Friday, 8 August 2014

TVIX, UVXY - net weekly gains

Despite the VIX seeing a net weekly decline of -7.4%, the 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY climbed for the third consecutive week, both with gains of around 2%. Near term outlook is for VIX to slip back to the low teens, as equities bounce to the sp'1960s.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, weekly

Despite all the geo-pol concerns, it is very notable that the VIX again failed to get a weekly close above the 200 MA., something the VIX has not been able to manage since late 2011.


We've not seen 3 consecutive net weekly gains since January. Indeed, price action is somewhat similar in the broader market to late Jan/early Feb.

Best guess? I'd expect VIX will slide next week as equities battle at least somewhat higher. The big issue is whether the bulls can break back above broken support.. into the 1970s.

If they can't...then VIX is going to resume the climb.

As ever, such derivatives are for short term holds only. It is VERY rare to see these things manage gains across multiple months.