Friday, 19 December 2014

TVIX, UVXY - huge weekly declines

With equities having floored on Tuesday at sp'1972, the VIX is back in cooling mode, already back in the mid teens. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -23.8% and -23.7% respectively. Outlook into mid/late January is for consistent decay... to break new lows.


TVIX, daily


UVXY, daily


Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which declined by a significant -21.8% across the week.

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There is not much to add.

With 'real VIX' having maxed out in the 23s on Tuesday afternoon, the bullish VIX instruments are already massively lower, and look set to break the cycle lows of two weeks ago.

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*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX.... until the broader equity market forms a grand multi-year top, and that looks to be a good year or two away.

Thursday, 18 December 2014

AAPL - headed for new highs in early 2015

With the broader market climbing strongly for a second day, Apple (AAPL) was similarly on the rise, settling +2.8% @ $112.52. Outlook is for new historic highs in Jan/Feb... somewhere in the $120/125 zone.


AAPL, daily


AAPL, monthly


Summary

With the broader market having put in a key floor of sp'1972, AAPL looks set to comfortably rise into next earnings.

The $120s look a relatively easy target... the only issue is what then? If the broader market can battle higher into the late spring to the sp'2300s, then AAPL will likely begin a serious play for the big $150 level by late 2015.

Wednesday, 17 December 2014

AA - climbing with the main market

With the main market building significant gains across the day, Alcoa (AA) settled higher by 4.3% @ $15.05. Near term outlook is for broad upside... first target is the $18 threshold. Long term upside to $25 appears viable in latter half of 2015.


AA, daily


AA, monthly


Summary

I have a lot to say on Alcoa, but for now...  it has almost certainly formed a floor of $14.41... around the 200dma.

I am seeking much higher levels... first target is 18s... and then much higher across next year..to $25.

Tuesday, 16 December 2014

GDX - failed opening gains

Despite early morning gains of around 4.5%, with the precious metals cooling across the day, the mining stocks still closed lower for the fifth consecutive day. The miner ETF of GDX, settled -1.0% @ $17.16. Outlook is bearish, with near term downside to the low 16s, if not 15/14s.. with Gold $1100/1080.


GDX, daily


Summary

Suffice to say... for the gold miner bulls.. a very disappointing day.. with opening gains.. completely failing.

Indeed, GDX even turned net lower by 11am.. before a bounce into the afternoon.
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*I remain short the miners (via GDX puts).. seeking to drop later this week.

Monday, 15 December 2014

F - rough day, but broader upside for 2015

With the main market opening higher, but swinging strongly lower, Ford (F), was hit pretty hard, losing the 50dma, settling -4.8% @ $14.27. Next support is the price cluster zone of $14.25/00. There is viable Q1 2015 upside to the upper 17s. Long term upside remain the mid 20s.


F, daily


F, monthly, 20yr


Summary

Ford is certainly not the most exciting of stocks. It doesn't attract any of the 'momo chasers', although that is probably a good thing, yes?

Unquestionably, Ford has a secure long term future, and in my view.. the only issue is when we see a monthly close in the 18s... not if.

Once 18s are hit.. Ford should see a straight move to 20... and eventually the mid 20s.. which is a natural price cluster zone that goes back to 2001.
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*I have no position right now, but have eyes on the June 15 calls.