Friday, 15 December 2017

GDX - battling to hold support

The gold mining ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately negative note, -0.4% at $21.99, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 1.4%. Near term outlook offers chop into year end. Things only turn provisionally bullish with a break >23.00, to be decisive, the mining bulls need to exceed the Feb' high of $25.71.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a sig' net weekly gain for the miners - naturally helped via upside in gold and silver, but more broadly, the picture isn't so pretty. The miners have been cooling since September, and other than the very sig' 'fed day' gain, price action continues to lean on the weaker side.

The cautious will leave the sector well alone until at least a provisional bullish break, which is arguably GDX >$23.00. 

Alarm bells if Gold <$1200, or if GDX sees any daily closes <$21.00.

Best guess? Based on my broader bullish commodity outlook, I'm still leaning bullish.

Thursday, 14 December 2017

TEVA - jumping on restructuring news

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was notable strength in Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), which saw an intra high of $18.98, and settling +10.2% at $17.30. The stock is still within a m/t bearish trend, but that looks set to be decisively concluded in early 2018.


TEVA daily



TEVA monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, huge layoffs of around 14k, a suspended dividend, and the stock soared in pre-market by around 18%. For those working for Teva, it was a very bad day, but for the stockholders, its was a good day, and it marks the beginning of what is an overdue major restructuring.

Technically, the m/t bearish trend looks set to be broken in early 2018. I would keep in mind the key monthly 10MA, currently in the $23s, but that will be down to $20 by March/April.

I am m/t bullish TEVA. First soft target is a monthly close above the monthly 10MA, which is indeed a target that will be easier to hit with each month. Any monthly close above the 10MA will offer secondary of the 32/33s.

Wednesday, 13 December 2017

BAC - post hike cooling

The fed raised rates as expected, with Bank of America (BAC) seeing some classic 'sell the news' cooling, settling -1.6% at $28.84. S/t bearish... if only for a day or two. M/t bullish, as the psy' $30 threshold is due before year end. Many now recognise the $33s are coming, as higher rates are bullish financials.


BAC daily



BAC monthly



Summary

Suffice to add... higher rates are bullish financials, and to a lesser degree, the broader equity market and US ecomomy.

BAC remains my most favoured of the US financials.

Tuesday, 12 December 2017

FCX - a fifth day higher

Freeport McMoRan settled higher for a fifth consecutive day, +4.6% at $15.71.The push above $15.00 is significant, and offers the low $16s within the near term. Any monthly close >17.00, will offer the 24/25s by late summer 2018.


FCX daily



FCX monthly



Summary

Relative to the past two months of price action in copper, FCX is actually performing rather well indeed...



With a daily close of $15.71, the low $16s are easily viable within the very near term. There will likely be some considerable chop/consolidation in the low $16s.

What really matters - as seen on the monthly chart, is whether FCX can attain a decisive monthly close in the 17s. If that is achieved, its open air to the 24/25s, last seen in Dec'2014. Clearly, it will need copper to stabilise around the $3.00 threshold, and resume broadly upward.

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FCX garners most of the 'copper miner' attention. However, Southern Copper (SCCO) is technically, and arguably also fundamentally, a superior company. A second alternative is Teck Resources, although that has a coal segment, which is a commodity that many want absolutely nothing to do with.

Monday, 11 December 2017

GILD - mid term strong

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was notable strength in Gilead Sciences (GILD), which settled +2.2% at $75.88. The Nov' low of $70.05 marks a key higher low. M/t outlook is bullish to >90.


GILD daily



GILD monthly



Summary

Suffice to add, the recent Nov' low of $70.05, marks a key higher low. Price structure on the monthly chart is a bull flag spanning Sept-Nov'. A break into the 77s would arguably provisionally confirm it, the 86s would be decisive.

First target is the $90 threshold, back to levels from April 2016. Bullish GILD into/across 2018.