Friday, 22 September 2017

GDX - falling with the metals

With the precious metals of gold and silver significantly lower for a second consecutive week, the related miners naturally followed. The ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $23.47, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -2.7%. Near term outlook is bearish.


GDX weekly



GDX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, its not surprising to see GDX closely track the related metals.

For now, gold is comfortably holding the mid term upward trend from Dec'2015. Silver is still lagging, but to counter that, copper is mid term bullish, having seen a powerfully bullish August close >$3.00. On balance, Gold and Silver should push upward... with GDX to follow.

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Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22, Copper $3.00 (achieved).

GDX: Feb' high $25.71, then the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

Thursday, 21 September 2017

X - settling under the 50dma

Whilst the main market saw a day of weak chop, there was very significant weakness in US Steel (X), which saw an intra low of $24.32, and settling -4.4% at $24.66. The daily close was 10 cents under the 50dma, the most bearish close since June 27th.


X daily



X monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, short term bearish.... mid/long term bullish.

If you believe the main market will see a 4-5% correction, then considering we have already seen a daily close under the 50dma, its hard to see rising trend - from mid May, not also breaking. That threshold is currently around $24.00. In theory.... the most bearish case are the sp'2400/2390s... with X around $21.00.

US Steel is unquestionably a good company, and unless you think the US/world economy is set to see a recession within 3-6 months, it is a stock for the mid/long term.

Wednesday, 20 September 2017

AAPL - still leaning weak

Apple (AAPL) broke a new historic high of $164.94 on Sept'1st. Since that time, the stock has been declining (if choppily), and today settling lower for the 9th day of 12, -1.7% at $155.99. Near term outlook threatens the 150/49 zone. A hit of the 200dma in the low $140s is very viable (if briefly) in October.


AAPL daily



AAPL monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... short term bearish, but unless a few of the US (and other world) indexes see bearish monthly closes (whether Sept' or Oct'), the mid/long term outlook has to be bullish. Note the monthly 10MA, currently in the $141s, and still rising. Unless that is broken and closed under, the equity bears have nothing to tout.

Tuesday, 19 September 2017

FCX - a third day higher

Whilst the main market settled fractionally mixed, there was further significant strength in Freeport McMoRan, which settled higher for a third consecutive day, +2.5% to $14.48. Near term outlook offers threat of the $13.30/20s into early October. More broadly, first soft target are the $17s, and then the $24s.


FCX daily



FCX monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, FCX is near term choppy, leaning on the weaker side, as copper has cooled from a recent high of $3.18. Considering the August copper settlement above the very important $3.00 threshold, I have to be mid term bullish the copper miners of FCX, TECK, and SCCO.
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Mainstream attention...


Pete Najarian of https://investitute.com highlighting FCX.

I should add, from a pure 'technical perspective', Southern Copper (SCCO) is the strongest, Teck Resources (TECK) is second, with FCX the third strongest.
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Copper, weekly


The bullish view for the miners is only dropped if copper breaks under mid term rising trend, currently at $2.70, and which will be around $2.90 by year end.

Monday, 18 September 2017

MU - approaching multi-decade resistance

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was significant strength in the semi-con' stocks. Micron Technology (MU) settled +2.2% at $35.43. The $36s are a magnet in the near term, but will likely hold as resistance. The $37s seem far more probable after a main market correction of 4-5%.


MU daily



MU monthly



Summary

Micron is fast approaching the Dec'2014 high of $36.59.

My best guess is that the $36s will HOLD in the near term, with MU likely to be held back into October, but that will surely need a main market correction of 4-5%. Regardless, technically, AND fundamentally, Micron looks very strong indeed.

Many others also recognise that with a forward PE in the 5s, there is VERY considerable mid/long term upside potential for Micron.


Pete Najarian of https://investitute.com noted to me that Evercore today issued a new target of $50, which is interestingly in sync with my own mid term target range.

*upon checking, I see that FBN securities issued a target Sept'11th of $45, and Goldman Sachs have an outright 'BUY' as of Sept'13th.

see: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mu
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I am bullish Micron Technology into 2018. That view is only dropped if at least 2-3 of the main indexes see a bearish monthly close for September or October, which currently seems very unlikely.