Friday, 30 January 2015

GDX - huge monthly gains

With precious metal prices seeing powerful monthly gains, it was entirely natural that the gold/silver miner stocks also climbed. The miner ETF of GDX saw a pretty huge net monthly gain of $3.85 (21.0%) @ $22.23. Despite the gains, the precious metals remain broadly weak, and the miners look vulnerable into the summer.

GDX, monthly

GDX, daily


With the precious metals (esp' Gold) climbing into month end, the miners similarly saw a strong Friday, with GDX 3.0%.

Price structure is a possible bull flag, offering further upside to the $25s.. before the next major down trend.

Looking ahead

I remain a massive a fan/support of the precious metals miners (do you watch Gold Rush too?), but for now... best guess is one final wave lower into the coming summer.

If Gold $1000, or even the 900/875 zone, then it could cut GDX in half.... before this multi-year collapse wave (from spring 2011) finally concludes.

Thursday, 29 January 2015

BABA - good earnings... not good enough

Whilst the broader market saw continued swings/volatility, Alibaba (BABA) opened sharply lower (intra low $87.36) on earnings which were certainly reasonable, but just not good enough to placate a rather demanding Mr Market. BABA settled -8.8% @ $89.78. Next key support is the Oct' low of $82.81.

BABA, daily


Suffice to say... interesting company... although the BABA stock itself.. is of course.. not really an actual stock.

Outlook is broadly bullish.. huge profit margins look set continue.

Price structure is offering a test of the Oct' low.. before new highs later this year.

Wednesday, 28 January 2015

AAPL - jumps on superb earnings

Whilst the broader market saw a fair bit of minor price chop, there were strong gains for Apple (AAPL), having achieved superb earnings for Q4. AAPL settled +5.9% @ $115. Next target is the Nov' high of $119.. .which seems viable in the immediate term. There is viable Feb/March upside to the $125/130 zone.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Without question, with earnings of $3 for Q4, sent AAPL justifiably higher.

Suffice to add.... the Nov' high of $119 looks set to be broken in the near term.. certainly by mid February.

With annual earnings of around $12.. .that makes for a PE of barely 10.. which is frankly bizarre. Longer term upside looks to well above $200.. before the giant paper/QE bubble from 2009 blows up.

Tuesday, 27 January 2015

FCX - sharply lower on lousy earnings

With the broader market weak from the open, and with earnings coming in poorly, Freeport McMoran (FCX) opened sharply lower, settling -6.1% @ $18.38. With Copper approaching the deflationary target zone of $2.30/20s, FCX should put in a multi-year floor by mid summer.

FCX, daily

FCX, monthly


*I'll let others detail earnings. Suffice to say, lousy numbers... but not surprising, considering the continued broad downward trend in commodities since spring 2011.

The monthly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is now on the very low side, I'd be surprised if FCX goes much lower than the $17s.

*I consider FCX one of the top miners in the world, and will be seeking to pick up a position by late summer.. with the intention to hold across 18/24 months into 2017.. when I anticipate a cycle peak in commodities.

Monday, 26 January 2015

GDX - looking highly vulnerable

With the precious metals having possibly seen a multi-week up wave complete, the mining stocks are looking equally vulnerable to a new down cycle. The miner ETF of GDX settled higher by 1.9% @ $22.15. The Nov' low of $16.34 remains in danger of failing by early spring.

GDX, daily


*The miners showed some surprising latter day strength, despite the metals holding rather significant declines.

The following scenario relates to a similar bearish outlook for the precious metals. The count is a 'best guess'... with the overall cycle relating to the ECM from Armstrong

GDX, weekly, count, with fibs

Suffice to add, by late summer.. if Gold $1000, or even the 900s... GDX could be half of current levels.

*no doubt, many of the gold bugs would be outraged at such a suggestion of renewed weakness, but then.. those same people have been buying GDX since spring 2011... when it was somewhat higher in the........... $60s

Friday, 23 January 2015

TVIX, UVXY - back on the slide

With the VIX cooling across the week, the 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw very significant net weekly declines of -18.1% and -19.0% respectively. VIX looks set to continue cooling into February.. and both TVIX/UVXY will likely break the lows from early December.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which declined by -20.5% across the week


Suffice to say... a major net weekly decline for the VIX, and the bullish VIX instruments have also naturally seen major net weekly declines.

Next week doesn't look much better, a further 5/10% to the downside looks very viable.

*as ever, even if the VIX just trades sideways, the decay factor will cause relentless problems for those holding TVIX/UVXY across multiple weeks.

Thursday, 22 January 2015

BAC - down cycle complete?

With the ECB announcing QE-pomo for the EU markets, world markets continued to climb. The financials did especially well, Bank of America (BAC), settled higher by 4.3% @ $16.08. The daily close is a pretty powerful turn... and 'best bear case' downside target zone now looks out of range.

BAC, daily

BAC, monthly


Regardless of today's gain.. its been a rough few weeks for BAC.

First key break for the equity bulls would be a monthly close of $18, but clearly, that is unlikely this month!

Wednesday, 21 January 2015

NFLX - jumps into the big gap

With earnings coming in better than expected, Netflix (NFLX) jumped sharply higher at the open, settling +17.3% @ $409. If the broader market continues higher across the spring, NFLX looks set to break the Sept' high of $489... with sustained action in the $500s.

NFLX, daily


Little to note in terms of the earnings numbers

In terms of price action, equity bears had the entire second half of 2014 to break a new cycle low.. and they failed.

NFLX could easily see a few days of chop after such a large single day gain, but in any case... the broader trend looks very bullish into the late spring.

Tuesday, 20 January 2015

FXCM - margin called

The financial effects from the SNB decoupling from the Euro last week continue to ripple across the financial sector. The FX trading firm - FXCM, was brought back online for trading this Tuesday, only to see its shares implode, settling lower by an apocalyptically extreme -87.3% @ $1.60.   

FXCM, monthly

FXCM, daily


*I have never charted FXCM... and certainly have not traded it.. but I thought I'd highlight it at least once... I don't expect to ever again.

As for FXCM...

FXCM has been given temporary funding of $300 million or so from Leucadia, but essentially... FXCM is now a dead man walking.

After all, who will want to open an account with them now? Would existing account holders not wish to at least 'close out.. and go elsewhere'?

*The 'life saver' company - Leucadia, appears to have secured from FXCM $250 million of 2yr bonds as backing for the funding.

see Wiki for related details HERE

The somewhat really scary question is though... what happens when the next financial crisis hits? How many of the big brokers are going to implode?

Sure.. there are insurance schemes, but still.... it is not that much of a bold outlook to think the next crisis will be far worse... perhaps seeing the majority of trading firms implode out of business.

I'm most certainly bearish the brokerages...not least with more 'overnight/weekend currency surprises' due across the next five years.

Friday, 16 January 2015

GDX - strong weekly gains

With precious metal prices continuing to climb, the Gold/Silver miners were naturally on the rise. The miner ETF of GDX saw a net weekly gain of a very significant 7.3% @ $22.22. Near term outlook is bullish, with next upside target of $25.. which is another 15% higher.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Suffice to say... metal prices up.... miners up.

However, I still believe the precious metals have not yet put in a key multi-year low from the cycle high in spring 2011. If correct, the miners will be dragged back lower this spring.. and perhaps much of the summer.

*for now, I have ZERO interest in being long the miners... or metals. Will be looking to get involved in the late summer/early autumn.

Thursday, 15 January 2015

BAC - failing to impress

Whilst the main market was weak for much of the day, Bank of America (BAC) failed to impress the market with Q4 earnings, settling lower by a very significant -5.2% @ $15.21. Next support zone is $14.75/25... which seems likely within a few days.

BAC, daily

BAC, monthly


*BAC was one of my 'holy trinity' for 2015, and so far.. it seems I've given it the kiss of death. I do still favour the financials for 2015 (higher rates are inherently bullish, despite what some might believe), but for now, the notion of a monthly close >$18... looks very tough before late spring.

Suffice to say... the brief break above the key $18 threshold was brief.. and since New Years eve, BAC has been in a rather strong down trend.

Despite the broader market, I would expect BAC to at least hold the low $14s next week.

From there.. it will be critical for the equity bulls (not least those seeking broader strength across 2015).. to break a new multi-year high in the next multi-week up wave.

Wednesday, 14 January 2015

ANR, BTU - coal miners remain very weak

Much like the energy sector stocks, the coal miners remain in collapse mode. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), and Peabody Energy (BTU) continued to see declines, settling the day -0.4% and -2.9% respectively. A key multi-year floor - from the spring 2011 peak, is very likely close.

ANR, daily

BTU, daily


*there something of a latter day recovery - more so in ANR, but overall, the broader trend remains very bearish.

The coal miners remain weak on the daily charts, but when seen on the larger time frame.... the fall from spring 2011 is incredibly severe.

ANR, monthly

BTU, monthly


I am VERY dubious that a few of the smaller listed miners - such as ANR, ACI, and WLT, will be around for more than another year or two.

However, BTU - along with CNX, are sure to survive, no matter how bad the economy gets across the next 2-6 years.

*I will strongly consider picking up BTU in the late spring/early summer. Original 'collapse' target of $5... almost there.

Tuesday, 13 January 2015

FCX, TCK - Copper miners collapse

With Copper prices falling by -4.5% to a new multi year low of $2.60, the related mining stocks were severely hit. Freeport McMoran (FCX) and Teck Resources (TCK) settled lower by -7.5% and -6.0% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish.

FCX, daily

TCK, daily


*first, an update on Copper... monthly


*Of the two, I prefer FCX, although both companies should be fine across the long term.

As things are, I have ZERO interest in being long ANY mining stocks until Copper has fallen to the original 'deflationary' target zone.. somewhere in the $2.30s or so.. and that might well take a few more months to hit.

Monday, 12 January 2015

RIG, SDRL - drillers break new lows

With energy prices continuing to slide (WTIC Oil $45s), the oil/gas drillers were naturally on the slide. Transocean (RIG), and Seadrill (SDRL) broke new multi-year lows, settling -3.6%  and -4.4% respectively. Outlook is bearish into the early summer... at which point OPEC might finally start to address supply issues.

RIG, monthly

SDRL, monthly


*ignoring the smaller daily/weekly cycles... the giant monthly charts really display the horror show that has happened to many energy stocks since WTIC Oil peaked in June @ $107.

I have high confidence in both RIG and SDRL, but clearly, until Oil has floored, ALL energy stocks will be vulnerable into the spring.

*I will be looking to pick up both in the coming late spring/early summer... and seeking to hold on a 2-3 perspective.

Friday, 9 January 2015

GDX - miners battling upward

With the precious metals seeing strong gains this week, the Gold/Silver miners were similarly on the rise. The miner ETF of GDX saw a net weekly gain of 9.6% @ $20.75. Despite being higher for the third consecutive month, with Gold yet to test the giant $1000 threshold... there remains high chance of another wave lower.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Little to add.

Yes, the third consecutive monthly gain... but with the USD set to rally for some years (would you rather hold Euro or Yen?).. metals - and by default... the miners, are going to remain under pressure.


Keeping in mind the precious metals

I hold to the original downside target of Gold $1000, if not the 900/875 zone by late summer 2015. If that is correct, then the miners will see another significant wave lower.. taking out the recent lows.

*for now, I have ZERO interest in being long the precious metals... or the miners until late summer. From there... I'll be very mindful of a key multi-year floor being put in.

Thursday, 8 January 2015

AAPL - set for new highs

With the broader market on day'2 of a new up cycle, Apple (AAPL) was especially strong, settling +3.8% @ $111.89. The recent high of $119.75 is set to be broken, the $120/125 zone looks viable by late Jan/early Feb. Broader upside to $150 by late summer l

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Suffice to say.... one of the best quality super-techs out there.

Without question, under-valued relative to the main market.

Wednesday, 7 January 2015

M - breaking new historic highs

With the broader market starting to push back higher, Macys (M) continues to regularly break new historic highs, settling +4.0% @ $67.51. There is core support around $60, with the giant $100 threshold very viable in late 2015/early 2016.

M, daily

M, monthly, 20yr


Seen on the giant monthly cycle, the broader upward trend is starkly clear... having risen from a bizarre low of $4.52 in Nov'2008. Interestingly (like a fair few stocks)... Macys put in a marginally higher low in March 2009.. whereas the main market put in a final low of sp'666.

The giant $100 threshold is a bold upside target... but if you agree with sp'2500.. if not 3k, as viable before the current multi-year cycle is complete.. then M @ $100 is viable.

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

TWTR - jumps higher on a suggestion

Whilst the main market saw continued weakness, there were notable gains for Twitter (TWTR), which settled +6.5% @ $38.76. With the biggest gain since mid November, there is now viable upside to the price gap zone 43/47. If next earnings at least come in 'reasonable'... TWTR looks set for a return to the $50s.

TWTR, daily


*former Yahoo CEO Levinsohn - via clown finance TV (CNBC) no less, suggested TWTR should buy out Yahoo (YHOO)... hence the market ramping the stock this afternoon.

I have to say, its an interesting idea, not least from the side of Yahoo, which remains a rather bizarre and lacklustre media/tech stock.

No doubt, TWTR could probably afford to launch a bid for YHOO, but I can think of better ways to spend billions of dollars.

*TWTR remains an interesting stock to follow, but I have no interest in trading ANY of the momo/hysteria stocks. I've little tolerance for anything that doesn't pay a dividend, nor anything that is essentially nothing more than a website.

Monday, 5 January 2015

BTU, CHK, SDRL - carnage in the energy sector

With the broader market in a bad mood about a likely GREXIT, and Oil losing the $50 threshold, the energy stocks were smashed. Peabody Energy (BTU), Chesapeake (CHK), and Seadrill (SDRL), saw rather extreme declines of -9.6%, -6.4%, and -10.0% respectively. Outlook for the sector is bearish into late spring/early summer.

BTU, daily

CHK, daily

SDRL, daily


Oil looks set to slip to at least the $47/43 zone in the near term... with $35/30 in second half of 2015.

On any fair outlook, a multi-year floor - even in the coal stocks... looks likely this summer. From there... it will be shopping time (at least in my view!).

For now... patiently waiting.