Monday, 18 May 2015

BTU - the shear utter horror

Whilst the broader US equity market broke another pair of new historic index highs, there was notable weakness in the coal miners. Peabody Energy (BTU) closed lower by a rather severe -8.6% @ $3.92, the lowest level since July 2002. Outlook is for continued... horror.

BTU, daily

BTU, monthly


It is incredible to reflect upon the fact that in early 2014, BTU was a $19 stock.. although that in itself was a huge drop from the 2011 'secondary commodity peak' of $69.76.

Today's new multi-decade low for BTU of $3.86 was a mere 18 cents above the all time low (July 2002) of $3.68.

BTU has a 'fair chance' of surviving across the longer term, but still... the market is not in the least bit confident about the outlook for 2016.

For the moment... trend remains starkly bearish... and BTU looks headed for the $2s later this year.

A special note on the 'trio of doom'

Arch Coal (ACI), Alpha Natural (ANR), and Walter Energy (WLT) all remain on life support... I doubt any of them are listed much beyond this year.

Clearly, the US Govt's 'war on coal' continues to see great success.

*on no basis am I interested in being long ANY of the miners (Gold, Silver, Coal.. or even Uranium) until the autumn.. at which point the main market might have seen a sig' correction.