MRO - breaking into new ground

Marathon Oil (MRO) followed the main market, and closed the week with a very impressive gain of +2.8%, resting @ $36.15. Today was a historic close, and there is no sign of the current upward trend ending. There is literally no ceiling now, on what remains a profitable company.


MRO, daily

Summary

A very strong close..a breakout, and a new historic high. It really doesn't get any more bullish than this.

I have been following MRO quite closely in the past few weeks.  The past few weeks have provided a very powerful move higher, and MRO achieved an extremely important breakout closing level.

*I am not meddling in MRO yet, but will look to go long on ANY minor pull back in the weeks ahead.

Next key levels are pretty straight forward psy' levels of $40..and then the big $50.

If my hyper-bullish outlook for 2015/16 is broadly correct, then MRO has a fair chance at hitting $100.

First things first though...lets see if MRO can put in a few more daily closes above this old resistance level, and then make an attempt to $40.

RIG - rolling over

Transocean (RIG) has had a very strong run since the mid April low of $46s. RIG closed -0.6% @ $54.76, and considering the recent surge, it'd be natural for a minor retracement down to the 53/52 level. Mid-term trend - along with the main market, appears very strong.


RIG, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, RIG looks pretty good in the mid-term, but like the main market, it can't go up forever in a straight line.

A very minor retracement of 5% or so seems very likely in the near term.

Mid-term upside could be very substantial. A few daily closes in the low $60s will open up $75, and then $85.

GDX - miners digging deep again

With the precious metals seeing significant falls, it was no surprise to see the mining sector similarly hit. The Gold miner ETF of GDX slumped -4.6% @ $27.38. Near term trend looks pretty dire, and a break under the mid April low now looks a given.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

A somewhat fierce downside daily candle for GDX. It came very close to taking out the low from mid April, and frankly, that looks almost guaranteed tomorrow.

The monthly chart looks even worse, there really isn't any floor until the low 20s, which is a good 20/25% lower.

If Gold and Silver remain weak in the months ahead, there is little reason why the mining stocks will even be able to hold flat - even if the main market continues to battle higher.

It remains a dire trend, in the near term, mid term, and long term.

AAPL - still in a baby bull flag

Whilst the broader Nasdaq tech index clawed almost another percent higher, Apple (AAPL) was a major laggard, slipping 2.4% @ $443. Yet, AAPL is probably just in what is now a six day bull flag. A daily close in the mid 460s will confirm the flag, next big target remains $500


AAPL, daily

Summary

Suffice to say, I'm guessing its a bull flag. Perhaps another few days of very slight downside, but then up across the second half of May.

If that is the case, when AAPL breaks upward, it'll give an extra boost to other tech stocks in late May..and into June.

AAPL remains one to watch!

BKS - hysteria fading to reality

Barnes and Noble (BKS) ramped last Thursday, but the daily candle was a classic warning that it wasn't going to last. Despite a brief new high early Monday, the sellers are back, and BKS closed -9.3% @ $21.15, although the low was double that, @ $19.86.


BKS, daily

Summary

By the end of this week, there is little reason why BKS won't be back in the low 19s, or even 18s.

Regardless of the possible deal with Microsoft (MSFT) that might purchase the Nook e-book unit, BKS is still losing money on every book sold.

That is not a viable long term business model.