case within the next few months.