Friday 23 August 2013

GDX - strong gains to conclude the week

With the main equity market melting higher into the weekend, the miners excelled, with the miner ETF of GDX, closing +2.4% @ $30.08 - the highest close since early June. Near term trend remains bullish, with a target of at least $32, if not the 34/35 zone, where the 200 day MA is lurking.


GDX, daily


GDX, monthly


Summary

The miners are doing very well, and are now a very powerful 36% higher..across the last 8 weeks. On any basis..that is indeed impressive.

No doubt, the rising Gold/Silver prices are really helping, and GDX is certainly closely correlated with their parent commodities.


Just another bounce?

My mid-term outlook on the precious metals is for further significant weakness, with new lows 'sometime in 2014/15', with Gold In the $900s, and Silver in the $12/10 zone.

I realise those are very bold downside targets, but if they are right...where are the miner stocks going to be?

I find it unlikely that GDX will be able to put in any monthly closes above $40..if not $35..where the 200 day MA is lurking.

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So...near term...continued gains into September, but I'll be looking for a few weeks of toppy-chop, before a renewed multi-month push lower, possibly lasting all of next year.