Friday 15 February 2013

GDX - Miners..a fifth month lower

The miners (GDX) closed the day -3.5%, which was again a lousy performance relative to the broader equity market, Yet, with the precious metals getting hammered lower, its not entirely surprising. The miners are right back at the lows from last July, near term trend is very bearish.


GDX, daily



GDX, monthly.


Summary

GDX failed to hold the 40s, and this comes after hitting the 54s last September.

You can see how the miners - along with Gold and Silver, ramped hard in late summer 2012. With the announcement of QE3, the main market peaked the following day, and its been all down hill since then.

Aside from the fact that the main market actually floored in mid November, whilst the miners - and metals, have just kept falling.

On any basis, we're approaching grossly oversold levels, although its very dangerous meddling, whilst the trend is still clearly down..and there is NO sign of any turn/levelling phase yet.

It would seem my secondary target of GDX 35/30 looks set to be hit within the near term..and I would believe a new up cycle can then begin. At that point, the issue will be, can GDX break above the sept'2012 highs?

Right now, that remains the critical unknown.

Considering the post QE3 reaction in the miners/metals market, you'd have to believe we might merely put in another 'lower high'.