Thursday, 20 February 2014

UAL - bullish pennant confirmed

With the main US equity market seeing a rebound, the Transport stocks especially excelled. United Continental (UAL) closed with a very strong gain of 5.5%, @ $45.68. Price structure was a very clear bullish pennant, and that has arguably been confirmed with today's gain.

UAL, daily


The airlines have done particularly well in the past few months, and UAL is one of the big names to get most attention.

With the 2007 double top of $48.25 already having been taken out, next obvious target is the big $50 psy level. Best guess...$53/55 by late March.

*my broader market outlook is for a primary inter'3 top in the US/world indexes, with a multi-month decline of 3-5 months.

If that is the case, UAL will surely pull back, late summer downside would be around 35/30. I suppose it is possible UAL might get cut in half if the market really gets spooked this late spring/summer - by geo-political concerns**

**who wants to fly whilst a war is breaking out, right?

Regardless of any downside action this summer...UAL looks broadly strong into mid/late 2015, and I'd guess will probably be a $100 stock...assuming sp'2100/2300 or so.