Thursday, 28 April 2016

GDX - continuing to push strongly higher

With precious metals on the climb, the related mining stocks similarly followed. The ETF of GDX of settled higher by a rather powerful 4.4% @ $24.26 - the highest level since Sept'2014. If Gold can push to the $1400/1500s this year... GDX is headed for the 35/40 zone - which will make for a 200% gain since the Dec'2015 low.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


With one trading day left of the month, the miners are set for another powerful net monthly gain of around 21%.

The precious metals look very strong, holding well above the breakout as achieved in February.

*If Gold 1400/1500s.. GDX should be in the $35/40 zone by late summer/early autumn.

Wednesday, 27 April 2016

AAPL - mid term troubles

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was severe weakness in Apple (AAPL), which settled lower by a very powerful -6.3% @ $97.75 - the lowest close since Feb'29th. Near term outlook offers further downside... not least if the sp'500 breaks under 2060 in early May.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Suffice to add.. Q1 earnings were truly lousy.. and the outlook isn't particularly great.

The market has always had a pretty low tolerance for AAPL - pricing it at what has remained a bizarrely low PE in the low teens.. or even under 10. Now the pressure is really on CEO Tim Cook, as the market is concerned that Q2.. or even Q3 won't offer anything much better.

If.. and it remains the ultimate 'if'... the main market FAILS to break new highs into the summer, then the market will rollover.. and break massively lower.

First key downside target is the Aug'2015 low of $91.11.

From there.. its essentially open air to key fib retraces of the 85s, 82s... and core support around $70.

For now.. talk of AAPL @ $70 will (understandably) be regarded as 'crazy talk'.

But if we are trading in the sp'1600/1500s this summer/autumn... that is where AAPL will (at least) have traded down to.

Tuesday, 26 April 2016

DIS - pokes above key resistance

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate chop, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which briefly pushed above the 200dma - and other aspects of resistance, but settling +0.3% @ $104.87. Near term outlook is extremely borderline. From a pure cyclical perspective, DIS - and the main market, are set for cooling mode.

DIS, daily



Suffice to add, DIS is a stock and company I think is a good barometer of the broader market. It has often warned of main market weakness since the market become stuck in late 2014.

Equity/DIS bulls should be battling for a monthly close in the $105s..  back above the monthly 10MA.

Best guess... renewed downside - along with the broader market, but the situation is very borderline.

Monday, 25 April 2016

KMI - full of bearish surprises?

With the broader market closing broadly weak, there was notable weakness in Kinder Morgan (KMI) which settled lower by a rather significant -3.4% @ $17.50. Next support is the very wide gap zone of $17-15.

KMI, daily

KMI, monthly, 6yr


*a notable fourth consecutive net daily decline.

Suffice to add, KMI has been stuck since early March around $19.

Near term outlook is bearish to the 17-15 zone.

The key question is whether the broader market - and indeed, KMI, will break the Jan' lows?

Best guess: YES... but that is predicated on the notion of sp'1800s (at least), with Oil back under $30.

*no position, but increasingly monitoring the stock/company.

Friday, 22 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - another net weekly decline

With US equity indexes breaking new multi-month highs, the VIX broke a new low of 12.50. The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY were naturally on the slide, with net weekly declines of -11.3% and -11.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers increased volatility into end month.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -2.9%

If the sp'2050/40s next week, VIX has a fair opportunity of pushing to the upper teens. Clearly though, sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for some weeks.

As for TVIX and UVXY.. a second net weekly decline, and both instruments naturally broke new historic lows this week.

Since the Feb'11th VIX high of 30.90 - with sp'1810...

TVIX, $13.58 - 3.54 :  -74%
UVXY, $61.92 - 15.51:  -75%

Those are unquestionably dire.. but not surprising numbers, considering such instruments are relentlessly under downward pressure via a number of factors, not least statistical decay.

*yours truly remains underwater.. and even TVIX back in the $5s looks a challenge... and that is with a bearish scenario of sp'2050/40s.. with VIX 18/19s.