Powerful year for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.7% at $29.28, but that still made for a net monthly gain of +8.9%, and an annual gain of +39.8%. The m/t outlook is bullish with gold and silver.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

GDX broke a new multi-month high on New Years eve of $29.76, but did see some cooling to settle moderately lower. Regardless, it was both a bullish month and year.

Soft target is the 2016 high of $31.06. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer secondary of psy'50/52s. The latter looks realistic in the second half of 2020, not least if Gold >$1750 and Silver >$21s.

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Lets take a look at the two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

Newmont saw a very powerful net December gain of $5.19 (13.5%) to $43.45, which made for a net 2019 gain of 30.5%. With the 2016 high taken out, it opens the door to next target of psy'50/51 zone.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick Gold saw a net December gain of $1.79 (10.6%) to $18.59, which made for a net 2019 gain of +38.4%. We have a provisional confirmation of multi-month price structure of a bull flag. Soft target is the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both trade together pretty closely.

Valid alts: AU, AEM, FNV, and WPM
Specific Silver miners: PAAS, HL, AG, CDE, KL, KGC

For the record, yours truly sees the previous metals and related miners, as the most obvious (and straight forward) trade for 2020.

Miners still bullish

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bullish note, settling +39cents (1.5%) to $27.05, but that still resulted in a net November decline of $1.10 (3.9%). The m/t term outlook for the miners remains bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

The miners cooled for the second month of three. Multi-month price structure is a very clean bull flag, as it is for Gold and Silver. First big target for GDX remains the 2016 high of $31.28, when Gold was $1377s. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer psy'50/52s.

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The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

A net November decline of -3.3% to $38.44. Note the spike from the 10MA. Monthly price momentum remains moderately bullish. First target is the 2016 high of $43.31, with secondary of psy'50/51.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)

A net November decline of -3.0% to $16.79. Big target remains the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two stocks, I favour Barrick Gold, although there is much to be said for a broad based ETF such as GDX.

Miners back on the climb

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a very bullish note, settling +70cents (2.5%) to $28.15, and that resulted in a net October gain of $1.44 (5.4%). With Gold set for new multi-year highs, the m/t term outlook for the miners remains extremely bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

October saw a new multi-week low of $26.18, but ended on a strong note. The Halloween settlement was notably above the 50dma, and bodes bullish into/across November.

For the month, the miners gained a powerful 5.4%. Multi-month price structure is a bull flag, and it offers broader upside, with next target of the 2016 high of $31.28. Any price action >32s would be decisive, and offer a grander move in 2020 to 50/52.
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The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM), monthly

Newmont gained $1.81 (4.8%) to $39.73. The October settlement bodes well for November, with big target of the 2016 high of $43.31, and secondary target of the psy'50/51 zone.


Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

Barrick Gold saw a month of relatively tight price action, settling +3cents to $17.36. Multi-month price structure is a bull flag, offering the 2016 high of $22.78.
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Of the two, I favour Barrick, but there is lot to be said for just a broad based ETF like GDX.

Miners cooling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a very bearish note, settling -74cents (2.7%) to $26.71, and that resulted in a net September decline of -10.5%. With Gold and Silver breaking new multi-year highs, the m/t term outlook remains extremely bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

September saw GDX break a new multi-year high of $30.96, but with Gold and Silver leaning powerfully lower into end month, the miners followed. One down candle does NOT negate a m/t bullish trend. For now, still m/t bullish. That view would only be dropped if Gold trades back under the breakout zone of 1400/1370s, which does not appear likely.


The two biggest components of GDX:

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

Barrick Gold settled -10.6% to $17.33. Monthly price momentum continues to tick higher. Still m/t bullish, with prime target of the 2016 high of $22.78.


Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

Newmont was resilient to the rest of the sector, settling -4.6% to $37.92. Monthly price momentum continues to tick upward. Still m/t bullish, with prime target of the 2016 high of $43.31, and secondary of psy'50/51 zone.

A fourth month higher

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, settling +20cents (0.7%) at $29.86, and that resulted in a net August gain of 12.7%. With Gold breaking and holding above the $1500 threshold, the m/t term outlook is extremely bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

A fourth consecutive net monthly gain for the miners, and the ninth monthly gain of eleven.

The monthly RSI is 69, the highest EVER. Whilst that could deemed as overbought, the m/t outlook for gold and silver is very bullish, and I'm thus dismissive of it.

Soft target for GDX remains the 2016 high of $31.28. Any price action >32 would be decisive, and offer the 50/52 zone in 2020.


Lets take a look at two of the biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)

A net August gain of $3.37 (9.2%) to $39.89. M/t bullish, with soft target of the 2016 high of $43.47, and secondary of psy'50/51 zone.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)

A third consecutive net monthly gain, settling +$3.15 (19.4%) to $19.38. Soft target is the 2016 high of $22.78, with secondary of the $37s.
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Suffice to add, m/t bullish Gold, Silver, and the related miners into 2020.

Miners soaring with Gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, settling +23cents (0.9%) at $25.56, and that resulted in a net monthly gain of 18.4%. With Gold breaking and hold above the $1400 threshold, the m/t term outlook is extremely bullish.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

A fourth net monthly gain of six months for the gold miners.

With Gold breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold, the related miners are naturally following.

After a choppy few years, it would seem the time for gold and the miners is now.
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The two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Goldcorp, monthly



NEM climbed for the 7th month 9, settling +16.7% to $48.37, a decisive settlement above declining trend/resistance. M/t bullish, soft target 50/51s.


Barrick Gold, monthly

GOLD settled +$3.35 (27.0%) to $15.77. Soft target are the $21s.
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Both miners are unquestionably superb, and comprise 11.9% and 10.4% of the ETF of GDX respectively.

Miners falling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a fractionally positive note, settling +5cents (0.2%) at $20.89, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -6.8%. Things turn hyper bullish for the miners with Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s. For now, that looks no closer than it had seemed five years ago.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

With Gold and Silver cooling for a third consecutive month, the miners naturally followed. The net April decline is pretty ugly. Note the monthly 10MA at $20.52, a break under that would threaten May/June weakness to 18/17s... not least if the USD remains broadly strong.

Seen on a daily chart, it could be argued the miners are finding support on m/t rising trend. Cyclically, GDX is on the extremely low end, much like Aug'2018.

Of the sector, I would favour Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont Goldcorp (NEM).

However, to be clear, the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s. For now... it remains a case of broad chop since late 2016.

Mixed February for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.5% at $22.24, which made for net monthly decline of -2.0%. Things turn hyper bullish for the miners with Gold >$1400s.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, even though GDX saw the first net monthly decline since Sept'2018, the miners did break a new multi-month high. The m/t trend is still leaning upward. Things turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.37.
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key miners...

Barrick Gold (GOLD)

A net monthly decline of -5.6% to $12.64. The market is not entirely happy with Barrick now seeking a merger with Newmont.
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Newmont Mining (NEM)

Newmont settled +1cent to $34.12. The company is still in the process of finalising a merger with Goldcorp (GG). That merger is itself in jeopardy due to the attempted merger from Barrick Gold.
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For the record, I don't want to see the two biggest miners merge. There is little to be gained, other than very minor reductions in management/admin costs.

Miners climbing with Gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, settling +2.3% at $22.69, which made for a fourth consecutive net monthly gain of 7.6%. The January settlement back in the $22s bodes broadly bullish into the spring.

GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

A eighth consecutive net daily gain for the gold mining ETF of GDX, nearing next key price threshold of the $22.80s - the July 2018 high. It was a fourth consecutive monthly gain, notably above the key 10MA, and key price threshold of the $21s. Further upside to the $25s look due within 1-2 months.

Things will turn VERY bullish for the miners when Gold breaks >$1400.
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The two best miners (and biggest components of GDX)

Barrick Gold $GOLD

The merger with Randgold Resources is complete. Barrick Gold settled -1.1% at $13.39 for the month, but that was far above its early Jan' low of $11.52. Note the macd (green bar histogram) bullish cross, as broader price momentum favours the bulls for the first time since summer 2017. M/t bullish, soft target is psy'20, with secondary of $22.90.
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Newmont Mining $NEM

Newmont is in the process of merging with Goldcorp (GG), which should be complete by March/April. Price action was much like Barrick Gold, settling -1.6% at $34.11, but well above the Jan' low of $30.67. Price momentum should turn outright bullish in March/April. First big target is the 2018 high of $41.46.