*first, a brief overview of Nat' gas, on the giant monthly cycle
Like many equities and commodities, Nat' gas floored early in the year, $1.61 in March, and is currently in the $3.60s. The $4 threshold seems a given at some point this winter/early spring. The only issue is whether there is a brief surge to the $5s... but that will surely require a lengthy cold snap for Europe/North America, which is inherently an impossible thing to see ahead of time.
Suffice to add, its been a very mixed year for CHK.
Having imploded to a Feb' low of $1.50, the company has battled back, and is now comfortably trending higher.
Things only turn provisionally bearish on any monthly close under the key 10MA, currently in the $5.70s. Considering oil/nat' gas prices, price action under that level seems extremely unlikely.