Friday, 20 April 2018

Miners cooling with gold

With Gold settling moderately lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a significantly negative note, -1.5% at $22.71, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.8%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... short term a little mixed, not least as Gold is yet to break above the decisive $1400 threshold. Most favoured miners: Newmont Mining (NEM), and Barrick Gold (ABX).

Thursday, 29 March 2018

GDX - net March gains

With Gold and Silver net lower for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week net lower by -0.6% at $21.98, but that still resulted in a net monthly gain of +2.9%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX monthly



GDX weekly



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderate net weekly decline, but a sig' net monthly gain. However, we're still just broadly choppy since early 2017. Until Gold can break above the $1400 threshold, there is little reason to expect the gold/silver miners to be able to manage a sustained/significant upward climb.
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Key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


A net monthly gain of 2.6% to $39.07. The stock is broadly holding the breakout (from a bullish pennant) seen in January. Cyclically flat lining. Soft target is the summer 2016 high of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


A net monthly gain of 8.1% to $12.45, but still holding within a m/t bearish trend. From April onward, things only turn bullish >16.50, and that is a long way up. Cyclically low.

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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of GDX. I like both miners, of the two, I favour NEM. Both have recently seen mid term call buying. The more cautious will wait for Gold >1400s and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy, but with stops at the recent lows.

Friday, 23 March 2018

GDX - significant gains with gold

With Gold and Silver net higher for the week, the related miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very positive note, +2.9% at $22.12, resulting in a net weekly gain of +3.2%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

The mining stocks are naturally continuing to closely track gold and silver. Broadly, the miners are just churning, as gold has been, since early 2017. Things would become provisionally interesting if GDX can break above the 50/200dmas, currently in the mid $22s. Things turn decisively bullish above the $26s.
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Most favoured miners...

Newmont Mining, monthly


Newmont is fundamentally and technically the strongest of the gold miners. Indeed, its currently the biggest component of GDX (Barrick Gold is the second). A break above the $42s would be decisive, and offer a fast move to the 2016 high in the $45s. Above that, its open air to the 52/53s.



Barrick Gold, monthly


With four trading days left of March, ABX is net higher by a very powerful 8.5%. Cyclically, we're on the very low side, and due another multi-month up wave. The stock will remain technically bearish until >17s, although that number is lower with each month. The bold will be buying, with a stop no lower than the recent low of $11.07.

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To be clear, I really like the miners, but the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400, and/or GDX >26s. 

Friday, 16 March 2018

GDX - broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a fractionally weak note, -0.1% at $21.43, resulting in a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add... choppy with gold and silver. The bold could buy with a stop at the recent low from the support zone. The more cautious will leave well alone until Gold >$1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Friday, 9 March 2018

GDX - minor weekly gains

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.57, but still resulting in a net weekly gain of +0.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, another choppy week for the gold miners. 

I remain inclined to an eventual big upward push in Gold and Silver. If correct, the related mining stocks will push monstrously higher. For now though.... its all just chop. The cautious will arguably leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s, and/or GDX >26s. The bold could buy.. but with a tight stop around the recent low at key support.