Friday 29 August 2014

GDX - net monthly gains

With the broader equity market climbing across August, the miners showed some renewed strength. The ETF of GDX saw a net monthly gain of 2.8% @ $26.65. Despite the gains, the miners - along with precious metals, remain within a broader down trend.


GDX, daily



GDX, monthly


Summary

So.. a net monthly gain of almost 3%, yet the gold bugs still can't get overly excited about their mining stocks... or their physical gold/silver holdings. Both remain within starkly broad down trends from the highs in 2011.

Most notable (at least to me), the monthly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. It floored in June 2013, and has been ticking higher for 14 months - a very significant up wave.

Yet.. in price terms.. GDX is barely any higher than it was in summer 2013.

The miner (and precious metal) bulls have had a good up cycle, and all they've managed to do is flat line prices.

The bears are going to get another chance for a multi-month down wave soon, and we'll surely see the 2013 lows for both the miners.. and metals broken under.

--
*holding to broader downside for Gold $1000/900s, which would almost certainly equate to GDX under $20..perhaps the mid teens.