Wednesday 18 October 2017

CREE - crazy unjustified spike

Q3 earnings for CREE were lousy, with EPS of -20cents. Mr Market has somehow managed to twist that into a hyper spike, with the stock settling +16.4% at $34.16. Next big resistance are the $38s. Mid term outlook is very bearish, as the company is still unable to generate any profits.


CREE daily



CREE monthly (linear scale)



Summary

First, see: http://investor.cree.com/

http://investor.cree.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1044252
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There is frankly, very little good to read in there.

The new CEO is touting a focus on Power and the RF side of the business, and away from lighting. So, at least Cree is recognising that there is very little money to be made within the lighting business. That is progress... of a sort.

The company is clearly still struggling, within an economy that is in growth mode. What happens to CREE when the next recession hits, whether that is 2018, 19, or whenever?


Technically

Today's hyper spike is largely technical, and a good example of just how crazy things can get when the shorts get squeezed. I call it a 'short-stop cascade', where the higher the stock trades, the shorts have to cover at ever higher prices, which triggers more short-stops. Today's instance was a particular fierce feedback loop.

On any basis, earnings were lousy, and today's price action is unsustainable in the mid term. I will note that 'technically', the next resistance isn't until the $38s, so its possible we see those, before the 'fundamental bears' start to grind the stock back into the $20s.

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Yours... bullish LED lighting, but bearish anyone who tries to make money from it. There is little to no money to be made in domestic or industrial lighting!