Tuesday, 28 March 2017

CENX - bullish follow through

Whilst the main market managed moderate gains, there was more significant strength in Century Aluminium (CENX), which settled +1.9% at $12.41. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, with first soft target of the 50dma around the $14.00 threshold. A break above the Feb' high of $16.53 appears due.

CENX, daily

CENX, monthly


Like many industrial/material stocks yesterday, CENX saw a rather powerful bullish engulfing candle. This was where the Friday low was taken out, but the stock swung far higher.. closing well above last Friday's high.

Price action since Sept'2016 has been exceptionally bullish. We've now seen 3 higher lows, and 3 higher highs.

Seen on the giant monthly cycle, we can see grander resistance at the $20 and $30 thresholds. Even if CENX were to reach $30/40, that would still be less than half of its commodity bubble high of $80.52.

I am very bullish for CENX, along with AA, X, and a fair few other names. All could be termed 'Trump trades', on the outlook of a growing US economy... with some element of commodity inflation.

Monday, 27 March 2017

SNAP - mainstream upgrades

Whilst the main market battled upward from opening lows, there was particular resilience in SNAP, which settled +4.8% at $23.83. Near term outlook is bullish, as mainstream consensus is for further upside, which would clearly be helped if the sp' can push upward to 2425/50 by early May.

SNAP, daily


So, the fifth net daily gain of the past six trading days. SNAP has climbed from a cycle low of $18.90, to today's intra high of $24.40. Clearly, these are still very early days for the stock, and the above daily chart only has 18 candles on it.

Its ironic that just a few weeks ago, the mainstream were regularly chatting 'SNAP to $10'. That still seems possible, but not before new highs, probably in the low $30s.

Meanwhile... on clown finance TV...

You can see a fair few institutions are currently touting SNAP to $24, with RBC seeking $31. Indeed, the low $30s do seem viable within a month or two, not least if sp'2425/50 by early May.

To be clear, I have ZERO interest in meddling in such a stock that is surrounded by such hysteria. Hell, I'd even prefer TWTR over snap, not that I'd meddle in that mess either.

SNAP is certainly an interesting one to follow... if only for 'entertainment purposes'.

Friday, 24 March 2017

GDX - a second net weekly gain

With the precious metals battling upward, the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled Friday -0.5% at $22.92, but that still made for a second consecutive net weekly gain of 1.1%. Mid term trend remains bullish, with first big target of the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

GDX, weekly

GDX, monthly


So... we have another positive week for the precious metals... and related mining stocks.

The key aspect is that the mid term rising trend - that links the Jan'2016 and Dec'2016 lows, remains comfortably intact. In early April, the 'miner bears' would need to see GDX under $21.00 to have provisional confidence that the summer 2016 high was just another lower high.

Considering 'everything else', I'm still leaning on further mid/long term upside.

Things really only get 'hyper bullish' with GDX in the $32s. If that is seen, then a grander target of $50 will be on the menu within a subsequent 9-15 months. 

Thursday, 23 March 2017

F - still cliff diving

It was another rough day for Ford Motors (F), which imploded in early trading, after a 'weak guidance' statement was issued, with Ford settling -0.8% at $11.68, the lowest level since early Nov'2016. Outlook is shaky.. even if the main market can rally into April earnings.

F, daily

F, monthly


News story: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-f-stock-slips-q1-164804195.html

*This arguably sums up the price action since last Friday...


Seriously though, after two months of price chop since early January, we have a breakout... but its to the downside, back to levels from early Nov'2016.

Seen on the multi-year chart, we've yet another failure to break above declining trend/resistance that stretches back to summer 2014. The fact Ford is now in the $11s again, means any hopes of a bullish breakout (>$13) are off the menu until at least the latter half of April.

Ford is one of those companies (along with CAT.. and others), that I want to see break to the upside, to have confidence that the US market will continue to broadly climb across this year.

Today's corp' statement and resultant price action sure has dented my confidence.... much like the trees did to that cliff diving Explorer.

Wednesday, 22 March 2017

SHLD - Sears set to disappear

Whilst the main market managed a moderate bounce, there was severe weakness in Sears Holdings (SHLD), which imploded by -12.3% to settled at $7.98. The stock is at historic lows, as the mainstream recognise the company is set to disappear.

SHLD, monthly, (linear scale)

SHLD, daily


The ongoing story of Sears is more of an academic curiosity than anything related to trading opportunities.

Most have begun to accept that the glory days of retail - via shopping malls, are now long past. The 1980s was arguably the peak, with a lesser burst of interest in the 1990s. With the turn of the 21st century, and the rollout of broadband, online shopping finally became a reality.

Sears - like almost all other retailers, has adjusted to some extent, but its still not been enough.

Whether Sears can even survive as a 'going concern' really doesn't matter. What does matter is that other retailers (M, JCP, JWN) keep pushing to adjust to a more online method of selling... or they won't likely survive either.