Tuesday, 22 July 2014

NFLX - knocked lower on reasonable earnings

Despite the main market building gains across the morning, Netflix (NFLX) was notably weak, despite what were very reasonable earnings. NFLX settled a rather significant -4.6% @ $431. There looks to be very strong support in the $400s in August.

NFLX, daily


First, to be clear, NFLX is one of the last stocks I would be getting involved in. Yes, it is profitable, and yes..it has a good customer base. Yet, it is one of the hysteria/momo stocks, and I steer well clear of those.

Earnings were unquestionably reasonable, but not surprisingly Mr Market has used it as a 'sell the news' event.

NFLX will no doubt find support in the immediate term at the 50 day...or worse case... in early August..the 200 day MA. A break under the $400 threshold looks somewhat unlikely.. not least since the sp'500 has a fair chance of breaking the giant 2000 level within the near term.

If you believe in the sp'2100s later this year/early 2015, then NFLX has a high probability of battling to the big $500 level.

Monday, 21 July 2014

ANR, BTU - just another stinky day

Whilst the broader market saw moderate weak chop, there was particular weakness in the coal sector. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) settled lower by a significant -2.9% and -2.4% respectively. Outlook remains bearish.

ANR, daily

BTU, daily


Suffice to say, the broader down trend continues, whilst the main market is still broadly headed higher.

With the US Govt' still on a 'we hate coal' policy framework, the miners are facing huge resistance.

I remain concerned that ANR will not survive in the longer term, although the lower the price goes... a hostile takeover becomes an increasing possibility.

*I have no positions in any of the miners, and would only consider getting involved after the main market has seen a multi-month down wave - which itself does not seem likely until next year.

Friday, 18 July 2014

TVIX, UVXY - a very mixed week

With the VIX swinging from a low of 10.59 to 15.38, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw sig' gains. Yet, the week ended badly, with TVIX and UVXY seeing net daily declines of -12.0% and -13.1% respectively.

TVIX, daily



*first, an update on the VIX weekly chart

We have a rather bizarre spike for this weeks candle. There is low probability that the 17/18s can still be hit next week. More likely, VIX will melt back into the 10s.. if not the 9s..when we see sp' break into the 2000s.

Across the week, TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly losses of -3.1% and -3.9% respectively. Certainly, from a day trading perspective, they remain interesting vehicles, but held across multiple weeks - whilst the VIX remains relatively low... they are very problematic in terms of the incessant decay issue.

My bigger outlook remains the sp'2100s...whether late this year or early 2015. On any basis, I have zero interest in being long the VIX for some months to come.

Thursday, 17 July 2014

DAL, UAL - airlines take a dive

With the broader market seeing significant declines after news of a downed Malaysia jet, it was no surprise to see particular weakness in the airline sector. Delta (DAL) and United Continental (UAL) both settled lower by -3.4%. Broader outlook remains bullish.

DAL, daily

UAL, daily


Suffice to say, with the main market rocked by the loss of a Malaysia passenger jet, the air line stocks were naturally especially hard hit.

However, the broader upward trends remain firmly intact - especially for the more stable Delta, and much higher levels are viable later this summer.

Wednesday, 16 July 2014

RIG - makes a break to the upside

Whilst the main market saw moderate gains, there was notable strength in the Oil/Gas drillers. Transocean (RIG), settled higher by a rather significant 1.9% @ $44.45.  We have a clear break above a multi-week bull flag, next upside target zone is $48/50.

RIG, daily

RIG, weekly


RIG remains another of my favourite companies.

For the regular readers of my main page, I've been noting RIG again lately, after what was a pretty clear large bull flag.

Today's jump higher breaks.. and confirms the flag.. and we're now on the way to the upper 40s.

Superb company, and a few years out.. I'd expect RIG to be in the $125/150 zone.