Friday, 16 February 2018

GDX - miners back on the rise

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a negative note -2.1% at $22.51, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 3.8%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a positive week for the precious metals of gold and silver, and that naturally saw the related mining stocks follow upward. Broadly though, price action remains range bound from early 2017.

For things to turn decisively bullish, GDX >26s, or bearish <$20. The former still looks due, as Gold is awfully close to the key $1400 threshold.
--

Two of the most important miners, and very representative of the sector...

Barrick Gold, monthly



Newmont Mining, monthly


--
Both are soundly based, and look good for the mid/long term. Clearly, Newmont is technically stronger, having already seen a bullish breakout in January.
--

If you value my work, subscribe to me.
For details: https://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/p/subscriptions.html

 

Friday, 9 February 2018

GDX - a second week lower

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week u/c at $21.68, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -5.4%. Near term outlook is offering a bounce. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX, daily



Summary

Special highlight: 5min...


With the main US market hyper spiking from sp'2532 to settle at 2619, even the gold miners caught a bid, with GDX soaring from $20.83 to settle u/c at $21.68.

--
The miners were under major pressure this week, not least via the broader equity market, which saw the most bearish price action in some years. Notably, gold failed to catch any 'fear bid' to offset the main market pressure.

Broadly, the gold miners have just been trading sideways since early 2017. The cautious will just wait for a decisive break >26.00s, which would offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70. The bold would be buying at current levels, but with a super tight trading stop. Any sustained price action <$21.00 would merit alarm bells.

Friday, 2 February 2018

GDX - a major weekly decline

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very negative note, -3.3% at $22.91, resulting in a net weekly decline of -5.9%. Near term outlook is choppy. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, with gold and silver on the slide, the miners naturally followed.

Much like gold, price action in the miners has been broadly choppy since early 2017. Things would turn decisively bullish >26... or bearish <20. Yours truly is leaning on an eventual upward break.

Special mention: Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Newmont saw a decisive bullish breakout in January, and is indirectly supportive to the notion that the rest of the sector will eventually follow this spring. Broader price structure is a giant bullish pennant, and that was indeed provisionally confirmed with the January close of $40.51.

Thursday, 1 February 2018

X - selling lower on good earnings

US Steel saw good earnings, but still settled lower for a third consecutive day, -2.1% at $36.61. S/t outlook is bearish to the 50dma around $35.00. The m/t outlook is hyper bullish to $60 (with intermediate psy' $50), based on an FPE in the 9s, within a broadly accelerating US/world economy.


X daily



X monthly



Summary

First...see...

http://www.ussteel.com/investors/reports-filings 

Especially useful is the presentation:

http://www.ussteel.com/sites/default/files/reports_filings/USS%20Earnings%20Call%20Slides%2C%20Remarks%20-%202017%204Q%2CFY.pdf
--

Suffice to add, earnings were good, and the outlook is outright superb. With annual EPS set to be around $3.80, that brings the FPE down to the 9s.

Considering the accelerating US/world economy (at least into mid 2019), the outlook for US Steel is very positive.

Technically, the stock did notably fail to break AND hold above multi-year resistance in January. On balance, it should manage this in Feb' or March. Any monthly close >$40 will offer a grander run to (at least $60) within 9-18 months.

The hyper bulls (sp'4-5K) could start to target 100/115 in late 2019/2020.