Whilst the main market soared after the uncertainly of QE-taper was removed, Ford (F) snapped lower on a reduced outlook for 2014. Ford settled -6.3% @ $15.64..with a close just below the key 200 day MA. Near term weakness to the low $14s is expected.
Ford, daily
Summary
With a lowered outlook, the possibility of the 18s..even 20s is now off the table for at least another few months.
The break below the 200 day MA is pretty important, and the next level of support is the obvious zone in the low $14s.
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If the 14s can hold in the current down wave..then upside to the upper teens by late spring 2014 is still viable.
Whilst the main market saw some pre-FOMC chop, Denny's (DENN) slipped -1.5% @ $7.04. Price structure is a rather clear bull flag, but must hold above the rising 50 day MA, which at year end will be in the 6.90s. There is viable upside to $8/9 by late spring 2014.
DENN, daily
DENN, monthly
Summary
*occasionally, I'll look at a random stock..and this one was inspired by a kooky video from Redlettermedia
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Seriously though...
DENN is an Interesting company, and the last few years have seen it broadly soar from the collapse wave lows of 2003 and 2009.
The past few years have seen revenue fall around 10%. The one good thing, Denny's remains moderately profitable, with net margins of just over 5%. Not exactly inspiring, but then the restaurant companies usually struggle to push much above 7-10%..even when everything is going well in the broader economy.
In terms of price, DENN is offering a rather clear bull flag on the daily charts.
Next upside is a break above the late Nov' high of $7.51. That certainly looks viable into early January.
Back to the IPO of $10 ?
The real target for the bulls should be the original IPO (Jan 1998) price of $10.00. In the same month, it briefly hit $11.56..which remains the historic high. I will be particularly interested to see how it reacts if the broader market pulls lower in Q2/Q3 next year..before the next intermediate floor is put in.
With the main market closing with some gains, it was not surprising to see Ford (F) higher, settling +1.6% @ $16.86. Ford looks set for a challenge of the late Oct' high of $17.92. If Ford can put in a few daily closes in the 18s...then the low 20s look a given in early 2014.
F, daily
Summary
Ford remains a soundly based company, and is one that is very reflective of the broader economy in many ways.
From a pure price perspective, once we see 2 or 3 daily closes in the 18s, it should be a good sign that both Ford, and the wider market, will see continued significant strength in the first half of 2014.
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All time high: $32.83... April 1999.
Certainly, that doesn't look viable until 2015, but for the long term buyers...that would be a hugely impressive 80% higher than current levels!
Whilst the main equity market battled hard to hold the low sp'1770s, the momo stocks were living in a world of their own, and ramped hard into the weekend. Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) both saw very strong gains of 2.9% and 6.9% respectively, and both look set for the $60s.
FB, daily
TWTR, daily
Summary
It was amusing to see the Drudge Report today highlight how Twitter - a loss making social media company..is now worth tens of billions.
After all, Twitter is just a website, with very limited advertising revenue. Just what is the future for this bizarre company?
How about a merger/buy out from...FB ?
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The $60s are likely
FB looks set to challenge the $54 high of mid October ($56s in AH, on earnings) next Mon/Tuesday..and if the main market holds together..post-FOMC, then FB will probably be in the $60s before year end.
TWTR, at the current rate of increase, will probably be $60 by the Monday close.
Whilst the main market saw opening weakness, Facebook (FB) jumped 4% higher, on news it will be added to the sp'500 index later this month. FB settled +5% @ $51.83. Near term outlook remains bullish, and a test of the recent high in the $54s looks likely within days.
FB, daily
Summary
FB teased the bears recently..only to re-take the broken $44s..and is now continuing to surge on more positive news.
The inclusion into the sp'500 will mean many institutions that track the sp'500, will be forced to buy it, and thus we have added underlying upside pressure for the rest of December and into January.
The big issue is how will the market react to Q4 earnings..even if they are 'better than expected'.
So long as the main market broadly keeps rising, FB has a good chance of breaking the $60s by late January.
