Friday, 19 September 2014

GDX - another bad week for the miners

Whilst the broader equity market built gains, there was once again notable weakness in the mining stocks. The ETF of GDX saw a net weekly decline of -5.3%. For September so far, GDX has been smashed lower by -15.3%. Outlook remains.... absolutely dire.


GDX, monthly


*the third consecutive net weekly decline for GDX

Little to add from the many posts across the last few weeks.

So long as the precious metals continue to fall.. the miner stocks will also decline, regardless of however strong the main equity market might be.

Thursday, 18 September 2014

ANR, BTU - coal miners horror show

Whilst the broader equity market broke new historic highs, the coal miners were once again barred from the party. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) settled sharply lower, -7.1% and -4.9% respectively. Mid term outlook remains... dire.

ANR, daily

BTU, daily


The daily charts look horrific... but just consider the following...

ANR, monthly

BTU, monthly

With the US Govt' maintaining an effective 'war on coal'... the sector remains under constant downward pressure. There is ZERO sign of this sector destruction coming to an end any time soon.

Other notable weakness today

Arch Coal (ACI) -5.4%
Walter Energy (WLT) -14.4%.

Both of the above look vulnerable to ending up on the pink sheets...if not worse.

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

GDX - the slide resumes

Whilst equities closed with moderate gains, with the FOMC announcement out of the way, the metals resumed the downside trend, which naturally pressured the miners. The ETF of GDX settled lower by a rather significant -2.2% @ $23.47.

GDX, daily


Suffice to say... weak metal prices are going to keep the downward pressure on the miners, regardless of however strong the broader equity market might be.

GDX looks set to lose the $20 threshold.. at some point in the remainder of this year.

Tuesday, 16 September 2014

GDX - relatively minor bounce

With the broader market climbing back into the sp'2000s, and precious metal prices also rising, the miners gained. The ETF of GDX settled +0.3% @ $23.98. Near term outlook offers a continued bounce, but the $20 threshold looks set to be lost.. within 2-3 months.

GDX, daily


*I was queried my view on the ETF of DUST...(3x short miners). Naturally, that has done particularly well lately, as the mining stocks have been pressured by lower metal prices.- which themselves were pressured by a rising USD.

Suffice to say... a minor 2-3 week bounce in the metals seems likely... which will likely be reflected in moderate upside of 2-4% for GDX.

However, with the broader trends as they are, much lower levels for the mining stocks seem likely into year end.

Right now, Gold and Silver will likely take out the 2013 lows.. and if that is the case, then GDX will be sub $20. A grander multi-year floor target for GDX is likely in the mid/low later than later 2015.

*In terms of the ETF of DUST, that does bode for upside, but being a 3x leveraged ETF, there will be some severe decay issues (as ever). Multi-month holds... even when the trend is in favour... still often results in net losses.

Monday, 15 September 2014

FB, TSLA, TWTR - momo stocks slammed

Whilst the main market saw continued minor weak chop, there was rather severe downside in most of the momo stocks. Facebook (FB), Tesla (TSLA), and Twitter (TWTR) closed lower by -3.8%, -9.1%, and -5.2% respectively.

FB, daily

TSLA, daily

TWTR, daily


Suffice to say, the only notable significant weakness today was in the momo stocks.

What does it mean for the broader market? Probably.. very little. We've seen these kind of periodic smack downs a number of times this year, and overall.. it probably means nothing for the main market.

Regardless, for those who were short any of the momo stocks.. today was a great day... and a great opportunity to close out.. ahead of the next FOMC announcement.