Friday, 22 June 2018

Miners still cooling with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly positive note, +1.2% at $22.18, but that still made for a net weekly decline of -0.2%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, the past few months have seen very tight price action. The near/mid term outlook for the gold miners is of course primarily dependent upon gold. Gold itself is struggling, approaching the critical Dec'2017 low of $1238. The cautious will leave the sector well alone until a break in Gold >1400 or <1230.

Friday, 15 June 2018

Miners cool with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a significantly weak note, -1.9% at $22.23, making for a net weekly decline of -0.6%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400, and there is zero sign of that any time soon.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

A pretty bearish end to the week for the gold miners, but broadly... its still the same trading range since early 2017. The two biggest components of GDX...

Newmont Mining (NEM)


Newmont is currently net lower by -1.0% at $38.40. The stock has been broadly choppy since late January, notably holding just above the key 10MA.
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Barrick Gold (ABX)


Barrick Gold is struggling, currently -2.9% at $12.81, unable to climb back above the key 10MA. It could be argued price structure since mid 2016 is one giant bullish wedge/pennant. However, that is perhaps being overly bullish, as the key commodity of gold is showing zero sign of breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold.
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Suffice to add, both stocks are superb companies. Of the two, Newmont is technically far stronger, but fundamentally, both are pretty equal. The sector is currently highly problematic, as gold remains broadly choppy, and leaning s/t bearish. The cautious will leave the sector alone until Gold >$1400.

Things would turn exceptionally bearish for the miners if Gold breaks under the Dec'2017 low of $1238. The Friday close of $1278.50 is rather close to that critical low.

Friday, 25 May 2018

Miners climb with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a weak note, -1.5% at $22.31, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 0.5%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things will only turn  decisively bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, a moderately net weekly gain, but broadly... it remains chop since early 2017.

Partly based on m/t bullish trends in copper and oil, I'm still leaning on an eventual bullish breakout in gold >$1400. For now though, there is ZERO sign of that happening any time soon, not least with a stronger USD, and rising bond yields. The more cautious will leave the mining sector alone until gold >1400 and/or GDX >26s.

Arguably, the two best miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM)



Barrick Gold (ABX)


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NEM and ABX remain the two biggest components of GDX. I like both, but the latter remains technically m/t bullish, until it clears the >16.00.

Friday, 18 May 2018

Miners knocked by gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a muted note, u/c at $22.19, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -3.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things would turn bullish if Gold >$1400, or exceptionally bearish if <$1230.

GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, gold is looking increasingly problematic, pressured via a stronger USD and higher bond yields/interest rates. The miners have been broadly stuck since early 2017, and for now... are showing little sign of exiting this unusually long trading range.

Friday, 11 May 2018

Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a slightly weak note, -0.3% at $22.88, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of +1.0%. Near term outlook is offering further broad chop. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Suffice to add, it was a choppy week for the gold miners, but managing a sig' net weekly gain, clearly helped by strength in gold and silver.

More broadly, seen via the weekly candle chart, the miners are just continuing to broadly churn since early 2017. Things only turn decisive above the Feb'2017 high of $25.50
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Two key miners....

Newmont Mining (NEM)



Barrick Gold (ABX)


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Both are fundamentally sound, but ABX is clearly technically weaker.

*NEM and ABX are the two biggest components of the ETF of GDX, and there is no reason to see that changing any time soon.