Friday, 25 July 2014

AMZN - smacked lower on lousy earnings

Amazon (AMZN) was smacked a very significant -12% lower in the early morning, after EPS of -27 cents, verses an expected -15. AMZN settled moderately above the lows, -9.5% @ $324. The Friday daily candle is suggestive of a recovery early next week.


AMZN, daily


AMZN, weekly


Summary

Without question, AMZN saw truly lousy earnings for Q2, even worse than the cheer leaders were hoping for, as if an expected loss of -15 cents would have been 'good'.

AMZN remains one of the most bizarrely valued companies in the entire US market. AMZN is one of the most badly run multi-national corporates out there. How can you have global sales of $70/80bn, and still fail to turn a profit? Capitalism.. and retail business.... at its worse.


Daily reversal

In terms of price, AMZN did close the day with a pretty clear reversal (hollow red) candle, which is suggestive of upside next week. However, there will now be stiff resistance in the 350/360 zone.

Even if the market can power into the sp'2100s later this year/early 2015, AMZN will face serious problems in re-taking the $400s.. which are now a major ceiling.
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*I would never trade the stock, even though I think it is over-valued by a factor of TEN. Indeed, I've been on the 'divide by ten' train with AMZN since I started this blog in spring 2012.

At some point the delusion will break, but for now, this is not likely the 'grand top', not least if the broader market is going to break new highs.

Thursday, 24 July 2014

FCX, TCK - mixed miners

Whilst the broader market saw some mixed chop, the miners were similarly mixed. Freeport McMoran (FCX), slipped -2.7%, whilst TCK jumped 1.2%. Near term outlook is choppy, but mid term outlook is bullish.


FCX, daily


TCK, daily


Summary

FCX was downgraded today by BoA/Meryl L.

TCK jumped on earnings.
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Suffice to say, I am a big fan of both companies...whose longer term outlook appears secure.

If you consider that commodity prices are likely to push higher from current levels - along with a broadly rising equity market, then these two miners are rather attractive at these levels.

Upside targets...

FCX, $50 - back to the high from early 2011.
TCK, $30/35 zone.....  

Both targets look very viable by spring 2015.

Wednesday, 23 July 2014

AAPL - good earnings, headed into the $100s

With unquestionably good earnings, Apple (AAPL) managed sig' gains, settling +2.6% @ $97.20. The stock is up a powerful 30% since mid April, and looks headed for the big psy' level of $100. At the current rate, AAPL will be in the 110/115 zone by late Oct.


AAPL, daily


AAPL, monthly


Summary

Without question, AAPL earnings were fine, and even Mr Market decided that was the case across Wednesday trading.

As many recognise, once a stock hits $90, it almost always keeps on pushing higher to the $100 threshold...and somewhat over.

Relative to the main market... AAPL is still 'cheap', and if sp'2100s later this year, then AAPL should be comfortably holding above $100..if not somewhat higher in the $110s.

Tuesday, 22 July 2014

NFLX - knocked lower on reasonable earnings

Despite the main market building gains across the morning, Netflix (NFLX) was notably weak, despite what were very reasonable earnings. NFLX settled a rather significant -4.6% @ $431. There looks to be very strong support in the $400s in August.


NFLX, daily


Summary

First, to be clear, NFLX is one of the last stocks I would be getting involved in. Yes, it is profitable, and yes..it has a good customer base. Yet, it is one of the hysteria/momo stocks, and I steer well clear of those.
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Earnings were unquestionably reasonable, but not surprisingly Mr Market has used it as a 'sell the news' event.

NFLX will no doubt find support in the immediate term at the 50 day...or worse case... in early August..the 200 day MA. A break under the $400 threshold looks somewhat unlikely.. not least since the sp'500 has a fair chance of breaking the giant 2000 level within the near term.
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If you believe in the sp'2100s later this year/early 2015, then NFLX has a high probability of battling to the big $500 level.

Monday, 21 July 2014

ANR, BTU - just another stinky day

Whilst the broader market saw moderate weak chop, there was particular weakness in the coal sector. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) settled lower by a significant -2.9% and -2.4% respectively. Outlook remains bearish.


ANR, daily


BTU, daily


Summary

Suffice to say, the broader down trend continues, whilst the main market is still broadly headed higher.

With the US Govt' still on a 'we hate coal' policy framework, the miners are facing huge resistance.

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I remain concerned that ANR will not survive in the longer term, although the lower the price goes... a hostile takeover becomes an increasing possibility.

*I have no positions in any of the miners, and would only consider getting involved after the main market has seen a multi-month down wave - which itself does not seem likely until next year.