Friday, 30 January 2015

GDX - huge monthly gains

With precious metal prices seeing powerful monthly gains, it was entirely natural that the gold/silver miner stocks also climbed. The miner ETF of GDX saw a pretty huge net monthly gain of $3.85 (21.0%) @ $22.23. Despite the gains, the precious metals remain broadly weak, and the miners look vulnerable into the summer.

GDX, monthly

GDX, daily


With the precious metals (esp' Gold) climbing into month end, the miners similarly saw a strong Friday, with GDX 3.0%.

Price structure is a possible bull flag, offering further upside to the $25s.. before the next major down trend.

Looking ahead

I remain a massive a fan/support of the precious metals miners (do you watch Gold Rush too?), but for now... best guess is one final wave lower into the coming summer.

If Gold $1000, or even the 900/875 zone, then it could cut GDX in half.... before this multi-year collapse wave (from spring 2011) finally concludes.

Thursday, 29 January 2015

BABA - good earnings... not good enough

Whilst the broader market saw continued swings/volatility, Alibaba (BABA) opened sharply lower (intra low $87.36) on earnings which were certainly reasonable, but just not good enough to placate a rather demanding Mr Market. BABA settled -8.8% @ $89.78. Next key support is the Oct' low of $82.81.

BABA, daily


Suffice to say... interesting company... although the BABA stock itself.. is of course.. not really an actual stock.

Outlook is broadly bullish.. huge profit margins look set continue.

Price structure is offering a test of the Oct' low.. before new highs later this year.

Wednesday, 28 January 2015

AAPL - jumps on superb earnings

Whilst the broader market saw a fair bit of minor price chop, there were strong gains for Apple (AAPL), having achieved superb earnings for Q4. AAPL settled +5.9% @ $115. Next target is the Nov' high of $119.. .which seems viable in the immediate term. There is viable Feb/March upside to the $125/130 zone.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Without question, with earnings of $3 for Q4, sent AAPL justifiably higher.

Suffice to add.... the Nov' high of $119 looks set to be broken in the near term.. certainly by mid February.

With annual earnings of around $12.. .that makes for a PE of barely 10.. which is frankly bizarre. Longer term upside looks to well above $200.. before the giant paper/QE bubble from 2009 blows up.

Tuesday, 27 January 2015

FCX - sharply lower on lousy earnings

With the broader market weak from the open, and with earnings coming in poorly, Freeport McMoran (FCX) opened sharply lower, settling -6.1% @ $18.38. With Copper approaching the deflationary target zone of $2.30/20s, FCX should put in a multi-year floor by mid summer.

FCX, daily

FCX, monthly


*I'll let others detail earnings. Suffice to say, lousy numbers... but not surprising, considering the continued broad downward trend in commodities since spring 2011.

The monthly MACD (green bar histogram) cycle is now on the very low side, I'd be surprised if FCX goes much lower than the $17s.

*I consider FCX one of the top miners in the world, and will be seeking to pick up a position by late summer.. with the intention to hold across 18/24 months into 2017.. when I anticipate a cycle peak in commodities.

Monday, 26 January 2015

GDX - looking highly vulnerable

With the precious metals having possibly seen a multi-week up wave complete, the mining stocks are looking equally vulnerable to a new down cycle. The miner ETF of GDX settled higher by 1.9% @ $22.15. The Nov' low of $16.34 remains in danger of failing by early spring.

GDX, daily


*The miners showed some surprising latter day strength, despite the metals holding rather significant declines.

The following scenario relates to a similar bearish outlook for the precious metals. The count is a 'best guess'... with the overall cycle relating to the ECM from Armstrong

GDX, weekly, count, with fibs

Suffice to add, by late summer.. if Gold $1000, or even the 900s... GDX could be half of current levels.

*no doubt, many of the gold bugs would be outraged at such a suggestion of renewed weakness, but then.. those same people have been buying GDX since spring 2011... when it was somewhat higher in the........... $60s