Thursday, 27 August 2015

DIS - clawing upward

With the main market significantly higher for the second consecutive day, Disney (DIS) settled higher by 3.0% @ $102.19 (intra high $102.62). There is high threat of a moderate retrace to the 100/98 zone..before resuming higher to the initial break in the 112/110 zone.

DIS, daily

DIS, monthly


Suffice to say...  DIS looks due near term weakness.. but renewed upside next week.. and probably into mid Sept.

*I've never traded DIS, but do keep a close eye on it.. not least as it is a leading DOW constituent.

Wednesday, 26 August 2015

GDX - continuing to slide

With the precious metals lower for the third consecutive day, the related mining stocks were naturally weak. The ETF of GDX settled lower by a very significant -4.0% @ $13.12 (intra low 12.96). Near term outlook is for continued weakness in the metals.. the miners are set to break new multi-year lows.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Little to add.

Despite some of the usual gold bugs touting more upside - Sinclair was again touting $50,000 Gold, the broader trend in the metals remains weak.

Again, its notable that despite the broader equity market seeing significant gains, the mining stocks remain almost entirely dependent upon how the metals trade.

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

AAPL - swinging with the broader market

With US equities seeing a severe late day reversal, Apple (AAPL) lost almost all of its opening gains (intra high $111.11), settling +0.2% @ $103.32. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be dependent on whether the market can immediately resume upward from sp'1867

AAPL, 15min

AAPL, daily


Suffice to note, AAPL sure has seen some crazy price action lately. With the Monday opening flash print of $92.. AAPL then soared to a Tuesday open in the $111s.

Today's close was a mixed one. The daily black-fail candle is certainly bearish, and bodes for sub $100.. if sp' can't hold the Monday low of 1867. However, for now.. we do have a significant higher low.

The bigger monthly cycle has been suggestive of $90 since the key break of August 3rd. All things considered, I'd expect at least a return to the low 90s.. in Sept/Oct.

*I am long-AAPL from the $107s, earlier this afternoon, seeking an initial exit in the 109/111 zone.. but with today's bearish close... a profitable exit seems out of range for at least 2-3 days.

Monday, 24 August 2015

TVIX, UVXY - go nuclear as the VIX screamed

With equities opening severely lower, the VIX (after almost 30 minutes of radio silence) jumped into the 53s. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY opened higher by around 70%, but settled higher by 36.2% and 35.9% respectively.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, a look at the VIX....

Suffice to say... absolutely incredible opening gains in the TVIX/UVXY.. and even VXX... but with the market climbing... there was natural rapid cooling.

Despite losing half of the gains - with black-fail daily candles, TVIX/UVXY look due higher highs, as the VIX looks vulnerable to spiking into the 60s.. even 70s in the immediate term.

Crazy times... it makes 2011 look rather tame.

Friday, 21 August 2015

TVIX, UVXY - exploding higher with the VIX

With the US equity market imploding into the weekend, the VIX exploded higher to the 28s. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw extreme net weekly gains of 62.0% and 63.5% respectively. Near term outlook is highly uncertain, and will be dependent on whether the PBOC act.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 118.5% - the biggest ever?

As for TVIV and UVXY, I would believe (I have not fully checked) these were the biggest net weekly gains EVER.

Of course, at some point equities are going to see a bounce - at least to the sp'2040/50s, the VIX will rapidly cool - probably to the mid teens, and that will crush TVIX/UVXY.

As ever... for short term holds only!