Tuesday, 30 April 2019

Miners falling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a fractionally positive note, settling +5cents (0.2%) at $20.89, but that still resulted in a net monthly decline of -6.8%. Things turn hyper bullish for the miners with Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s. For now, that looks no closer than it had seemed five years ago.

GDX monthly


GDX, daily



Summary

With Gold and Silver cooling for a third consecutive month, the miners naturally followed. The net April decline is pretty ugly. Note the monthly 10MA at $20.52, a break under that would threaten May/June weakness to 18/17s... not least if the USD remains broadly strong.

Seen on a daily chart, it could be argued the miners are finding support on m/t rising trend. Cyclically, GDX is on the extremely low end, much like Aug'2018.

Of the sector, I would favour Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont Goldcorp (NEM).

However, to be clear, the more cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400s and Silver >$21s. For now... it remains a case of broad chop since late 2016.

Thursday, 28 February 2019

Mixed February for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.5% at $22.24, which made for net monthly decline of -2.0%. Things turn hyper bullish for the miners with Gold >$1400s.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, even though GDX saw the first net monthly decline since Sept'2018, the miners did break a new multi-month high. The m/t trend is still leaning upward. Things turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.37.
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key miners...

Barrick Gold (GOLD)


A net monthly decline of -5.6% to $12.64. The market is not entirely happy with Barrick now seeking a merger with Newmont.
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Newmont Mining (NEM)


Newmont settled +1cent to $34.12. The company is still in the process of finalising a merger with Goldcorp (GG). That merger is itself in jeopardy due to the attempted merger from Barrick Gold.
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For the record, I don't want to see the two biggest miners merge. There is little to be gained, other than very minor reductions in management/admin costs.

Thursday, 31 January 2019

Miners climbing with Gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, settling +2.3% at $22.69, which made for a fourth consecutive net monthly gain of 7.6%. The January settlement back in the $22s bodes broadly bullish into the spring.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

A eighth consecutive net daily gain for the gold mining ETF of GDX, nearing next key price threshold of the $22.80s - the July 2018 high. It was a fourth consecutive monthly gain, notably above the key 10MA, and key price threshold of the $21s. Further upside to the $25s look due within 1-2 months.

Things will turn VERY bullish for the miners when Gold breaks >$1400.
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The two best miners (and biggest components of GDX)

Barrick Gold $GOLD


The merger with Randgold Resources is complete. Barrick Gold settled -1.1% at $13.39 for the month, but that was far above its early Jan' low of $11.52. Note the macd (green bar histogram) bullish cross, as broader price momentum favours the bulls for the first time since summer 2017. M/t bullish, soft target is psy'20, with secondary of $22.90.
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Newmont Mining $NEM


Newmont is in the process of merging with Goldcorp (GG), which should be complete by March/April. Price action was much like Barrick Gold, settling -1.6% at $34.11, but well above the Jan' low of $30.67. Price momentum should turn outright bullish in March/April. First big target is the 2018 high of $41.46.

Monday, 31 December 2018

A year of chop for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a strong note, settling +2.4% at $21.09, which made for a net monthly gain of 11.1%, but that still made for an annual decline of -8.8%. The December settlement back in the $21s bodes bullish, at least in the s/t.

GDX monthly


GDX, daily



Summary

A third consecutive net monthly gain, with GDX back above old support of the $21s. Its a 'curious' year end settlement, after what has mostly been a year of broad chop. Things would turn outright m/t bullish with any monthly settlement >25.00. That is still a considerable 19% higher.
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Lets take a look at two of the biggest miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX)


A fourth consecutive net monthly gain, settling right around the upper trend. Any price action above the December high of $14.11 would bode for psy'20, and key price threshold of $21.50s.

Special note: Barrick Gold will be relisted as of Wednesday Jan'2nd 2019, having merged with Randgold Resources (GOLD). To be clear, the new name/ticker will be: Barrick Gold (GOLD) on the NYSE, whilst on the Canadian exchange, the ticker will remain ABX.

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Newmont Mining (NEM)


A third consecutive month higher, settling just fractionally shy of the key 10MA. Note trend resistance in the $39s. Things turn decisive >40.00.
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The more cautious will wait to chase any of the miners until Gold has a break above the multi-year trading range of 1072/1392. To be decisive, >1400s.

Thursday, 1 November 2018

Miners catch a bounce

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -1.1% at $18.93, but that still made for a net monthly gain of 2.2%. The mid term outlook remains bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under for three consecutive months.


GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, the miners ended October on a bearish note, not helped by cooling gold and silver. Whilst we did see a net monthly gain for GDX, note the upper candle spike from just under old support.... now resistance. The m/t trend remains bearish unless the $21s are re-taken. I do not see that happening in the remainder of the year.