Wednesday, 7 October 2015

AAPL, DIS - early warnings.. again

Whilst the main equity indexes closed broadly higher, there was again notable weakness in Apple (AAPL) and Disney (DIS), which settled lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. Both stocks were clear early warnings of trouble in early August... and are arguably to be treated similarly right now.

AAPL, daily

DIS, daily


*INTC was the first stock I identified in mid May.. when it maxed out at $35. AAPL and DIS were the two key Dow stocks that confirmed the initial INTC warning.

Suffice to say.. considering the broader market, today's net daily declines for AAPL and DIS are a very poor performance.

*for now, I am in hurry to get involved.. but AAPL and DIS will be primary short-targets in the next down cycle. I would imagine shorting them within 1-2 weeks.

Monday, 5 October 2015

DAL, UAL - airlines flying again

With the broader market seeing further powerful gains, the airlines were similarly on the climb. Delta (DAL) and United (UAL) settled higher by a very significant 4.7% and 3.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish (along with the broader market).. and DAL is already threatening a key breakout above $48.

DAL, daily

UAL, daily


Suffice to note... both DAL and UAL are looking pretty strong... and look headed higher across the next few weeks.

How the market reacts to earnings... that will be key.. and will determine whether the market rolls over again.. or breaks new historic highs into early 2016.

Best guess: a roll over

*I exited DAL-short last Friday from $43.45... have ZERO interest to re-short, as the broader market now looks headed for the sp'2040/60 zone.

Friday, 2 October 2015

TVIX, UVXY - net weekly declines

With the VIX cooling into the weekend, the 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -8.8% and -10.5% respectively. Near term outlook for the VIX is bullish... unless sustained action >sp'1950. It remains notable that the VIX continues to sustainably hold above the key 20 threshold.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -11.3%

So.. moderate net weekly declines for the 2x VIX instruments.

It is notable that TVIX saw an intra (Tuesday) high of $14.10, and having settled the week at $10.72

*As ever... such leveraged instruments are (almost always) for very short term holds only. Holding across multiple weeks - never mind months, will see inevitable statistical decay problems.

*I hold long-VIX across the weekend, seeking renewed upside to the 27/28s

Thursday, 1 October 2015

TWTR - a new CEO won't much help

Whilst the broader market saw some moderate weakness, Twitter (TWTR) saw a very significant decline, -8.4% @ $24.67, as the debate about who will become CEO rumbles on. The near/mid term trend remains very bearish, next key support is the psy' level of $20.00.. which seems a given before year end.

TWTR, daily


Suffice to add, whether Dorsey.. or whomever takes over, TWTR faces significant problems. Just how is it going to build users in the months.. and years ahead?

Further, there is obvious high risk of an alternative appearing at any point. I'm almost surprised there is not a 500 character alternative. We want more text space in our tweets, yes?

*I have no position, TWTR remains one I keep an eye on, for pure entertainment reasons.

Wednesday, 30 September 2015

DISCA - falling despite a bouncing market

Despite the broader market seeing a rather significant bounce, Discovery Communications (DISCA) settled significantly lower for the second consecutive day, -1.4% @ $26.02 (intra low 25.27). Near term outlook is bearish, with a mid term target of the 22/20 zone.

DISCA, daily

DISCA, monthly


Little to add

To be clear.. I like DISCA (and I'm not just thinking about the shows - Gold Rush, Bering Sea Gold). It is one of the better TV/media companies.

Once the broader market levels out... whether in Q4.. or Q1 2016, I would be seeking to pick up DISCA for a mid/long term hold.