Tuesday, 30 June 2020

Miners following bullish gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a very positive note, settling +$1.12 (3.1%) to $36.68, and that made for a net June gain of +$2.36 (6.9%). The miners remain m/t bullish with Gold.

GDX, monthly



GDX, daily



Summary

A third consecutive net monthly gain for the gold miners, with a June high of $36.72, just a little shy of the May high. Having cleared the 2016 high, m/t bullish to 50/52.

Key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly


A net June gain of +$3.52 (6.0%) to $61.74. The June candle has a powerful hyper spike floor from $52.33, and leans s/t bullish. M/t bullish to giant psy'100... which is viable before year end.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net June gain of +$2.94 (12.2%) to $26.94. The June candle has a spike floor from $22.13, and leans distinctly s/t bullish. M/t bullish, with soft target of the $37s. New historic highs >50.11, will clearly require Gold sustainably >2K.
--
Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both are tier'1 quality miners.  

Saturday, 30 May 2020

Miners broadly pushing upward

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a positive note, settling +32cents (0.9%) to $34.32, and that made for a net May gain of +$2.06 (6.4%). The miners remain m/t bullish with Gold.

GDX, monthly



GDX, daily



Summary

A second monthly gain for the gold miners, with a May high of $37.49, the highest since Feb'2013.

S/t vulnerable to the 50dma - not least with a Thursday and Friday black candle, but broadly, the miners are strong. Having cleared the 2016 high, m/t bullish to 50/52.

--
Key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly


A net May decline of -$1.01 (1.7%) to $58.47, but having broken a new historic high of $69.13. The May candle is spiky. S/t over-stretched, with first support of 52/50.


Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net May decline of -$1.64 (6.4%) to $24.00. The May candle is spiky, and threatens s/t downside, with major support 21/20s.M/t bullish, with soft target of the $37s. New historic highs >50.11, will require Gold sustainably >2K.
--
Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both are tier'1 quality miners. 

Thursday, 30 April 2020

Exceptionally strong month

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bearish note, settling -$1.77 (5.2%) to $32.26, but that still resulted in a net April gain of +$9.22 (40.0%). The miners will be vulnerable, if the US market is smacked back lower into the summer.

GDX monthly



GDX, daily



Summary

The March spike low of $16.18 looks even more bizarre, after April printed $34.74... an effective 100% gain.

Along with gold itself, I am absolutely mid/long term bullish the gold miners. However, as we saw from mid Feb>mid March, if the main equity market gets smashed lower, the miners will also be impacted.... if briefly.

The more cautious will be side-stepping the sector until at least the sp'2600/500s, if not the mid 2300s the latter appears realistic within June/July.
--

Key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly


A net April gain of $14.20 (31.4%) to $59.48. having broken a new historic high of $64.65. The April candle is rather spiky. S/t over-stretched, with first support of 52/50.


Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net April gain of $7.40 (40.4%) to $25.72. The April candle is rather spiky, and threatens s/t downside. M/t bullish, with soft target of the $37s. New historic highs >50.11, will require Gold sustainably >2K.
--
Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both are tier'1 miners.

Tuesday, 31 March 2020

Miners decline for a third month

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bearish note, settling -$0.89 (3.7%) to $23.04, and that resulted in a net March decline of -$3.18 (12.1%). Despite a rough March/Q1, the m/t term outlook remains bullish with Gold.

GDX monthly


GDX daily


Summary

A third consecutive monthly decline for the gold miners, with GDX printing a hyper spike floor of $16.18 - the lowest level since Feb'2016, back when Gold was 1200/1100s. Note monthly volume totaled 2.2bn... a new record.

Cyclically, monthly momentum is set to turn negative at the April 1'st open. However, there is a clear divergence in the macd (black line), and it does support the notion that miners could resume upward with Gold across the spring.

Key components: Barrick Gold (GOLD), and Newmont (NEM).
Of those two, I favour GOLD, but both are superb miners.

Saturday, 29 February 2020

Miners end the month poorly

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a powerfully bearish note, settling -$1.93 (6.9%) to $26.22, and that resulted in a net February decline of -$2.77 (9.6%). Despite a major reversal, the m/t term outlook remains bullish.

GDX monthly



GDX daily



Summary

With Gold printing the $1691s, GDX broke above the 2016 high, with a high of $31.84. Yet... with Gold being whacked to the $1564s into end month, the miners settled February on a very bearish note.

The February candle is of the bearish engulfing type, and leans s/t bearish. I am still m/t bullish gold, and by default, the related miners.
--

The two biggest components of GDX:

Newmont (NEM)


Recent earnings were good, with Newmont breaking a high of $51.34. The month ended badly though, with Newmont seeing a net decline of -0.9% to $44.63. The February candle is extremely spiky from key price threshold of psy'50, and it leans s/t bearish. Still m/t bullish.


Barrick Gold (GOLD)


Recent earnings were good. Barrick Gold pushed to $22.50, but ended the month far below the high, settling +3.1% at $19.04. The February candle is very spiky from key price threshold, and leans s/t bearish.
--
Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD.