Wednesday, 16 August 2017

MU - mid term super strong

Whilst the main market settled fractionally mixed, there was notable significant strength in Micron Technology (MU), settling +3.4% at $30.69. A break above the key $33.00 threshold will offer a fast run to the $36s. Any price action >37 will offer grander upside to 45/50 in 2018.

MU, daily

MU, monthly


Suffice to add, I really like Micron. The most recent earnings were superb, and the current valuation, offers a forward PE around 5. On any basis, that is ludicrously low, and frankly, the stock 'should' be priced at least double.

A mid term outlook to $45/50 doesn't seem overly bold, but it'll clearly require the main market to 'stay on the tracks' into spring 2018. On balance.. that seems probable.

There was notable option call buying today...

Jon Najarian, regular guest on the CNBC lunch hour show.

Traders were buying the Sept'33s and 36s. Those are pretty bullish upside trades, with barely a full month left on the detonator clock. Regardless of that short term trade though, the mid term outlook for MU looks very bullish indeed.

Tuesday, 15 August 2017

RIG - back to 1995

Whilst the main market saw a great deal of minor chop, there was very significant weakness in Transocean (RIG), which broke below the Jan'2016 low of $7.66, seeing an intra low of $7.55 - the lowest level since 1995, and settling -5.7% at $7.91. Near/mid term outlook is bearish, as WTIC and Nat' gas remain mid term weak.

RIG, monthly, 27yr

RIG, daily


Suffice to add, near, mid, and long term trends are unquestionably bearish.

The cautious will leave this stock, and the entire sector, well alone unless a break above declining trend, which for RIG is currently around $17.00... and that is a very long way up.

As an aside... for those with an interest in the bigger picture, the following is highly recommended...

yours.. no car.

Monday, 14 August 2017

NVDA - a powerful bounce

Whilst the main equity market settled broadly higher, there was a powerful bounce within Nvidia (NVDA), which settled +8.0% at $168.40. Last week's break of rising trend/support is still a problem though, and there remains high threat of another swing lower, at least to test last week's low of $152.91.

NVDA daily

NVDA monthly


Despite today's very powerful gain, the outlook is short term bearish, not least after last week's break of rising trend that stretches back to the mid April low of $95.39.

Seen on a monthly chart, NVDA looks frigtheningly bullish. First core support is around $120, which is currently 28% lower.

Unless the main market is close to a key top (the only sign of that is via the R2K), there is little reason to be mid term bearish NVDA. Recent earnings were certainly somewhat better than reasonable.

Friday, 11 August 2017

GDX - a significant weekly gain

With the precious metals catching a 'fear bid' this week on the 'Korean situation', the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day +0.3% at $23.15, which made for a very significant net weekly gain of 3.7%. Near term outlook is leaning bullish. Mid term is turning bullish with a fractional break of declining trend/resistance.

GDX daily

GDX weekly


It was a somewhat mixed week, starting weak, but then pushing upward as the equity/capital market became increasingly upset.

With the precious metals of gold and silver building an outright 'fear bid', the related miners followed. The weekly close is fractionally above declining trend/resistance, that extends back to the Feb' high of $25.71.

To have confidence, mining bulls need to see Gold >$1300, Silver >$19, and Copper >$3.00.

Those with a hyper bullish mining outlook require Gold >$1400, Silver >$22, and Copper >$3.00.

Arguably, the 'cautious bears' will only chase/short GDX lower on a break of the July low of $20.99.

Thursday, 10 August 2017

TVIX, UVXY - a powerful day higher

With equities closing significantly lower, there was powerful upside in volatility. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY settled higher by 26.8% and 26.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers sp'2435, which should equate to VIX at least another 1-2pts higher in the 17/18s. The key 20 threshold is a serious (if brief) threat.

TVIX daily

UVXY daily


Special update on the VIX, currently net higher for the week by a hyper powerful 59.9%

I have generally refrained from highlighting any of the VIX instruments since summer 2016, not least as the VIX-long trade has been frankly... dead.

With the sp' swinging from 2490 to 2437, things are getting a little interesting, and we've seen the VIX surge from the 9s to the 16s.

A three day series of gains have clawed TVIX and UVXY back to levels from early July. The mid May highs look out of range, unless next Monday sees a mini-crash to sp'2350/25 zone... which on balance, is extremely unlikely.

As ever, holding across multiple days or certainly - weeks, is extremely problematic for any leveraged instrument.