Wednesday, 16 April 2014

AAPL - holding the 200 dma

Despite the broader market seeing some significant gains, Apple (AAPL) is still struggling, but..importantly, holding above the 200 day MA. AAPL settled the day +0.2% @ $519. Near term outlook is moderately bullish, to the 530/550 zone.


AAPL, daily


Summary

Suffice to say, we have one of the tech giants holding the 200 day MA, and with the broader market now seemingly on a new multi-week up cycle, AAPL will likely be part of it.

First upside target is the 50 day MA of $530, and a secondary target of the $550 threshold.
-

Earnings for Q1 will be interesting to see, they are due next Wednesday, April'23.

Tuesday, 15 April 2014

GDX - miners whacked, as metals fall

With Gold and Silver prices snapping sharply lower, the mining stocks saw very significant declines. The ETF of GDX settled -2.0% @ $24.02. The big 20 threshold is in danger of bring taken out this summer, not least if the metals break the 2013 lows.


GDX, daily


GDX, monthly


Summary

*like the precious metals themselves, GDX closed with a daily reversal candle. However, today's decline is unlikely to be a sporadic down day.
--

With Copper under $3, Gold -$23,  and Silver -1.7%, the miners opened sharply lower, and remained weak across the day.

With metals appearing to be merely at day'1 of a new down cycle, there is very high risk of a few weeks of weakness, with GDX at serious risk of losing the 20s in late April/May.

Monday, 14 April 2014

KING - candy still getting crushed

Despite another vain attempt at a bounce in the broader market, King Digital Entertainment (KING) - makers of the infamous 'Candy Crush' game, saw another lousy day, closing -3.2% @ $16.96. Near term outlook remains very weak, and as many recognise..there isn't any floor to stop the declines.


KING, daily


Summary

Suffice to say, I do keep an eye on the IPO stocks, and this recent offering remains in a spiral. Certainly, it is not imploding that quickly, yet the price action has been very weak since the open, a mere 14 trading days ago.

Considering the market closed with gains, today's daily decline of another 3% is just outright dire.

Sub $10 looks likely this summer.
-

...now..back to the game.

Friday, 11 April 2014

TVIX, UVXY - volatility continues to rise

With equities seeing some major weakness this week, the VIX continued to rise, with net weekly gains of  22%. The 2x lev' (bullish) instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly gains of 10.2% and 13.7% respectively. If VIX can break into the low 20s next week, further gains of 15/20% seem likely.


TVIX, daily


UVXY, daily


Summary

First, an update on the VIX, weekly


--

Suffice to say, the 2x VIX instruments are set for further gains next week. Yet..as ever, even if we drop to the sp'1770s, VIX might stay in the low 20s for a just a matter of hours.

There is a 'small' possibility of a much deeper (sp'<1760) equity decline next week, but regardless, I expect the current down wave to conclude no later than next Wed/Thursday.

Thursday, 10 April 2014

TVIX - volatility breaks higher

With the VIX closing +15% @ 15.89, the 2x lev' (bullish) VIX instrument of TVIX, saw some powerful gains, settling +9.3%. Near term outlook offers VIX in the high teens, which should equate to a further 15/20% for TVIX.


TVIX, daily


Summary

*first an update on the daily VIX....


Even though VIX did not close in the 16s, it did manage an intraday break above what used to be key resistance. There looks to be reasonable upside to 17/18s Fri/Monday. Whether the 20s will be hit...that remains difficult to say.
--

*as ever..such leveraged instruments suffer from severe statistical decay, and are for very short term holds only.