Wednesday, 16 August 2017

MU - mid term super strong

Whilst the main market settled fractionally mixed, there was notable significant strength in Micron Technology (MU), settling +3.4% at $30.69. A break above the key $33.00 threshold will offer a fast run to the $36s. Any price action >37 will offer grander upside to 45/50 in 2018.


MU, daily



MU, monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, I really like Micron. The most recent earnings were superb, and the current valuation, offers a forward PE around 5. On any basis, that is ludicrously low, and frankly, the stock 'should' be priced at least double.

A mid term outlook to $45/50 doesn't seem overly bold, but it'll clearly require the main market to 'stay on the tracks' into spring 2018. On balance.. that seems probable.

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There was notable option call buying today...

Jon Najarian, regular guest on the CNBC lunch hour show.

Traders were buying the Sept'33s and 36s. Those are pretty bullish upside trades, with barely a full month left on the detonator clock. Regardless of that short term trade though, the mid term outlook for MU looks very bullish indeed.

Tuesday, 15 August 2017

RIG - back to 1995

Whilst the main market saw a great deal of minor chop, there was very significant weakness in Transocean (RIG), which broke below the Jan'2016 low of $7.66, seeing an intra low of $7.55 - the lowest level since 1995, and settling -5.7% at $7.91. Near/mid term outlook is bearish, as WTIC and Nat' gas remain mid term weak.


RIG, monthly, 27yr



RIG, daily



Summary

Suffice to add, near, mid, and long term trends are unquestionably bearish.

The cautious will leave this stock, and the entire sector, well alone unless a break above declining trend, which for RIG is currently around $17.00... and that is a very long way up.
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As an aside... for those with an interest in the bigger picture, the following is highly recommended...





yours.. no car.

Monday, 14 August 2017

NVDA - a powerful bounce

Whilst the main equity market settled broadly higher, there was a powerful bounce within Nvidia (NVDA), which settled +8.0% at $168.40. Last week's break of rising trend/support is still a problem though, and there remains high threat of another swing lower, at least to test last week's low of $152.91.


NVDA daily



NVDA monthly



Summary

Despite today's very powerful gain, the outlook is short term bearish, not least after last week's break of rising trend that stretches back to the mid April low of $95.39.

Seen on a monthly chart, NVDA looks frigtheningly bullish. First core support is around $120, which is currently 28% lower.

Unless the main market is close to a key top (the only sign of that is via the R2K), there is little reason to be mid term bearish NVDA. Recent earnings were certainly somewhat better than reasonable.

Friday, 11 August 2017

GDX - a significant weekly gain

With the precious metals catching a 'fear bid' this week on the 'Korean situation', the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day +0.3% at $23.15, which made for a very significant net weekly gain of 3.7%. Near term outlook is leaning bullish. Mid term is turning bullish with a fractional break of declining trend/resistance.


GDX daily




GDX weekly



Summary

It was a somewhat mixed week, starting weak, but then pushing upward as the equity/capital market became increasingly upset.

With the precious metals of gold and silver building an outright 'fear bid', the related miners followed. The weekly close is fractionally above declining trend/resistance, that extends back to the Feb' high of $25.71.
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To have confidence, mining bulls need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

Those with a hyper bullish mining outlook require Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.
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Arguably, the 'cautious bears' will only chase/short GDX lower on a break of the July low of $20.99.

Thursday, 10 August 2017

TVIX, UVXY - a powerful day higher

With equities closing significantly lower, there was powerful upside in volatility. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY settled higher by 26.8% and 26.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers sp'2435, which should equate to VIX at least another 1-2pts higher in the 17/18s. The key 20 threshold is a serious (if brief) threat.


TVIX daily



UVXY daily



Summary

Special update on the VIX, currently net higher for the week by a hyper powerful 59.9%


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I have generally refrained from highlighting any of the VIX instruments since summer 2016, not least as the VIX-long trade has been frankly... dead.

With the sp' swinging from 2490 to 2437, things are getting a little interesting, and we've seen the VIX surge from the 9s to the 16s.

A three day series of gains have clawed TVIX and UVXY back to levels from early July. The mid May highs look out of range, unless next Monday sees a mini-crash to sp'2350/25 zone... which on balance, is extremely unlikely.

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As ever, holding across multiple days or certainly - weeks, is extremely problematic for any leveraged instrument.
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Wednesday, 9 August 2017

DIS, NFLX - begun the streaming war has

Disney earnings were fine, but the withdrawal of movies from Netflix, is effectively a declaration of war against what will now be its prime rival. DIS and NFLX settled lower by a significant -3.9% and -1.4% respectively. Despite settling reversal candles, near term outlook offers further weakness.


DIS daily



NFLX daily



Summary

*Withdrawal of the DIS movies from NFLX is scheduled for 2019. No doubt, a number of TV shows (such as Defenders) will also be eventually pulled.
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DIS: EPS of $1.58, with rev' $14.24bn, the latter being a marginal miss under consensus. Regardless, the company is doing very well. It remains somewhat odd how the mainstream are overly focused on ESPN, which is a decreasingly important part of its business.

Today's early low of $100.50 was the lowest level since Dec'6th 2016. The break under the 50/200dma's is a serious matter - at least in the short term.Things would turn bearish for the mid term with a monthly close <$99, and to be clear.. that seems unlikely.

NFLX: clearly spooked by the news that DIS is going to start breaking away from its previously 'cosy relationship'. The daily settling candle is a reversal, but further weakness to the 50dma - currently $165, seems extremely likely.
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For the record, I really like both companies for the long term. Of the two, I favour DIS, not least due to the valuation (forward PE 15/16s), and a yield of around 1.5%.

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Indeed, begun war has, between two corporate giants.
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ps. .. and no, I'm not suggesting Iger is Palpatine. :)

Tuesday, 8 August 2017

ABX - continuing to struggle

Like most Gold miners, Barrick Gold (ABX) is struggling, settling lower for a fifth consecutive day,  -0.4% at $16.50. Near term outlook is bearish to the 50dma at $16.20. Mid term outlook only turns bullish with price action >$19.00.


ABX, daily



ABX, monthly



Summary

Barrick Gold is unquestionably one of, if not, the best gold miner out there. Yet.. gold and silver prices remain broadly weak, and that is keeping the stock subdued.

The cautious will wait to chase ABX until a sig' break higher. Seen on the daily chart, the $19.00 threshold... or via the monthly chart, a monthly close >$20.00. The latter looks out of range within the near term, as Gold and Silver remain choppy, and well below the summer 2016 highs.

The infamous 'gold bugs' can only get confident of hyper upside, if Gold >$1400, Silver >$22s, Copper >$3.00, and ABX >$23.33. 

Right now, only the copper target/threshold looks viable within the near term.

Monday, 7 August 2017

DIS - leaning weak ahead of earnings

Whilst the main market saw yet another day of micro chop, there was notable weakness in Disney (DIS), which settled net lower for the third day of the past four, -1.2% at $106.35. The 50/200dma will offer big support in the upper $105s.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, short term, from a pure technical/cyclical perspective, the setup favours the bears across the next few days, as we saw a bearish MACD cross on the daily cycle today. Price momentum on the bigger monthly cycle is fractionally negative, having cooled since April ($115.24).

However, unless you think the main market is close to a mid/long term top, there is little reason to see DIS under the most recent key low of $102.41, or the core psy' level of $100 any time soon.

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*earnings are due Tuesday Aug'8th in AH.

Friday, 4 August 2017

GDX - stuck at a key intersection

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, settling -1.7% at $22.32, making for a net weekly decline of -2.6%. Near term outlook is bearish, not least as the USD is in the early phase of a multi-week bounce. Mid term outlook is extremely borderline, with indirect 'hope' via copper near $3.00.


GDX daily



GDX weekly



Summary

With the USD ending the week with a moderate bounce, the precious metals were pressured lower, and that  dragged the related miners lower.

Seen on the bigger weekly chart, you can see how GDX has seen a clear rejection as what is an interesting intersection of two key trend lines.

The cautious mining bulls will leave the miners alone unless a break >$23.09... or a more decisive $24.00. Things would turn exceptionally bearish if the July low of $20.99 is taken out, with Gold <$1170.
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The one indirect bullish aspect for Gold/Silver, and the related miners is copper...

Copper, weekly



Based on decades of price action, the three metals do broadly trade together. If copper can attain a monthly close >$3.00, it will be highly suggestive that Gold and Silver will eventually catch up. For the gold bugs out there... copper really is something to keep an eye on for the rest of the summer.

Thursday, 3 August 2017

TSLA - Q2 much like Q1

Whilst the main market closed moderately mixed, there was significant strength in Tesla, which settled +6.5% at $347.09. Near term outlook does threaten some cooling, but no lower than $330. With the US capital market still giving Musk a 'free pass', mid term outlook is bullish.


TSLA daily



TSLA monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, Q2 EPS of -$1.33 was identical to Q1, although the cash burn is accelerating, as the company is trying to ramp production.

The stock valuation is utterly insane, but as is often the case, so long as earnings are better than expectations - even if its nominally bad, the stock will at least initially rally.

Fundamentally, this is one messed up company. Higher sales will merely see Tesla lose even more money, and that is despite huge govt' subsidies for each vehicle.

Technically, Tesla is super strong. Many recognise the $500s seem viable in 2018, and I can't much disagree.

Wednesday, 2 August 2017

AAPL - earnings remain good

Earnings for Apple (AAPL) remain good, with the stock breaking a new historic high of $159.75, settling +4.7% at $157.14. Near term outlook offers a touch of cooling to at least $154. Mid term, the $200s seem a given, as the US/global economy continues to tick along.


AAPL daily



AAPL monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, earnings were unquestionably good, and the stock justifiably broke a new historic high.

The daily settling black-fail candle is a subtle warning of short term exhaustion, and some cooling to 154, perhaps $150 would be very natural within 1-3 days. However, mid term.. the trend is super strong, but fully justified on good earnings.

Most now recognise that the $200s are on track, certainly by late spring 2018.

Tuesday, 1 August 2017

CSX - short term weak

Whilst the main market saw yet another day of moderate chop, there was notable weakness in CSX, which settled lower for a fourth consecutive day,  -1.5% at $48.60. Near term outlook offers the $47s. A test of the 200dma - soon in the $45s, would sync up with sp'2435, before the mid term bullish trend resumes.


CSX daily



CSX monthly, linear scale



Summary

Suffice to add, recent earnings were fine. CSX is merely being dragged lower by the broader transportation sector, which has been a laggard across this year.

Seen on the bigger chart, the mid/long term trend is bullish. Things only turn mid term bearish if <$45, and then the target would be $35, back to levels seen in 2015/14.

Short term bearish, but mid term bullish. First soft upside target is the 50dma - currently in the $52s, and then the July 13th historic high of $55.48.