Monday 31 August 2015

GDX - net monthly gains

Despite settling -1.0% @ $14.11 for the Monday close, the miner ETF of GDX saw a net monthly gain of 2.6%. However, price action remains broadly bearish, and with a new historic low of $12.96, the 11/10s look a given as Gold still looks on track for the $1000 threshold.


GDX, daily



GDX, monthly


Summary

Little to add.

It remains the case that regardless of however strong the main market might be, the mining stocks are largely beholden to price action in the precious metals.

I continue to see Gold eventually testing the giant $1000 threshold.. along with Silver 12/10, and that is most certainly not going to help GDX !

Friday 28 August 2015

TVIX, UVXY - a truly wild week

With the VIX screaming into the 50s at the Monday open, the 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY soared. Despite the VIX being cut in half by the weekly close, TVIX and UVXY still saw powerful net weekly gains of 46.3% and 45.9% respectively.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily



Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -7.1%


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As for TVIX and UVXY, it was an incredibly dynamic week, with the second consecutive net weekly gain.

It is notable that TVIX had risen from an Aug 10'th low of $5.31 to a Monday morning high of $15.99.

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With volatility still relatively high in the mid 20s, the statistical decay problem is even more pronounced. Such instruments are almost always for short term holds only.

Thursday 27 August 2015

DIS - clawing upward

With the main market significantly higher for the second consecutive day, Disney (DIS) settled higher by 3.0% @ $102.19 (intra high $102.62). There is high threat of a moderate retrace to the 100/98 zone..before resuming higher to the initial break in the 112/110 zone.


DIS, daily



DIS, monthly


Summary

Suffice to say...  DIS looks due near term weakness.. but renewed upside next week.. and probably into mid Sept.
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*I've never traded DIS, but do keep a close eye on it.. not least as it is a leading DOW constituent.

Wednesday 26 August 2015

GDX - continuing to slide

With the precious metals lower for the third consecutive day, the related mining stocks were naturally weak. The ETF of GDX settled lower by a very significant -4.0% @ $13.12 (intra low 12.96). Near term outlook is for continued weakness in the metals.. the miners are set to break new multi-year lows.


GDX, daily



GDX, monthly


Summary

Little to add.

Despite some of the usual gold bugs touting more upside - Sinclair was again touting $50,000 Gold, the broader trend in the metals remains weak.

Again, its notable that despite the broader equity market seeing significant gains, the mining stocks remain almost entirely dependent upon how the metals trade.

Tuesday 25 August 2015

AAPL - swinging with the broader market

With US equities seeing a severe late day reversal, Apple (AAPL) lost almost all of its opening gains (intra high $111.11), settling +0.2% @ $103.32. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be dependent on whether the market can immediately resume upward from sp'1867


AAPL, 15min



AAPL, daily



Summary

Suffice to note, AAPL sure has seen some crazy price action lately. With the Monday opening flash print of $92.. AAPL then soared to a Tuesday open in the $111s.

Today's close was a mixed one. The daily black-fail candle is certainly bearish, and bodes for sub $100.. if sp' can't hold the Monday low of 1867. However, for now.. we do have a significant higher low.

The bigger monthly cycle has been suggestive of $90 since the key break of August 3rd. All things considered, I'd expect at least a return to the low 90s.. in Sept/Oct.
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*I am long-AAPL from the $107s, earlier this afternoon, seeking an initial exit in the 109/111 zone.. but with today's bearish close... a profitable exit seems out of range for at least 2-3 days.

Monday 24 August 2015

TVIX, UVXY - go nuclear as the VIX screamed

With equities opening severely lower, the VIX (after almost 30 minutes of radio silence) jumped into the 53s. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY opened higher by around 70%, but settled higher by 36.2% and 35.9% respectively.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

*first, a look at the VIX....


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Suffice to say... absolutely incredible opening gains in the TVIX/UVXY.. and even VXX... but with the market climbing... there was natural rapid cooling.

Despite losing half of the gains - with black-fail daily candles, TVIX/UVXY look due higher highs, as the VIX looks vulnerable to spiking into the 60s.. even 70s in the immediate term.

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Crazy times... it makes 2011 look rather tame.

Friday 21 August 2015

TVIX, UVXY - exploding higher with the VIX

With the US equity market imploding into the weekend, the VIX exploded higher to the 28s. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw extreme net weekly gains of 62.0% and 63.5% respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain, and will be dependent on whether the PBOC act.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily



Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 118.5% - the biggest ever?


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As for TVIV and UVXY, I would believe (I have not fully checked) these were the biggest net weekly gains EVER.

Of course, at some point equities are going to see a bounce - at least to the sp'2040/50s, the VIX will rapidly cool - probably to the mid teens, and that will crush TVIX/UVXY.

As ever... for short term holds only!

Thursday 20 August 2015

DIS - horror in Disneyland

Whilst the broader market was whacked lower by around -2%, there was particular horror in Disney (DIS) which settled -6.0% @ $100.06 (intra low 99.76). Next support is the gap zone of 98/93. Increasingly, a brief foray into the 80s looks viable by late September.


DIS,daily



DIS,monthly



Summary

*along with AAPL and INTC, DIS is one of my key individual indicators of the broader market.
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Suffice to add... DIS has now fallen from the $122s at earnings to sub $100.... pretty incredible, and even faster than I had been expecting.

Wednesday 19 August 2015

AAPL - back on the slide

With equities seeing some renewed weakness, Apple (AAPL) was back on the slide, settling lower by a somewhat significant -1.2% @ $115.06 (intra low 114.00). Near term outlook is bearish to the 112/110 zone, with broader weakness to 105/100 by mid/late September.


AAPL, daily



AAPL, monthly


Summary

*with the market bouncing into the afternoon, I am SHORT-AAPL from the $115s, seeking an exit in the 112/110 zone within 1-6 trading days.. but will broadly wish to be short AAPL across September to the 105/100 zone.
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Suffice to say.. AAPL saw a key break of support a few weeks ago... and having churned around... now looks set to resume lower.. along with the broader market.

To be clear.. I am long term bullish the company, but in pure price terms.. the stock looks headed lower across the month or two.
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*I would consider going long-AAPL in late Sept/Oct from the 100/90 zone. The 90s look extremely hard to hit.. but that is what the monthly cycle is offering.

Tuesday 18 August 2015

FCX, TCK - copper miners break new lows

With commodities remaining under pressure, the related copper miners of Freeport McMoran (FCX) and Teck Resources (TCK) closed significantly lower by -3.1% and -7.5% respectively. Near/mid term outlook remains bearish.. as copper (and other metals) are set to decline further.


FCX, daily



TCK, daily


Summary

Suffice to say... new multi-year lows for FCX and TCK... the horror continues.

With the USD set to battle through the DXY 100 threshold at some point within the next few quarters - and then onward to the 120s, commodities will be under persistent downward pressure.. and that will equate to the related miners similarly weak.

Monday 17 August 2015

AAPL, DIS - all is fine again, yes?

Whilst the broader market closed the day moderately higher, there was notable strength in Apple (AAPL) and Disney (DIS), which settled higher by 1.1% and 1.7% respectively. Despite the gains, given another week or so, both stocks look to be trading significantly lower... having recently broken core support.


AAPL, daily



DIS, daily



Summary

Little to add.

To be clear, I am long term bullish on AAPL and DIS, but both stocks recently broke mid/long term support, and I'd be very surprised if they don't go much lower across Sept/Oct.

Friday 14 August 2015

TVIX, UVXY - a week of swings

With the market seeing some rather dynamic swings, it was a mixed week for the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, which saw net weekly declines of -1.6% and -2.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers renewed equity weakness - along with VIX 17s.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily



Summary

*first, an update on the weekly VIX


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VIX looks set for a very powerful upward move into September. The 20s look a given, the only issue is arguably how high might a capitulation spike be? 25s look possible, the 30s look a tough challenge.. and even if hit.. will likely last mere hours.
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As for TVIX and UVXY.. as almost always remains the case.. holding for more than a few days rarely works out well.

Thursday 13 August 2015

GDX - miners digging lower

With precious metals back on the slide, the related mining stocks saw rather severe weakness. The miner ETF of GDX settled -5.7% @ $14.64. Near term outlook is bearish, with new historic lows <$13 due within the next month or two... not least if USD breaks above the DXY 100 threshold.


GDX, daily



GDX, monthly


Summary

Little to add.

Suffice to say.. gap zone on the GDX - daily cycle, filled....  back on the slide... new lows look due.

Wednesday 12 August 2015

BABA - post earnings depression

Alibaba (BABA) upset the market on earnings, printing $69s in pre-market, settling -5.1% @ $73.38. Near term outlook offers a moderate bounce, but broadly, new lows below the IPO of $68 look due.


BABA, daily


Summary

Little to add.

Assuming broader equity market downside across Sept/Oct', BABA looks very vulnerable.
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Tuesday 11 August 2015

AAPL, DIS - resuming lower

With the 'Monday nonsense' being fully negated, two of last weeks broken stocks - Apple (AAPL), and Disney (DIS) resumed lower, settling -5.1% and -2.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for $100 for both stocks... the bigger monthly cycles are suggestive of $90 by early October.


AAPL, daily



DIS, daily



Summary

Suffice to say, having seen key breaks last week, both AAPL and DIS look dire in the near/mid term.

Both look headed to the giant psy' level of $100... if not lower, given another few months.

Monday 10 August 2015

GDX - miners catch a bid

With Gold and Silver prices seeing significant net daily gains, the related miners were similarly on the upswing. The ETF of GDX settled higher by a very powerful 6.5% at $14.27. Near term outlook offers a continued bounce to the $16s, but mid term outlook remains very bearish to 12/10.


GDX , daily


Summary

With metal prices on the rise today, it was no surprise to see the related mining stocks catch a bid, although it was indeed the strongest day in at least a few weeks.
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Broadly, there is ZERO reason why anyone could assume metal prices have put in a key multi-year floor. If correct, and metals break new lows, then the miners will be dragged lower.. regardless of however strong the main market might be.

Friday 7 August 2015

AA, CENX - rough end to the week

Whilst the main market closed moderately lower, there was significant weakness in Alcoa (AA), -5.0% @ $9.01. With fellow Aluminium smelter Century Aluminium (CENX) collapsing -37.0% @ $5.18, the outlook remains very bearish.


AA, daily



CENX, daily


Summary

Suffice to add... both AA and CENX look set for broad weakness across the next few months.
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Thursday 6 August 2015

DISCA - bouncing within a severe down trend

Whilst the broader market saw some declines, there was a notable reversal in Discovery (DISCA), which settled +3.5% @ $29.88 (intra low $28.20). Despite the intraday swing, near/mid term trend is broadly bearish, with primary target zone of 25/22.


DISCA, daily



DISCA, monthly


Summary

Little to add.

I very much Discovery (how could anyone not like Gold Rush?), but having annoyed the market with recent earnings, DISCA looks extremely vulnerable across the next few months.

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*I will strongly consider going long in the 25/22 zone late Sept/early Oct.

Wednesday 5 August 2015

DIS - pre Star Wars upset

Whilst the broader market saw some moderate swings, there was severe weakness in Disney (DIS), which snapped lower after earnings, settling -9.2% @ $110.48 (intra low 109.50). First target is the big $100 threshold, with secondary target in the gap zone of 98/93.


DIS, daily



DIS, monthly


Summary

To be clear, I am long term bullish on DIS, it is one of my top four Dow stocks (the other three are AAPL, BAC, INTC).
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DIS looks set to have further downside into early October.. but then upward into year end.. not least helped with the Christmas release of Star Wars VII.

Bullish... the force.

Tuesday 4 August 2015

INTC, QCOM - tech stocks in trouble

Whilst the main market closed lower for the third consecutive day, the semi-conductor stocks of Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) settled +0.3% @ $29.14 and -1.5% @ $63.44 respectively. Near/mid term outlook is distinctly bearish, with both stocks set for significantly lower levels into the early autumn.


INTC, daily



QCOM, daily


Summary

Little to add.

Both INTC and QCOM look highly vulnerable across the next two months.

Targets.. INTC 26/25...   if H/S formation is correct, then $23/21
QCOM: 56/54

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*I remain short-INTC from the $28.90s, seeking my next exit in the 28.25/27.75 zone.

Monday 3 August 2015

AAPL - a key break of support

Whilst the main market saw a second day of declines, Apple (AAPL) was particularly weak, settling -2.4% @ $118.40 (intra low 117.52). With the failure to hold the $119s, AAPL looks set to have begun a multi-month decline to first target of $105/100, with secondary target of $90.


AAPL, daily



AAPL, monthly


Summary

Suffice to say.. .a clear break of support on the daily chart.

Monthly support is arguably also being fractionally broken, but regardless of whether you agree with that, AAPL is now broken in the short term.

Best guess.. a fair chance of testing the psy' level of $100 by early October, which would probably equate to the sp'500 in the low 1900s.
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*to be clear, I am long term bullish about the company, and relative to the broader market, it remains under-valued.