Monday 24 September 2012

FB - spooked by Barrons

Facebook (FB) was smacked lower today by 9% today, the selling inspired by someone in 'Barrons' touting fair value of $15. Well, I been touting fair value of the mid teens since the IPO. Who else was? Ohh, that's right, it seems my earlier 'crazy talk' wasn't so crazy after all. Now the mainstream are finally starting to wake up.


FB, daily


Summary

Near term target remains $15 - as I've noted every week for months. Primary target zone for FB is somewhere in the $12 to $10 range. I can't imagine the market allowing it go stay under $10 for more than a brief intra-day wash out move. That could easily occur sometime this November - around the time when another truck load of shares are unlocked.

Long term, fair value remains $4, and I would not be a buyer unless <$1.25.

FB will doubtless become a historical marker for the Bernanke paper bubble/social media hysteria era.