Wednesday 31 January 2018

GDX - still broadly choppy

The gold miners ended the month on a positive note, with the ETF of GDX settling +1.3% at $23.75, which made for a net monthly gain of 2.2%. Price action since early 2017 has been broad chop. Things only turn decisively bullish with the 26s, or bearish <20.

GDX monthly

GDX daily


Suffice to add... I'm leaning to the broader bullish commodity outlook. Copper and WTIC are leading the way higher, and I see Gold and Silver (eventually) following upward.

If correct, we should see GDX break >$26.00, by late spring/early summer. From there, its technical empty air to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

My favourite miners remain Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM).

Tuesday 30 January 2018

UAL - upgraded by JPM

Whilst the main market settled significantly lower, there was notable strength in United Continental (UAL) which settled +1.9% at $67.01. JPM upgraded the stock to 'overweight', with a new p/t of $83. That isn't bold, considering the stock was trading in AH last week around 80/81.

UAL daily

UAL monthly


Suffice to note, last week's smack down was entirely unjustified, and its interesting to see someone from within the mainstream recognising realistic upside....

As things are, the stock is only fractionally net lower for the month. If the main market rebounds Wednesday, then UAL will manage a third consecutive net monthly gain. On balance, I think its likely.

Yours truly is m/t bullish to psy' $100. Again, considering the stock was trading at 80/81 just last week, $100 isn't bold by year end.

Friday 26 January 2018

GDX - miners higher with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +0.9% at $24.35, resulting in a net weekly gain of 3.0%. Near term outlook is bullish. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX daily


Suffice to add, the miners saw the sixth net weekly gain of the past seven weeks. This is rather impressive, with the miners matching gold and silver.

The cautious will wait to chase the miners until Gold >$1400s, and/or GDX >26.00s.
Best miners (and the two biggest components of GDX): Barrick Gold (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM).

Some miners - such as NEM, have already seen a bullish breakout this month, and it gives some confidence that the broader sector will follow into the spring.

NEM, monthly

Price structure is a giant bullish pennant.. now provisionally confirmed. A target of $50.00 isn't that bold.

Wednesday 24 January 2018

UAL - nose diving for no good reason

United Continental (UAL) saw fine earnings, but the stock had a very rough day, settling -11.4% at $69.05. Once again, there is mainstream chatter/concerns of a price war, not least as capacity is set to be increased. M/t bullish to psy' $100.

UAL daily

UAL monthly


I want to be clear about this...

Mr Market, 'they', or whatever you want to call it, is playing the same game it did Oct'19'th last year.

Talk of a 'price war', or concerns about 'higher capacity', have seen the algo-bots sell the stock hard.

Keep in mind, EPS was $1.40, slightly above market consensus of $1.34, and the stock initially jumped to the 80/81s. It was only with the conf' call that chatter about a price war and capacity saw the market sell the stock.

I consider this absolute NONSENSE, just like last October.

Earnings were good. The company correctly recognises higher capacity is needed across the mid term to grow the company. This is unquestionably bullish.

The only reason anyone should be bearish the airlines is if they believe the current multi-year economic growth cycle is at/close to concluding, ahead of a recession. For the record, I do NOT see a recession until at least latter half of 2019, if not 2020.

Technically, the stock is clearly 'broken' in the short term, but it should build a floor soon, probably around the psy' $70 threshold. I'm m/t bullish to giant psy' $100, which is actually still viable before year end, but certainly by mid 2019.

I can understand if the more cautious will favour the 'less turbulant' Delta (DAL). Regardless, with an FPE in the 11/10s, I see UAL as bullish on both a value and growth perspective.

yours...  prefers trains.

Tuesday 23 January 2018

NFLX - higher subs, higher prices

Netflix (NFLX) soared on 'fine' earnings, settling +10.0% at $250.29. Mr Market is especially inspired at the ongoing situation of higher subscriber numbers, whilst the company now has the pricing power to raise prices. M/t bullish, with next target of psy' $300. The hyper bulls will be seeking $500 within 18-30mths.

NFLX daily

NFLX monthly


Suffice to add, Netflix is doing exceptionally well. With the US/world economy growing, its not only able to build its subscriber base, but is now also able to periodically raise prices.

A few in the mainstream are starting to recognise that the company could double monthly subscription prices to around $20, and most customers would not cancel. I've no doubt the company will raise prices within late 2018/early 2019.

If you assume annual earnings of $2, that gives a PE of around 125. On any basis, that is ludicrous, but you could have argued that at any point in 2017, 16, 15, 14, or 2013. Higher subscriber numbers, higher prices... that IS bullish.

yours...    Bullish Jessica Jones, The Punisher, and Stranger Things.

Friday 19 January 2018

FCX - big money call buyers

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) settled +2.9% at $19.96. The Dec'2017 close >$17s was decisively bullish, and offers first target of 24/25s, with secondary of 35s. The latter will clearly need copper around $4.00, which does seem viable this summer.

FCX daily

FCX monthly


Suffice to add, December saw a powerful breakout for FCX. Today saw a hit of the psy' $20 threshold, and we're well on the way toward first target of 24/25. Frankly, if you believe copper will eventually push to the $4s later this year, then secondary target of $35 is a valid target.

There was very significant call buying today...

Pete Najarian of highlighting the FCX call buying

As at the Friday close, >66000 traded in the Feb'16th $22 calls, and >22000 of the March $23 calls.

Valid alternatives to FCX include: Southern Copper (SCCO) and Teck Resources (TECK). Of the three, I actually prefer SCCO, which is leading the way higher. FCX garners more attention though, as was especially seen today in option land.

yours.. bullish miners.

Thursday 18 January 2018

GE - an eleventh month lower

Whilst the main equity market saw a day of minor swings, there was very significant weakness in General Electric (GE) which settled -3.3% at $16.77, the lowest level since Nov'2012. Short/mid term outlook remains bearish to the $13s.

GE monthly

GE daily


Suffice to add, a fourth day lower, as the mainstream rats are bailing from the sinking ship. Did anyone really think the Dec'2017 low of $17.24 was the ultimate low?

Seen on a giant multi-year chart, the horror story is clear to see, as the stock has imploded from the $31s in summer 2016 to today's $16s... effectively cut in half.

Its bizarre that some of those investing other people's money are still resolutely 'holding on'...

Nygren of Oakmark

Nygren didn't give any upside price target on CNBC this lunchtime. Instead, just whimsical talk about how things are changing. I will hope they invite him on again when the stock is trading at $13, whether late spring, or the summer.

A sideline note is how Kevin 'shark tank' O'Leary is regularly touting the $13s. As far as I know, I was the first to tout the $13s. Is O'leary a reader of mine? Regardless, it should be clear, GE will never return to its former glory. With the vultures circling overhead, its set to be broken up.. and eventually kicked from the Dow.

Wednesday 17 January 2018

ABX - the best gold miner

Barrick Gold (ABX) settled the day -3.8% at $14.62, and is currently net higher for the month/year by +1.0%. S/t outlook is a little mixed, as the m/t bearish trend remains intact. Things would turn very bullish >$17.50, and especially if Gold >$1400. Preliminary results for 2017 were arguably 'reasonable'.

ABX daily

ABX monthly


More than anything, I'd first suggest you go browse the company site:


NEWS: Barrick Gold announced preliminary results for 2017...


Quarterly results will be released Feb'14th.

Barrick Gold has been my favourite gold miner for some years. Its soundly based, and will be primed to benefit if Gold and Silver can eventually follow copper upward.

Technically: S/t mixed, with soft target of the minor gap zone, and then the 200dma in the low $16s.

The mining/ABX bulls need to see a monthly close >$17.50 to break the m/t bearish trend.

Price structure since summer 2016 is a valid giant bullish pennant. If correct, hugely bullish implications for later this year, and across 2019.

Arguably, most important of all, is the Gold price itself.

Gold, monthly1b

Gold has been broadly choppy for over a year. Things would turn very bullish with a break >$1400. Considering m/t price action in copper and oil, I do expect gold to eventually break >1400. Only bearish gold if <1200, which really looks unlikely.

Friday 12 January 2018

GDX - continuing to climb

With gold higher for a fifth consecutive week, the miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the day +2.6% at $24.00, resulting in a net weekly gain of 1.4%. Near term outlook is bullish. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX daily


The miners are continuing to climb from early December, as gold and silver are also generally positive. More broadly, price action remains choppy. Things would turn decisively very bullish with the $26s, which would then offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

The bigger issue for the gold miners is whether gold can see a decisive break/hold above the $1400 threshold. If that is seen, the miners will really start to fly. For now, most individual miners are holding within m/t bearish trends, and that includes my most favoured miner of...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Price structure since summer 2016 is a viable giant bull pennant. For ABX, the m/t bearish trend would conclude with price action >$17.50. That looks out of range within the near term, but is certainly viable by late spring.

The bold could be buying, with a stop at the recent low of $13.28. The cautious will chase >17.50, although that number is lower with each month.

Thursday 11 January 2018

KBH - building higher

Whilst the main market settled broadly higher, there was very powerful upside in KB Home (KBH) which settled +12.3% at $38.58, the highest level since June 2007. Its technically open air to next big resistance of $45, which is very viable by early summer.

KBH monthly

KBH daily


Earnings were good, if not arguably 'superb'. KBH is a prime example of underlying and accelerating US economic growth.

Bullish to at least $45, and frankly, secondary target of 62/67 looks very probable, but clearly far more viable in 2019.

Wednesday 10 January 2018

WYNN - mid term strong

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) settled -0.9% at $162.00. The stock has seen some choppy cooling since the Dec'28th high of $171.06. The mid term trend remains powerfully bullish, with soft target of the $175s.

WYNN, monthly

WYNN, daily


I only follow the stock on a bigger perspective, as seen via the monthly chart.

Short term, WYNN is just seeing a little weak chop, after breaking a new multi-year high in late December.

Mid term, the stock is super strong, having climbed from $48.04 in Jan'2016. There is clear resistance around the $175s. Any monthly close >175 will offer soft psy' $200, and then the March 2014 historic high of $227.48. The latter is clearly a long way higher, and will likely take at least until Q4 to reach.

Valuation: FPE 24s. Y 1.2%, NM 6.2%, and those numbers are very similar to both LVS and MGM.

Of the three, I actually favour LVS, with WYNN second, and MGM in third. Its notable that MGM is seriously lagging the other two.

Bonus chart: LVS, monthly

Price action since early 2016 in LVS, is rather similar to WYNN. I've a grander target for LVS of $100 by mid 2019.

Tuesday 9 January 2018

GILD - big money call buying

Whilst the main market continued to battle upward, there was powerful strength within Gilead Sciences (GILD) which settled +5.0% at $78.10. There is a clear bullish breakout, and the door is open to first big target of $90. With an FPE in the 10s, yours truly is m/t bullish to $100/10 before year end.

GILD daily

GILD monthly


Gilead Sciences saw a decisive bullish breakout, pushing straight through resistance in the $76s. Seen on the bigger monthly chart, the January candle is giving major support to the notion of the key higher low of $69.57 seen last November. Soft target has to be around $90.

Interestingly today, there was notable call buying in the May $90 calls...

Pete Najarian of highlighting unusual activity

Today's 'big money' call buying is a good sign, and gives extra confidence that my original outlook is soundly based.

This afternoon, Gilead caught further mainstream attention, via the JPM health conference...

With an FPE in the 10s, the stock is unquestionably superb value, and could easily see $90 by late Feb/March.

yours... no fan of health/bio stocks, but GILD is 'fine'.

Friday 5 January 2018

GDX - a fourth week higher

With gold and silver higher for a fourth consecutive week, the miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day -0.2% at $23.67, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 1.8%. Near term outlook is bullish. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.

GDX weekly

GDX monthly


A fourth weekly gain is kinda interesting, but when seen on the bigger monthly chart, its still a case of 'broad chop' for the better part of a year.

Things would turn decisively bullish if GDX can break the Feb' high of $25.71, which would open up a run to the summer 2016 high of $31.70. Copper and oil are both indirectly bullish signals for gold/silver, and the related miners.

For those who like a little adventure...

Fascinating to watch, but there is no way I'm crawling in there!

Bullish miners, especially those seeking gold, silver, and copper ones.

Wednesday 3 January 2018

MU - a second day of gains

Whilst the main market held moderate gains into the close, there was further significant strength in Micron Technology (MU) settling +3.0% at $44.98. A second attempt to clear psy' $50.00 is due, and from there, a fast run to the 70/75 zone.

MU, daily

MU, monthly


Suffice to add... all those getting overly twitchy last week are now starting to get confident of an eventual break above the psy' $50.00 threshold. For the m/t longs, whether that is before end January, or not until the spring, it just doesn't much matter.

Yours truly remains m/t bullish to $100 by spring 2019. With an FPE in the 4s... that really isn't bold at all.