Thursday, 29 March 2018

GDX - net March gains

With Gold and Silver net lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week net lower by -0.6% at $21.98, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +2.9%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX monthly

GDX weekly


Suffice to add, a moderate net weekly decline, but a sig' net monthly gain. However, we're still just broadly choppy since early 2017. Until Gold can break above the $1400 threshold, there is little reason to expect the gold/silver miners to be able to manage a sustained/significant upward climb.

Key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

A net monthly gain of 2.6% to $39.07. The stock is broadly holding the breakout (from a bullish pennant) seen in January. Cyclically flat lining. Soft target is the summer 2016 high of the $45s.

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

A net monthly gain of 8.1% to $12.45, but still holding within a m/t bearish trend. From April onward, things only turn bullish >16.50, and that is a long way up. Cyclically low.

NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of GDX. I like both miners, of the two, I favour NEM. Both have recently seen mid term call buying. The more cautious will wait for Gold >1400s and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy, but with stops at the recent lows.