Monday 30 April 2012

AAPL - starting to look ugly again

Apple had a rough day, even though the main market was only a mere 0.5% lower in general. Since earnings last Tuesday AH, AAPL is down over $35 from the peak - which interestingly was none other than a black-doom candle, very much warning of a failed gap/rally.

AAPL, daily

Bears need to see a break below the recent 580 support level - which has already failed of course. would seem unlikely that 580 will hold. In which case first target for AAPL would be the previous low of 555. A break of 555, would arguably open the door to a big move to $500.*

*such a move/outlook in the near term for AAPL would be suggestive of a break in the SP <1340..and probably sub'1300.

So..keep an eye on AAPL, as many often note ...AAPL is the Market these days.

BKS - 10am intra-day special update

Some crazy price action in BKS. Due to the MSFT deal about the Nook, BKS is seeing severe bear covering in pre-market..and now they are selling it off HARD.

BKS, daily

*some interesting options hyper-ramp in the May Calls at the open (much lower gains a mere 30mins later)

Very low volume, so it looks like very few will be part of that

The ultimate black doom candle?

Todays candle is a pretty dire one for those who are still looking to hold beyond this today. Where is the follow through?

Saturday 28 April 2012

AMZN - still failing, contrary to mainstream opinion

Amazon's earnings on Thursday were extraordinarily bad, yet the stock soared over 15% during Friday trading. The hosts across the various financial clown channels were endlessly touting 'blowout numbers', yeah, those numbers sure did blow.

Over the last few years we've sure seen some truly crazy times where the market - or an individual stock, has soared on baseless rumours, mass delusion, or nothing less than mass hysteria (such as those social media IPOs). Yet here we are again, one of the worlds biggest online retailers posted lousy numbers, and the stock soared.

AMZN, weekly

AMZN, daily

In terms of stock price, AMZN is now in a very strange place. For some time to come, 'technicals' are arguably pointless to consider. Clearly the giant bear flag on the weekly cycle has been nullified, and the daily chart now just looks plain bizarre. Doubtless a lot of the rise on Friday would have been short covering 'at any price'.

Amazon...losses to come?

First, see this excellent posting on Amazon Surges on Collapsing Margins...
The comments are also especially worth reading!

So the truth is that AMZN's operating margins actually declined even further to just 1.5%, compared to 3.2%, and this is a 'blowout number'? 
see: stats (although Q1 data not yet listed):

With a weaker economy - which is already the case in both Japan and across the EU, AMZN is going to suffer. With weaker sales, and slightly higher input & operating costs, it won't take much for it to start posting huge losses. For the moment, anyone who recently shorted AMZN has just got nailed.

Given a few more quarters though, I'm still looking for AMZN to start posting losses.

NUE - good quality heavy industrial, but weakening

Is Nucor a clue to possible weakness in the underlying industrial sector? Whilst the main indexes saw a very strong turn around after Monday's initial fall, Nucor has remained weak.

NUE, daily

We have a broad moderate down trend, and a baby bear flag right now. A break under the 200 day MA at 38.47 would likely take Nucor down a further 10% to just under the $35 level. Only a break above $44 right now would inspire me to turn bullish on this stock.

Friday 27 April 2012

AXP - the long term up trend...continues

American Express continues an incessantly strong multi-month uptrend, I guess it comes down to the issue that 'debt is where the money is'.

AXP, daily

Near term upside would be around $61/62. From a MACD cycle perspective, AXP will go + cycle Friday morning - so there will almost certainly be follow through to close the week extremely strong. Only a move under the lower channel line of $55/54 would be bearish.

From an 8 month perspective on the daily chart, AXP has had one strong and consistent upward run, and right now, there is no sign of a turn lower...not even a moderate consolidation.

I can only imagine how many consumers in the western world are buying all their iPhones and iPads with their American Express card. AAPL and AXP...the foundation of the US economy. Great huh?

Thursday 26 April 2012

AKAM - CEO upset

AKAM is one of my favourite tech' stocks, and today is got massacred after earnings failed to meet expectations. and with the CEO deciding to quit (although he might stay as long as late 2013)

AKAM, daily

The multi-month uptrend has indeed come to an end, and we recently saw was arguably a standard back test. With the break below $34, the next level of support is $31..and then the 200 day MA, presently 29.35.

Clearly, even if the indexes continue to cycle upward, AKAM is probably going to remain a rattled stock for some days, if not a few weeks. Only a break below $26 would make me bearish on this stock in the long term, it remains infinitely better and more reliable than most of the other tech' junk out there - not least the 'social media' nonsense/hysteria stocks.

FCX - still trending lower

Freeport McMoran remains my favourite miner, but with the global economy showing serious weakness, and commodity prices also weak, its stock is very much reflecting such issues.

FCX, daily

Only a move above the channel line of $38 would make me moderately bullish on FCX. Arguably, only a break above 40/41 would seriously change the trend.

The miners remain one of the most battered sectors out there (see GDX charts as recently posted), in the near term and into the summer it looks like FCX will probably continue to trend lower. A break under 35.50 would then open up the next primary target - the big $30 level.

Wednesday 25 April 2012

AAPL - black candle warning?

Apple earnings were superb, once again this corporate behemoth surprised many. Yet AAPL closed today with a black candle on the daily chart. These are certainly not always harbingers of doom, but...they are often are!

AAPL, daily

Only a break above the recent (what had appeared to be a wave'2) high of 620 would make me bullish on AAPL - when taking into account the current state of the main indexes.

Relative to other stocks, AAPL is under-valued by around 45%, but for the moment...probably best left alone.

GE - bear flag, but momentum turning up

General Electric is displaying a clear bear flag on the daily cycle. If the bears are going to see the market break lower in the days ahead, they'll likely need to see stocks like GE break and confirm such flags.

GE, daily

Bears really need to see GE break the flag, and also the $18.50 support level. If that can be done, then first target is $17 and then low 16s.

From a MACD cycle perspective though, GE is due to +cycle either tomorrow or Thursday. That would argue against the bearish case.

Tuesday 24 April 2012

SHLD - so much for the big rally

Sears is failing to hold any of the key support levels. The decline is certainly slow, but it has lasted over 5 weeks now, and the stock has lost around 35% since the double-top event.

SHLD, daily

Next key level is the big $50 - which came close to testing earlier today. Then, $45, $41/40. Many have called for Sears to fall to single digits, since it has serious structural problems which it does not seem likely to be able to fix any time soon.

Certainly, its kinda late to think about shorting this right now, but neither is it an attractive buy - not least on fundamentals. Best left for entertainment/viewing purposes only.

BKS - big jump higher, but unlikely to hold

Barnes and Noble today has a major new 12% shareholder. I'm fuzzy on the details, but suffice to say, it looks like someone has come in and looks set to either buy it outright at some later stage, or they will want to actively get the board to start selling off parts of the company to 'release share holder value'. Yeah, that will really end well - as Sears will also probably come to realise across this year.

BKS, daily

I would be surprised if BKS can hold up around these levels for very long. Considering the monthly index cycles - which could take us all the way down to sp'1150 in the next 3-6 months, BKS will find it tough to hold above the big $10 I believe.

Lets be clear, for the moment at least, BKS is still losing money. As the joke goes 'they lose money on every sale, but make up for it on volumn'.

Monday 23 April 2012

NFLX - being destroyed after hours

Despite seemingly okay numbers, the market is destroying Netflix in after hours trading, currently $87, -$19 (-18%) as I type.

NFLX, daily, 2yr

We have a key break of what I had considered could be a giant bull flag/wave'2/B, but NFLX has decisively broken below the flag, and there is now a lot of empty air until the previous December'2011 low of $62.

NFLX, daily, 5yr

Considering the wider economy - which is unquestionably weak, my target for NFLX would be around $40. A break of $40 would suggest an ultimate floor in the $30>20 zone. That is indeed a horrifically long way down. So much for any near term chance of getting back to the $200 level, never mind the July'13 2011 peak of $304.

Sunday 22 April 2012

ANR - Coal companies..still in a hole

If Alpha Natural Resources is any indication, the coal miner stocks are due for yet another cycle lower.

ANR, daily

ANR, weekly

The bigger picture is one of true horror. You can see the 2008 commodity boom - that imploded violently, and we are right back to those crazy lows.


The coal companies are already beyond the destroyed stage, and yet with Sp'1380 - and likely near term downside to 1340/1300 (if not much further), ANR..and others look set to break new historic lows.

Were a major market down cycle to occur (sp'1150?), we would arguably see most of this sector lose another 30/50%. The horror indeed!

*next earnings for ANR, pre-market, Thur' May'3

Saturday 21 April 2012

AMZN - still on the edge

Amazon has earnings this coming Thursday, it will likely be a good indicator of  the state of broad national (and international) retail demand.

AMZN, daily

AMZN had a little black warning candle on Thursday, and Friday closed a touch lower. Bears need to see a break below 185, and then 165. Only a break above 215 would make me bullish on AMZN, and even then, the fundamental problem is that the company does not make much money.

AMZN, weekly

The weekly cycle is showing a clear and rather big bear flag. You could count a simple ABC wave structure, and we could be in wave'1 down. First primary target remains 150, 135, and then the hugely psychological $100 level.


Without question, AMZN is one really important company to watch. With razor thin margins, will it actually post a 'surprise' loss this Thursday? Market is expecting Q1 EPS 7 cents. That is simply beyond razor thin, and I would not be surprised if we see -15/25 cents. Anything worse than that, and the market would start freaking out about the near term outlook.

AMZN has a good long term outlook, but its mid-term profitability looks lousy, and I hold to my overall 'fair value' target of around $100.

Friday 20 April 2012

AAPL - on its way to 500

A quick look at Apple, where we have a near perfect rollover in progress. Wave'1 and 2 are complete...we're now in wave'3 down. First target is 540/50...then next Friday.

AAPL, daily

I'll return to this stock on Tue/Wed, the action next week should be severely to the downside. It remains a very risky stock to play though, with earnings Tuesday AH.

NUE - Great company..but suffering

Nucor is one of my favourite industrials, but it suffered one of its biggest falls (5%) in a very long time.

NUE, daily

Today was especially weak, after earnings were posted in the morning. The numbers were arguably reasonable, but clearly the market is not interested in holding this stock any more at this level.

Next key levels are 38.50 - the 200 day MA, but I'd guess that won't hold either.

Best target would be $35..sometime in May/June.

As noted, great of better industrials out there, any market pullback/correction, it will suffer greatly. Today's action was arguably the last real warning for any short term holders to 'GET out!'.

Thursday 19 April 2012

AAPL - rolling over, with a big snap coming

Despite the anti-apple incessant whining out there across the web, I am supportive of AAPL. They have a superb huge customer base, and they still have great profit margins.Yet, the near term outlook is for a large fall.

AAPL, daily

Near term targets: 550/540.

If we see AAPL in the me, it would be suggestive of a move to 440 within the next 1-3 months.

LEN - following the main indexes

Lennar has had one incredible run, and has been exceeding the mid-term upward trend of the main indexes exceptionally well. LEN has risen from $12 last October to $28 just a few weeks ago. It is a truly incredible move considering the housing market is still massively weak, and the underlying macro-economic picture remaining bleak.

LEN, daily

The LEN chart looks very much like the Sp'..we've a clear bear flag..and the first target would be $22. A break under 22 would open up the 200 day MA -currently $19.10.

So, from a short perspective, there is a possible 20% 'best bearish case' downside in the next 2-6 weeks.

Wednesday 18 April 2012

YPF - Assasinated by Argentina

Those crazy socialists are doing it again. They are launching pirate-style raiding parties for the European loot. The Government of Argentina is effectively stealing privately assets from what is a largely Spanish owned company. The Spanish Govt' are obviously kicking up a real stink, not that it will make any difference.

YPF - daily

Arguably, the YPF equity is now almost worthless...and today's action displayed truly desperate 'sell at any costs!" trading.

The thieving socialists of South America....what can the Spanish do to retaliate for this grand theft?

YPF will probably be a major corporate story in the weeks to come, as there is already talk of economic sanctions via the EU/IMF.

Ebay - bear flag..or floor?

Ebay is a good company, but its looking vulnerable to a secondary wave lower.

Ebay, daily

Clear levels..
37+...floor is in..and we're going to challenge for new  highs
sub 35..and we'll be looking to test the January breakout level of $32/30.

I'm a very big fan of Ebay.. good company, and arguably recession proof to a large extent (poor people selling their stuff online to raise cash theory)...but from a price perspective, Ebay looks vulnerable to 15% fall - the 200 day MA at $32 would indeed be a prime attractor/floor.

Tuesday 17 April 2012

GDX - miners...bear flag..again

The miners look primed to make a new break lower.

GDX, daily

On the daily, we have a clear bear flag, only a break back above $51 would seriously suggest there is a new up trend underway.

GDX, monthly

The mid-term out for the miners looks pretty dire. Many of the individual stocks look set to lose somewhere around 10-20% across the next 3-6 months. The weaker miners may lose as much as 30..even 50%.

If the deflationists are correct..and if the US does slip into a recession by Q4 - after it becomes clear the European basket case..really IS one giant basket case, then the main indexes should at least be down to the equivalent of Sp'1150/1200 no later than October.

AAPL, still cycling lower.

Apple remains weak, and is experiencing its first real pullback since last November, when it was a mere $360.

AAPL, daily

AAPL is in day'5 down...another 2-3 days of decline would be pretty reasonable to expect in what is a long awaited correction.

We did see a brief foray into the 570s today..and I'd guess we will probably touch the 50day MA, which by Friday will be around the 565 level - where there is also a gap from early March. Whether we can break into the 540s (where a soft trend line is)...we'll just have to watch patiently.

AAPl remains a pricey stock, but on valuation terms its still cheap (around 40% discount to main Price/Earnings) compared to all the other nonsense out there. It remains somewhat depressingly lame that traders/clown channel media still get so obsessed about the nominal price of a stock, rather than its actual valuation - whether based on earnings, book value..or whatever.

I can only hope AAPL will do a stock split sooner, rather than later. Maybe the recent move by the GOOG will have inspired them a little.

TVIX - Holders...what do you do?

I'm reminded of the words by Dennis Hopper from the movie Speed. The question to each and every one of those battle scarred holders is ...'what do you do.....WHAT do... YOU do???'

TVIX, daily

TVIX holders have had such a terrible time since last Octobers market index low, losing around 95% - although of course, how many were holding during all that time? Is a short term low in for TVIX, or is it about to break sub $5 in May? Today was a very mixed trading day, but for the moment, the indicators are still saying UP.

VIX, rainbow, daily

The VIX today was tantalisingly close to breaking the recent high of 21.00..but no, at least not yet. VIX remains in a bullish near term cycle though, and remains above the 10 SMA and 10 EMA (I use EMAs on the rainbow charts). Arguably a break over 21...would lead to a quick move to 24...which would likely equate to sp'1340.

So what do they do?

TVIX holders should surely at least have a stop in the 7s, if not $8.00 level, especially those lucky/high risk buyers from the 5s. TVIX remains a broken ETN, suffers from severe statistical decay....and in my best left alone, permanently!

Monday 16 April 2012

LVS - place your bets

LVS is still in a very strong up trend, but its looking weaker in terms of momentum.

LVS, daily

Arguably, a break under 58..opens the door to a fall to 50. That is of course a pretty significant move lower, around 17%, but would fit in with the idea of SP'1340...sometime later next week.

Upside is actually as high as 68/70 - within the current, if SP' can somehow magically break 1422 by end-month...then LVS to the low 70s in May?

LVS has been relatively stable lately in terms of volatility, but if it does break just a dollar or two lower, then we could see a few 3, 4, or even $5 range days.

Sunday 15 April 2012

AAPL - finally rolling over?

Apple had a rough close on Friday, falling almost 3% to the 605 level.

AAPL, daily

It is entirely acceptable from the bullish case for AAPL to hit the next soft support at 585/80...and then start a run upward for rest of the month, and into earnings.

Even a move down to the 50 day MA at 550/560 would not be too bad a situation for long term AAPL holders. Having risen almost in a straight line from 360 to 640 in just 6 months, some kind of significant retracement would be very normal. A 50% retrace to the huge psy' level of $500 would be a primary target for any good bear out there.

One final note, I do indeed expect that like GOOG, AAPL will do a stock split. I'd guess that won't happen this quarter, but very likely in Q3 or Q4. Of course, if the main market slips to sp'1150 - as many of the doomers believe, then such a split sure won't happen.
*next earnings are due: Tue, AH, April 24'th

BKS - telling a story?

Barnes and Noble has really been suffering lately, having fallen from last Novembers peak of $18 to $9, followed by some choppy action across the last few months. BKS is still losing money, and thus does not even have a PE ratio.


BKS, daily

If the main market can hold the Friday closing lows, and start a new up trend on Monday, then BKS will have a chance to the hold above the important 10.50 level. A break under 10, would very likely lead to a fast move to challenge the spiky low from early January.

Regardless of short term price volatility, since it presently remains a loss making is surely best left alone.

Saturday 14 April 2012

AKAM - ready to way or the other

Akamai is a very nice profitable tech company. Good profit margins of net' 17%, no debt, although the forward PE is now approaching the somewhat pricey level of 20.

see: stats:

AKAM, daily

Is AKAM forming a baby bear flag right now? A break under 35 would confirm it, and that would open up 31. Earnings are still over 8 trading days away, the bulls will wish to see a move over the recent high of 38 and then 39.

Those bulls expecting new market index highs within the near term, will wish to see good quality stocks like AKAM break through the next key threshold of $40 by month end.

*Next earnings, AH, Wed' April'25

INTC - a clue for the tech sector

Intel will be one to watch in the coming week for those wondering where the tech' sector might next be headed.

INTC, daily

INTC remains in a very strong uptrend, even a move down to the low 26s would not be that disastrous. Considering the state of the main market in recent days, INTC is holding up very well. Immediate upside would be $29, which is only 3%. So, the bulls - those looking for new market highs in the coming weeks, would certainly wish to see INTC break through the big $30 threshold.

*earnings are due AH, Tuesday April'17

Friday 13 April 2012

SHLD - trying to hold the line

Sears has been in a very consistent decline for the past month, falling from 83 to 57.

Sears, daily

From a cycle perspective its way over due for a bounce..and considering that it has now reached the giant gap from looks reasonable to consider a Long position. Of course, any move under 55 would open the door for a further fall all the way down into the 50 to 42 range - negating a massive chunk of the January mega-ramp.

In the long run - as many analysts have noted, Sears might be inevitably doomed.

*Retail Sales data are released pre-open Monday, maybe that can help put a floor in for Sears, and the main market.

AAPL - Friday' intra-day Update

Apple is seeing some interesting action today. Clearly, its being sucked down as part of the general market weakness, but also due to the GOOG post-earnings reaction.

AAPL - daily, near term

If $600 fails to hold, then 585/580 would likely occur within a few trading hours. I guess the 50day MA at 556 early next week would also be a valid target for the AAPL bears.

AAPL is interesting to watch as we move into the latter part of the day. Personally, I've never traded it, its too expensive! They need to do a 3 for 1 split this summer, and I'm guessing they will.

HPQ - whats up with the big jump?

Hewlett Packard took part in today's day'2 of the recovery rally..but in a more extreme manner that almost anyone could have projected.

HPQ, daily

I've highlighted HPQ once or twice since I started this stock page, primarily since it was such a good example of an old established company that has largely lost direction..and is relentlessly fading away.

Today's 7% jump was quite a surprise - and supportive of the idea that the wider market will make new highs in late April/May.

Where next?

We have a very obvious gap to fill at $28, that actually looks viable within a few days if the current trend in the wider market continues. Can HPQ break the massive resistance at $30?

I would argue that if we see HPQ - regardless of fundamentals in both the economy and HPQ itself, $31 or higher, it would suggest SP'1550 WILL be hit sometime this summer.

Thursday 12 April 2012

TVIX - the maniacs had a chance to exit

With the main indexes having a second significant up day, the VIX instruments were effectively massacred today. VIX itself closed -14% at 17.20%, and as the Elder Impulse (I call it the rainbow) chart shows, we did get a pretty conclusive red candle to close the day. It would appear the VIX has a long way yet to fall, low bol' is, that would be one 'viable' target.

VIX daily, rainbow

Lets look at the usual suspects...

VXX, daily

UVXY, daily

TVIX, daily

The trio of horror

VXX, UVXY, and TVIX, fell 8.6, 17.2, 14.8% respectively. As it appeared (and I noted) on Wednesday, the holders had a brief opportunity to exit with 'something'. Instead, two things occurred...

1. The holders were holding for even better levels (which I can understand, but the indexes had clearly floored late Wednesday).
2. The existing holders were actually ADDING to their positions, 'averaging down'.

Well, that hasn't really worked out so well. and now..I can only imagine they are STILL buying these crazy VIX instruments. It remains amazing that just over 3 weeks ago, everyone (even some clown channel analysis) were suggesting a target of 0 for TVIX..and yet the maniacs once again have forgotton so quickly.

TVIX will doubtless get a reverse split soon enough, although the threat remains the ETN might just get closed entirely. Although I'd say no to that, since its probably a real money-maker for Credit Swisse.

Leave them alone

As I've said before - and it remains a rare thing to legitimately argue, option calls/puts would be a more reliable and better way for those who wish to play market volatility. Options sure suffer from the decay as well (although it can be mitigated depending on how far out you buy), but the upside is immensely higher...and all the VIX instruments generally fail to capture adequate upside.


ADBE - still in the bullish channel

Adobe is looking good, and is a bullish sign that the tech' sector might yet have another significant up wave.

ADBE, daily

MACD cycle looks pretty much floored - although no confirmation yet. We have a great channel, and only a move under 32 would be concerning. Immediate price targets would be 35...and 37 by end April/early May. If the main market is cruising past Sp'1422, then ADBE should be around 37, which is some 15% higher than current levels.

Seemingly, a good reliable tech company, next earnings are set for June'19.

Wednesday 11 April 2012

AA - post earnings jump

Alcoa actually had some moderately acceptable earnings results at the Tuesday close. A mere 10 cents profit per share, verses an expected loss of 4 cents. In the scheme of things, its still lousy, since we're supposedly in an economic 'growth phase'.

AA, daily

MACD cycle looks pretty good for 3-5 days up. Price target would be somewhere in the 10.50/75 range - to be achieved probably around opex. A move above the recent high, into the $11s would be VERY bullish, and is exactly the sort of thing the bulls will need to see if the market is to break to new highs, and to open up the ultimate target of sp'1550 sometime this summer.

Alcoa is certainly something to watch in the days ahead, but even though it posted a profit, there are far better companies out there.

TCK - another wave lower imminent?

TCK is not a company I follow that much, but it does get mentioned occasionally by those I know.

TCK, daily

From a MACD cycle perspective, TCK is due to go negative cycle tomorrow. That would certainly suggest a move below the 33.74.

Immediate downside targets would be in the 32 to 31 zone.

Tuesday 10 April 2012

FCX - still a weak miner

The miners are still suffering...

FCX, daily,

FCX broke what was a minor support level, the next key level would be the lower channel line of 34/33.

*FCXs continued decline - a break of support, would suggest there is still significant weakness in the main market, and perhaps indicating a daily-cycle floor of sp'1340 - making a large H/S formation? It is something to consider this week..
Long term, FCX remains one of the great 'real work' companies. For now...there is certainly no 'buy' signal.

AA - Update

Alcoa had a very reasonable day, considering the main market.

AA, daily, near term

The $9.50 level seems to bringing in the buyers. The current formation is a clear bull flag, certainly not the best flag - being so close to the previous low, but..still, AA does not make for a great short into earnings play.

Near term upside would be $10..maybe 10.25, especially if main market can stabilise, at least no lower than sp'1365/70

*earnings are actually at the close Tuesday - not Monday (as I had stated at the weekend, I guess I should not rely entirely on yahoo! finance so much).

Monday 9 April 2012

AAPL - the juggernaut just keeps on going

Even though the market had a moderately lower day, Apple just keeps on trucking.

AAPL, daily, near term

MACD cycle looks set to go +cycle either tomorrow or Wednesday. Good support on the lower channel, around the 600/605 level.
It is arguably the one stock in the world right now, that no one should be shorting.

TVIX - Mon' morning: Special Update

The VIX daily is displaying a black candle....potentially warning a top is already in place (and conversely a floor in the indexes).

TVIX 60min

TVIX is sitting outside its bollinger bands. Sure, that could be a sign of a much higher move, but...generally, its not the best of places to be still holding long, not least if there are no stops on the position. From the MACD cycle perspective, this is likely to be the third tower..and a smaller one, again, suggestive that a new down wave is due (with the main market indexes bouncing back).

Such a multi-day down wave, would almost certainly make new lows for TVIX, due to the decaying nature of it.

TVIX is a broken ETN

We can all agree on that right? So...anyone holding should use any and all opportunities like this to bail out. There are far better ways to play market volatility than TVIX. Just like VXX and UVXY, TVIX is a FAILED ETN, it does not work, and the decay is a real nightmare across any period longer than 3-5 weeks.

Even hyper volatile VIX calls/puts are arguably a better play than the TVIX.

More on those crazy VIX instruments later today I think.

Sunday 8 April 2012

JPM - meddling its way to more profit?

The infamous meddling Morgue has results this coming Friday morning, and it will surely be a major market mover for the financial sector.

Current forward PE is a 'cheap' 8. Is the market tired of JPM? Or is Mr Market just stupidly under-valuing one of the biggest financials in the world, as it did AAPL and INTC until recently? Forward yield is a reasonable 2.7%, but is the market suggesting this will be cut, with such a low PE? Profit margins are a very attractive 21%. If JPM can post earnings with at least a 17/20% profit margin, then the market is significantly undervaluing the company.

JPM, daily

Excellent support around $43, which should hold, even if main market drops to SP'1370 this Mon/Tuesday. From a cycle perspective, JPM looks ready for a new up move, first target would be 47/48 later this month.

Watch for earnings, this Friday'13th - lucky JPM?, (pre-market 7am EST), I believe.