Tuesday, 24 November 2015

APC, RIG, SDRL - exploration stocks floored?

Whilst the broader market opened sharply lower there was notable strength in energy stocks (as Oil jumped). Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Transocean (RIG), and SeaDrill (SDRL), settled higher by 2.7%, 4.4%, and 2.6% respectively. The bigger monthly charts are offering a possible multi-year floor.

APC, monthly

RIG, monthly

SDRL, monthly


*no time to list the daily charts as well..  and besides, the monthly charts are what I consider more important right now.

Suffice to add... look at the monthly MACD (green bar histogram) cycles... all of which are ticking upward... from the giant collapse wave that began in summer 2014.

Key initial targets...

APC: $78
RIG: 19/21
SDRL: 9/10

If those can be achieved by spring 2016...  it does offer further upside across the rest of 2016.... even if Oil doesn't move much above $50.

*I am long RIG, the $17s look a reasonable target into January 2016... more broadly, 19/21 next spring... so long as Oil does not lose the $40 threshold.

Monday, 23 November 2015

CREE - lights back on?

Whilst the broader equity market saw a day of chop/moderate weakness, there was notable strength in Cree (CREE), which settled +2.3% @ $26.26 (intra high 26.56). Cree looks headed for the 200dma in the $29/30 zone. The monthly candle is offering a key multi-year floor, with first target upside to $39/40 by late spring 2016.

CREE, daily

CREE, monthly


*it is highly notable that at the current rate of incline, the monthly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle will see a bullish cross in 2-3 months.. certainly by the start of March.

The world of electrical lighting has changed massively across the last few decades.

Incandescents are largely now gone, and even fluorescent tech is being entirely replaced by LEDs. LED technology itself continues to evolve, and despite some problems (LEDs not lasting as long as initially expected), further progress is inevitable.

CREE currently lacks a PE due to recent losses. Next earnings in January will be important to show the company is prepared for the longer term.. in what is a pretty competitive industry.

*I am long CREE (short term hold), seeking an initial exit in the 29/30 zone. If I exit within a few weeks, I will look to pick up a longer term strategic position on any pull back, and look to hold until April/May of next year.

Friday, 20 November 2015

TVIX, UVXY - significant net weekly declines

With the US equity market flooring at the Monday open, and pushing higher across the week, the VIX cooled from 20.55 to the 15.47. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -22.6% and -22.7% respectively. Broad decay into year end is due.. with new historic lows.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -23.0%

As for TVIX/UVXY, last week's gains have been almost entirely negated.

New historic lows look due before year end... and that even allows for another brief foray to VIX 20 in December.

As with almost all leveraged instruments, holding across multiple weeks usually ends very badly.

Thursday, 19 November 2015

INTC - powering upward

Whilst the US market churned sideways, there was notable strength in Intel (INTC), which settled +3.5% @ $34.31, the highest level since Oct'23rd. Next key resistance is the $35 threshold, after that... a straight run to the $40s. The Aug' 2000 high of $56.61 is a valid target... on an 18/24 month outlook.

INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

INTC, monthly


Suffice to say... news of a dividend hike (24 to 26 cents a quarter)... along with a positive outlook for 2016, gave INTC a strong boost today... helping to build upon the gains already seen from the Monday morning low of $31.93.

*I am extremely bullish INTC... and would unquestionably deem it one of the finest companies in the world.

Wednesday, 18 November 2015

QCOM - implodes on negative chatter

With reports of Korean anti-trust charges, Qualcomm (QCOM) imploded from the open, settling -9.4% @ $48.01. With a decisive daily close below old support of the $52s, next support is not until the 42/40 zone.

QCOM, daily

QCOM, monthly


Seen on the bigger monthly cycle, you can see how with the loss of the 50s, there really isn't much price support until the low 40s.

Regardless of however strong the main market might be into year end.. QCOM looks set for further trouble.... not from a profitability viewpoint, but from one of tainted sentiment.

*I've no position, but do see QCOM as an interesting play ahead of Jan' earnings.... but only from the low $40s. For now... its merely one to watch.