Saturday, 1 February 2020

Miners broadly choppy

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bullish note, settling +26cents (0.9%) to $28.99, but that still resulted in a net January decline of -29cents (1.0%). Despite a broadly choppy January, the m/t term outlook for remains bullish.

GDX monthly



GDX, daily



Summary

Despite settling net lower for January, the miners are comfortably m/t bullish, from the key August 2018 low of $17.07. Big target remains the 2016 high of $31.06.

The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont (NEM)


Settling net higher by a very significant +3.7% to $45.06. Having already cleared the 2016 high (Newmont is ahead of the sector), next target is psy'50, and that looks very viable within Feb'/March.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)


Settling -0.4% at $18.52. Price structure is a multi-month bull flag, with big target of the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD.

Tuesday, 31 December 2019

Powerful year for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -0.7% at $29.28, but that still made for a net monthly gain of +8.9%, and an annual gain of +39.8%. The m/t outlook is bullish with gold and silver.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

GDX broke a new multi-month high on New Years eve of $29.76, but did see some cooling to settle moderately lower. Regardless, it was both a bullish month and year.

Soft target is the 2016 high of $31.06. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer secondary of psy'50/52s. The latter looks realistic in the second half of 2020, not least if Gold >$1750 and Silver >$21s.

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Lets take a look at the two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)


Newmont saw a very powerful net December gain of $5.19 (13.5%) to $43.45, which made for a net 2019 gain of 30.5%. With the 2016 high taken out, it opens the door to next target of psy'50/51 zone.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)


Barrick Gold saw a net December gain of $1.79 (10.6%) to $18.59, which made for a net 2019 gain of +38.4%. We have a provisional confirmation of multi-month price structure of a bull flag. Soft target is the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both trade together pretty closely.

Valid alts: AU, AEM, FNV, and WPM
Specific Silver miners: PAAS, HL, AG, CDE, KL, KGC

For the record, yours truly sees the previous metals and related miners, as the most obvious (and straight forward) trade for 2020.

Friday, 29 November 2019

Miners still bullish

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bullish note, settling +39cents (1.5%) to $27.05, but that still resulted in a net November decline of $1.10 (3.9%). The m/t term outlook for the miners remains bullish.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

The miners cooled for the second month of three. Multi-month price structure is a very clean bull flag, as it is for Gold and Silver. First big target for GDX remains the 2016 high of $31.28, when Gold was $1377s. Any price action >32.00 would be decisive, and offer psy'50/52s.

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The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)


A net November decline of -3.3% to $38.44. Note the spike from the 10MA. Monthly price momentum remains moderately bullish. First target is the 2016 high of $43.31, with secondary of psy'50/51.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)


A net November decline of -3.0% to $16.79. Big target remains the 2016 high of $22.71.
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Of the two stocks, I favour Barrick Gold, although there is much to be said for a broad based ETF such as GDX.

Thursday, 31 October 2019

Miners back on the climb

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a very bullish note, settling +70cents (2.5%) to $28.15, and that resulted in a net October gain of $1.44 (5.4%). With Gold set for new multi-year highs, the m/t term outlook for the miners remains extremely bullish.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

October saw a new multi-week low of $26.18, but ended on a strong note. The Halloween settlement was notably above the 50dma, and bodes bullish into/across November.

For the month, the miners gained a powerful 5.4%. Multi-month price structure is a bull flag, and it offers broader upside, with next target of the 2016 high of $31.28. Any price action >32s would be decisive, and offer a grander move in 2020 to 50/52.
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The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont Goldcorp (NEM), monthly


Newmont gained $1.81 (4.8%) to $39.73. The October settlement bodes well for November, with big target of the 2016 high of $43.31, and secondary target of the psy'50/51 zone.


Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


Barrick Gold saw a month of relatively tight price action, settling +3cents to $17.36. Multi-month price structure is a bull flag, offering the 2016 high of $22.78.
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Of the two, I favour Barrick, but there is lot to be said for just a broad based ETF like GDX.

Monday, 30 September 2019

Miners cooling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a very bearish note, settling -74cents (2.7%) to $26.71, and that resulted in a net September decline of -10.5%. With Gold and Silver breaking new multi-year highs, the m/t term outlook remains extremely bullish.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

September saw GDX break a new multi-year high of $30.96, but with Gold and Silver leaning powerfully lower into end month, the miners followed. One down candle does NOT negate a m/t bullish trend. For now, still m/t bullish. That view would only be dropped if Gold trades back under the breakout zone of 1400/1370s, which does not appear likely.


The two biggest components of GDX:

Barrick Gold (GOLD)


Barrick Gold settled -10.6% to $17.33. Monthly price momentum continues to tick higher. Still m/t bullish, with prime target of the 2016 high of $22.78.


Newmont Goldcorp (NEM)


Newmont was resilient to the rest of the sector, settling -4.6% to $37.92. Monthly price momentum continues to tick upward. Still m/t bullish, with prime target of the 2016 high of $43.31, and secondary of psy'50/51 zone.