Friday, 29 August 2014

GDX - net monthly gains

With the broader equity market climbing across August, the miners showed some renewed strength. The ETF of GDX saw a net monthly gain of 2.8% @ $26.65. Despite the gains, the miners - along with precious metals, remain within a broader down trend.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


So.. a net monthly gain of almost 3%, yet the gold bugs still can't get overly excited about their mining stocks... or their physical gold/silver holdings. Both remain within starkly broad down trends from the highs in 2011.

Most notable (at least to me), the monthly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle. It floored in June 2013, and has been ticking higher for 14 months - a very significant up wave.

Yet.. in price terms.. GDX is barely any higher than it was in summer 2013.

The miner (and precious metal) bulls have had a good up cycle, and all they've managed to do is flat line prices.

The bears are going to get another chance for a multi-month down wave soon, and we'll surely see the 2013 lows for both the miners.. and metals broken under.

*holding to broader downside for Gold $1000/900s, which would almost certainly equate to GDX under $20..perhaps the mid teens.

Thursday, 28 August 2014

CHK - renewed strength

Whilst the main market saw minor weak chop, there was notable strength in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which settled up a rather significant 2.1% @ $26.99. A new multi-week up cycle appears underway, primary target zone is 30/32.

CHK, daily

CHK, weekly


Suffice to say, CHK remains one of my favourite Nat' gas companies. It has seen some noticeable chop this year, but with underlying upside throughout.

Today's candle was a bullish engulfing candle, and bodes for further gains into September.

The $32 high from summer 2011 remains a very valid target.

Wednesday, 27 August 2014

SDRL - knocked lower on earnings

Seadrill (SDRL) saw a slight miss on earnings, and the stock was duly knocked lower by -4% in early morning. There was something of a latter day recovery (intra high $36.94), but failed at the Tuesday price gap zone, settling -2.8% @ $36.63

SDRL, 60min

SDRL, daily


*daily candle was a hollow red 'reversal', it does suggest a possible 'earnings low' is in, but bulls need a break into the $38s to really confirm it.

Suffice to say, SDRL earnings missed by around 3%, and the market decided that was enough to merit an opening gap down of around 4%.

The oil/gas drilling sector as a whole is on the rise though, and that should help SDRL recover next week. Right now, a break above the 50 day MA - in the upper $37s should be first target for equity bulls.

Any daily close >38, will likely lead to 40/41, and that target zone might equate to sp'2040/60s by late September.

*I remain long SDRL from the $37.50s, seeking an exit in the 39/41 zone.

Tuesday, 26 August 2014

RIG, SDRL - drillers resuming higher

Having been knocked lower since mid June, the oil/gas drillers have apparently floored, and have begun a new multi-week up cycle. Transocean (RIG) and Seadrill (SDRL) settled higher by a significant 2.8% and 1.9% respectively.

RIG, daily

SDRL, daily


RIG was gaining some particular attention today, and the daily cycle is offering a rather clear reversal, from what is a likely double floor in the $37s.

SDRL is somewhat stronger than RIG, and is offering a large bull flag on the weekly cycle...

So long as the main market can continue to claw higher into September, there looks to be reasonable upside for all the drillers, including DO (Diamond offshore).

*I am long SDRL from $37.50s this afternoon. seeking an initial exit in the 39.50/40.25 zone..which seems very viable within the very near term.

Monday, 25 August 2014

GDX - miners pressured by weak metals

With the precious metals under pressure from a rising US dollar, the miners were naturally lower from the weak metals. The miner ETF of GDX settled lower by a significant -1.8% @ $25.62. Near term outlook is for further weakness.

GDX, daily


*from a pure price perspective, the 200 day MA in the $24s remains critical resistance. If GDX slips into the $23s.. whether this week..or next month, it will be a major warning of trouble for the remainder of the year.

The strength in the USD - which could be in the very early phase of a major multi-month climb, is going to be a major downward pressure to the metals..and thus..indirectly, the  mining stocks.

*my grander outlook is for Gold $1000/900s. If correct, the miners will remain weak, if not breaking below the 2013 lows.