Tuesday, 22 April 2014

NFLX - jumping on reasonable earnings

With Q1 earnings coming in 'reasonable', Netflix (NFLX) jumped in Monday AH, and held most of those gains across Tuesday, settling +7.1% @ $373 (intraday peak $380). Near term outlook is bullish, although a break above the early March high looks extremely unlikely until early 2015.


NFLX, daily


Summary

*the daily candle, a black one, is somewhat bearish - not least since it is at natural resistance. Yet, considering the broader market, I'd see a daily close in the 380/390s within a matter of days.
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NFLX is becoming something of a second tier consumer utility in the USA, and by that I mean, as something that is almost considered a basic necessity by many US/western consumers.

I see a media that has got overly fixated on what was the announcement of a minor price rise. Frankly, I think NFLX could almost double subscription prices across the next 2-3 years, and 80% of its customer base would stay.
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*as ever, I have ZERO interest in trading any of the hysteria/momo stocks, of which NFLX is one of the top 5.

Monday, 21 April 2014

GDX - miners on the slide

With weak precious metal prices - and a merger unravelling (Barrick/Newmont), the miners started the week on a weak note. The miner ETF of GDX, started the week with declines of -0.25% @ $23.51. Near term outlook is bearish.


GDX, daily


Summary

The near term outlook is indeed weak, and the only issue is when..not if, the 2013 low is going to be taken out.

Thursday, 17 April 2014

TVIX, UVXY - a failed week for the volatility bulls

The week started promising for the volatility bulls, with VIX breaking into the upper 17s. Yet, the week ended with a crushed VIX in the 13s. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, naturally saw significant net weekly declines of -11.5% and -12.6% respectively.


TVIX, daily


UVXY, daily


Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which declined -21.5% across the week


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As for the 2x bullish VIX instruments, it was a deeply disappointing end to the week. The notion of sp' under the key 1800 threshold, not looks unlikely until June, if not July/August.

At some point the VIX is going to break the big 20 threshold..and remain above - at least for a few weeks. When that point comes, the equity market is going to get smashed 15/20%.

When will it be? I still have a large hope that will be sometime this summer.

Wednesday, 16 April 2014

AAPL - holding the 200 dma

Despite the broader market seeing some significant gains, Apple (AAPL) is still struggling, but..importantly, holding above the 200 day MA. AAPL settled the day +0.2% @ $519. Near term outlook is moderately bullish, to the 530/550 zone.


AAPL, daily


Summary

Suffice to say, we have one of the tech giants holding the 200 day MA, and with the broader market now seemingly on a new multi-week up cycle, AAPL will likely be part of it.

First upside target is the 50 day MA of $530, and a secondary target of the $550 threshold.
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Earnings for Q1 will be interesting to see, they are due next Wednesday, April'23.

Tuesday, 15 April 2014

GDX - miners whacked, as metals fall

With Gold and Silver prices snapping sharply lower, the mining stocks saw very significant declines. The ETF of GDX settled -2.0% @ $24.02. The big 20 threshold is in danger of bring taken out this summer, not least if the metals break the 2013 lows.


GDX, daily


GDX, monthly


Summary

*like the precious metals themselves, GDX closed with a daily reversal candle. However, today's decline is unlikely to be a sporadic down day.
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With Copper under $3, Gold -$23,  and Silver -1.7%, the miners opened sharply lower, and remained weak across the day.

With metals appearing to be merely at day'1 of a new down cycle, there is very high risk of a few weeks of weakness, with GDX at serious risk of losing the 20s in late April/May.