Tuesday, 30 September 2014

GDX - complete sector destruction

With Gold and Silver prices slipping across September, the mining stocks were again destroyed. The miner ETF of GDX saw a net monthly decline of an extreme -20.1% @ $21.33. The mid teens look likely, when Gold eventually trades to $1000/900s.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Little to add from the endless posts of recent weeks..months.. even years.

GDX looks set to continue falling along with the metals... at the current rate... a key multi-year floor looks likely in late 2015/early 2016.

*On any basis, I have zero interest in picking up physical metals, or going long GLD/SLV, or ANY of the mining stocks.

Monday, 29 September 2014

TSLA - sliding with the broader market

With the main market moderately lower, Tesla (TSLA) was similarly weak, settling -0.6% @ $245. Near term outlook is for continued weakness, with the giant 200 day MA a rather obvious target, which will be in the $220/215 zone across October.

TSLA, daily


Suffice to say...TSLA remains a somewhat weak momo stock... and will probably remain weak ahead of Q3 earnings. If the numbers come in okay... TSLA will surely rebound back.. and break new highs.

*as ever, I have no interest in trading the momo stocks, but they remain rather entertaining to watch, and can be good pre-cursor warnings of weakness in the broader market.

Friday, 26 September 2014

TVIX, UVXY - strong net weekly gains

Despite the VIX slipping a little lower into the weekend, the bullish 2x lev' VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly gains of 14.1% and 14.6% respectively. There looks to be further upside of another 15/25% next week.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 22.6%

VIX looks set to test the important weekly 10MA next week, currently in the mid 17s. A possible spike into the 18/19s looks possible if sp'1940/30s. The 20s.. as has been the case for a few years, look difficult to break and hold over.

As for TVIX and UVXY, interesting net weekly gains... and if my outlook on the VIX is correct, then both look set for another positive week.

As ever.. due to the usual statistical decay issue, such instruments are best for short term holds only, even when the trend is going 'the right way'.

Thursday, 25 September 2014

AAPL - following the broader market

With the broader market seeing some very serious technical breaks to the downside, Apple (AAPL) was similarly weak, settling -3.8% @ $97.89. Near term outlook offers further weakness, down to $90/88 or so.. where the 200 day MA is fast approaching.

AAPL, daily


Suffice to say... a break of the 50 day MA, and with the technical breaks in the broader market, AAPL looks set for further downside.

The low $90s now look pretty likely.. with a viable bounce off the 200 dma in early October.

*those seeking an intermediate market top - from sp'2019, would arguably look for AAPL to fall to the giant gap zone.. with a primary downside target of $80/75 before end year.

Wednesday, 24 September 2014

RIG, SDRL - the broader down trend continues

Whilst the major US equity indexes managed to break the recent down trend, there was continued weakness in the Oil/Gas drillers. Transocean (RIG) and Seadrill (SDRL) settled lower by -1.2% and -1.6% respectively.

RIG, weekly

SDRL, weekly


*I'll omit the daily charts, and just focus on the bigger weekly cycles

Suffice to say, the last 3 months have been a pretty horrific time for the driller stocks. As thing are, there is no sign of the down trend ending.

Considering the main market has continued to broadly rally into the late summer, the performance of the drilling stocks is even more dire.

At some point this sector destruction is going to end.. .but for now, I have zero interest in being long any of them, which includes, DO, RIG, and SDRL.