A year of chop for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a strong note, settling +2.4% at $21.09, which made for a net monthly gain of 11.1%, but that still made for an annual decline of -8.8%. The December settlement back in the $21s bodes bullish, at least in the s/t.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

A third consecutive net monthly gain, with GDX back above old support of the $21s. Its a 'curious' year end settlement, after what has mostly been a year of broad chop. Things would turn outright m/t bullish with any monthly settlement >25.00. That is still a considerable 19% higher.
--

Lets take a look at two of the biggest miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX)

A fourth consecutive net monthly gain, settling right around the upper trend. Any price action above the December high of $14.11 would bode for psy'20, and key price threshold of $21.50s.

Special note: Barrick Gold will be relisted as of Wednesday Jan'2nd 2019, having merged with Randgold Resources (GOLD). To be clear, the new name/ticker will be: Barrick Gold (GOLD) on the NYSE, whilst on the Canadian exchange, the ticker will remain ABX.

--
Newmont Mining (NEM)

A third consecutive month higher, settling just fractionally shy of the key 10MA. Note trend resistance in the $39s. Things turn decisive >40.00.
-
The more cautious will wait to chase any of the miners until Gold has a break above the multi-year trading range of 1072/1392. To be decisive, >1400s.

Miners catch a bounce

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a weak note, settling -1.1% at $18.93, but that still made for a net monthly gain of 2.2%. The mid term outlook remains bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under for three consecutive months.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, the miners ended October on a bearish note, not helped by cooling gold and silver. Whilst we did see a net monthly gain for GDX, note the upper candle spike from just under old support.... now resistance. The m/t trend remains bearish unless the $21s are re-taken. I do not see that happening in the remainder of the year.

Miners broadly weak

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bullish note, +1.0% at $18.52, but that still made for a fourth consecutive net monthly decline, -3cents (0.2%). The mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under for two consecutive months.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, August saw a monstrously bearish break of support. September has broken a new multi-year low of $17.28. With the m/t trend in gold and silver also bearish, the miners will remain under pressure into October/Q4.

Key miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Barrick Gold just this past week announced a merger with Randgold Resources (GOLD). I'm not sure when that will be formally signed off. It is safe to assume that the combined company will use the apt' ticker of GOLD.
-


Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Newmont declined for a fifth consecutive month. Yes, the September settlement was right on a key price threshold, but the m/t trend is clearly bearish.
-

Whilst both miners are superb (and are the two biggest components of GDX), both have to be seen as bearish, not least as gold and silver are broadly weak. Arguably, even the boldest of gold bugs will leave the sector alone for some months to come.

Miners following gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a moderately bearish note, -0.7% at $18.55, and that made for a net monthly decline of -12.8%. The mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been decisively settled under.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

With gold lower for a fifth month, and silver cooling for a third, its not exactly a surprise to see the gold miners follow to the downside. The August break of support was decisive, and we've already seen GDX break below the Dec'2016 low of $18.43.

The m/t outlook for gold and silver is bearish, with GDX vulnerable to a FULL retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.36. As a side note, its notable that Silver saw the lowest monthly close since Jan'2016.

Lets take a look at two of the key miners - which are the two biggest components of GDX,  Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX)

NEM

An August net monthly decline of a fierce -15.4% to $31.03, back to levels from Dec'2016. Any price action in the 28s will offer a bearish run to the 22s.
-

ABX

A fourth consecutive month lower, settling -6.6% to $10.42, the lowest monthly settlement since Jan'2016 - when the broader mining complex was flooring.

Summary: whilst both companies are fundamentally sound, the m/t trends are absolutely bearish into late summer/early autumn. The related precious metals of gold and silver are m/t bearish, and offer ZERO sign of a floor/turn.

Arguably, even the most bold of gold bugs will leave ABX, NEM, and GDX... well alone.

Miners settle under support

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the week on a bearish note, -0.7% at $20.56, and that made for a net weekly decline of -2.8%. Mid term outlook is bearish, as key support has been settled under.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

A fifth consecutive net weekly decline for the miners, pressured by ongoing weakness in the metals.

The daily/weekly close under multi-year support is decisive, and offers much lower levels into year end. Soft target is the Dec'2016 low of $18.43. A weekly/monthly close <18.00 would be decisive, and threaten a full retrace back to the Jan'2016 low of $12.27.

The bold and cautious miner bulls will arguably leave the sector well alone.

Right now, I would only turn bullish with Gold >1400 or from 900/875.... whichever comes first. I accept the latter is a long way down, but the current m/t trend in gold is unquestionably downward.