Miners following gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a moderately bearish note, -0.7% at $18.55, and that made for a net monthly decline of -12.8%. The mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

With gold lower for a fifth month, and silver cooling for a third, its not exactly a surprise to see the gold miners follow to the downside. The August break of support was decisive, and we've already seen GDX break below the Dec'2016 low of $18.43.

The m/t outlook for gold and silver is bearish, with GDX vulnerable to a FULL retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.36. As a side note, its notable that Silver saw the lowest monthly close since Jan'2016.

Lets take a look at two of the key miners - which are the two biggest components of GDX,  Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX)

NEM

An August net monthly decline of a fierce -15.4% to $31.03, back to levels from Dec'2016. Any price action in the 28s will offer a bearish run to the 22s.
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ABX

A fourth consecutive month lower, settling -6.6% to $10.42, the lowest monthly settlement since Jan'2016 - when the broader mining complex was flooring.

Summary: whilst both companies are fundamentally sound, the m/t trends are absolutely bearish into late summer/early autumn. The related precious metals of gold and silver are m/t bearish, and offer ZERO sign of a floor/turn.

Arguably, even the most bold of gold bugs will leave ABX, NEM, and GDX... well alone.

Miners settle under support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.7% at $20.56, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.8%. Mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been settled under.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for the miners, pressured by ongoing weakness in the metals.

The daily/weekly close under multi-year support is decisive, and offers much lower levels into year end. Soft target is the Dec'2016 low of $18.43. A weekly/monthly close <18.00 would be decisive, and threaten a full retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.27.

The bold and cautious miner bulls will arguably leave the sector well alone.

Right now, I would only turn bullish with Gold >1400 or from 900/875.... whichever comes first. I accept the latter is a long way down, but the current m/t trend in gold is unquestionably downward.

Miners near key support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.3% at $21.32, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.1%. Near term outlook is bearish, as Gold has failed to hold the key Dec'2017 low.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

With gold cooling for a third week, the related miners naturally followed. GDX is nearing core price threshold of $21.00. Any weekly closes <21.00 would be exceptionally bearish. The fact gold recently failed to hold multiple aspects of support is suggestive that GDX will soon be sustainably trading <21.00.
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Two key miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Currently lower for a third month, but holding well above the 2017 lows.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Currently -14.5%, having broken below the 2017 lows. Lower wedge/trend support around $10.50.
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NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX. They are both superb miners, but with gold, silver, and copper, short/mid term bearish, the cautious will leave both stocks and the sector well alone.

Rough week for miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.8% at $21.96, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.9%. Near term outlook is bearish, as Gold has failed to hold the key Dec'2017 low.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

With Gold unable to hold the Dec'2017 low of $1238.30, the miners look in serious trouble.

The weekly candle in GDX was of the bearish engulfing type, and that leans s/t bearish. Things will turn VERY bearish with any closes under $21.00, which isn't that far down.

Best miners: NEM and ABX (the two biggest components of GDX), but the cautious will leave the sector well alone, not least with ongoing weakness in gold, silver, and copper.

Miners resilient to gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -0.3% at $22.61, but that still made for a net weekly gain of 1.3%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, I see the sector as highly problematic, as Gold this week came within 50cents of the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238.30. 

Note how GDX on Friday saw a reversal/cooling after filling the price gap. S/t bearish into next week.

More broadly, the miners have been stuck since early 2017. The more cautious will simply leave the sector alone, until a breakout... either side.