Tuesday, 30 June 2015

GDX - rough month for the miners

Despite Gold only seeing a net monthly decline of $18 @ $1172, the mining stocks were having serious problems. The ETF of GDX settled June net lower by a very significant -9.3% @ $17.76. The Nov' 2014 low of $16.34 is set to be broken, as Gold looks due to renew falling toward the giant $1000 threshold.


GDX, monthly



GDX, daily



Summary

Suffice to add... holding to original targets...

Weakness in the precious metals.. with Gold $1000, Silver 12/10.. and that will massively impact the related mining stocks.

Further, if the USD resumes higher.. with a hyper-ramp to the DXY 120s into 2016.. that will put massive downward pressure on commodities... and again.. that is bearish miners.

Monday, 29 June 2015

TVIX, UVXY - finally... its time to soar

With the VIX building powerful gains across the day, the 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw the biggest net daily gains in a very long time, settling higher by 33.5% and 32.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers the VIX 20/21 zone.. along with sp'2050s.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

*first, an update on the VIX weekly cycle...


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Finally... the 2x bullish VIX instruments saw a really impressive day.. but then.. it doesn't make up for the past few weeks.. never mind months of relentless decay.

Regardless of another few days of upside in the VIX...  equity bears trading the TVIX/UVXY.. or even VXX, need to be mindful that these up cycles never last for very long.

*I exited a VIX-long in the morning. Will be seeking to be involved in the VIX into the Sept/Oct period.

Friday, 26 June 2015

TVIX, UVXY - net weekly declines, despite a higher VIX

With equities seeing moderate net weekly declines, the VIX saw a net weekly gain of 1.6% @ 14.19. Yet, the 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY still saw net weekly declines of -10.7% and -10.2% respectively. Volatility continues to remain subdued, but does look set to briefly jump >20, in the Aug-Oct' time frame.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily



Summary

*first, an update on the VIX weekly..


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As for TVIX/UVXY, the net weekly declines are testament of the ongoing near total market complacency, along with the underlying problem of statistical decay in such leveraged instruments.

Of course TVIX/UVXY are not based on pure front month VIX, but on a number of VIX futures (2-3 months ahead I believe).

At some point in the late summer, TVIX/UVXY will likely soar... but the gains will be brief, and then the relentless decay will lead to new lows.
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*I hold LONG VIX across the weekend (from 12.98).... seeking an exit in the 16/17s... if sp'2060s next week. That is really the best case though, and I sure don't expect VIX to break/hold the key 20 threshold in the near term.

Thursday, 25 June 2015

NFLX - continues to unravel

Whilst the broader market closed moderately lower, there was significant weakness in Netflix (NFLX), which settled lower by -2.1% @ $664.43 (intra low $654.21), a considerable amount below the Wed' high of $706. Near/mid term outlook is for continued weakness. Primary target is $600, with secondary of 525/500 by Sept/Oct.


NFLX, daily


Summary

Little to add.

More than anything, NFLX is one stock to watch.. for pure entertainment reasons.
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*I am long term bullish on NFLX, and would even consider going long in the $75/70 (split adjusted) zone this coming Sept/Oct.

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

NFLX - maxed out for the summer?

With the broader market seeing a key break lower, Netflix (NFLX) saw a rather strong opening reversal (intra high $706.24), and settling -0.3% @ $678.93. The mid term trend remains bullish, but today's announcement of a 7 for 1 stock split.. along with Icahn revealing he has sold his remaining stake would make for a rather classic top.


NFLX, daily


Summary

*To be clear.. I am bullish NFLX across the longer term, but today's two coincident events would indeed make for a rather appropriate top.
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In terms of downside, if the broader market sees a sig' correction in the late summer, NFLX could trade as low as the giant $500 level. Of course, with the stock split (7 for 1).. that will equate to around $71... so... I would be looking for 'best case' downside in the 75/70 zone by Sept/Oct.
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*I generally have little interest in trading any of the momo stocks, but unlike many of the others - not least AMZN, TWTR, at least NFLX is set to generate a profit. Right now, I would consider a NFLX long into 2016, from the mid/low 70s.