GDX - mixed month for the miners

It was a mixed month for the Gold miners, which saw sig' gains in the first half of April, but then a sharp swing lower. The ETF of GDX saw a net monthly decline of -2.5% at $22.23. The mid term bullish trend remains intact. Core rising support in May will be around $21.25.


GDX, monthly

GDX, weekly

Summary

The precious metals of Gold and Silver saw some distinct cooling into end month, but the mining stocks are fairing far worse.

From a mid month high of $24.88, the sector ETF of GDX saw two consecutive sig' net weekly declines, with a low of $21.68.

Near term price action remains pretty weak, and there is threat of a test of key rising trend in May, which will be around $21.25.

For now, the key mid term bullish trend remains intact.

F - better than expected

Q1 earnings from Ford Motor (F), were significantly better than market consensus. The stock was higher by around 2% in pre-market, but there was a rather bizarre swing lower, settling -1.1% at $11.47. Near term outlook remains shaky. Things only turn decisisively bullish with a break above multi-year declining trend, which in May will be around $12.50


F, daily

F, monthly

Summary

First, see: http://www.shareholder.ford.com/~/media/Files/F/Ford-IR/news-and-publications/2017/q1-2017-earnings-27-04-2017.pdf
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The most insane valuation?

Adjusted EPS was 39 cents.

If you x4: 156 cents, divide by the current stock price of $11.47  PE: 7.35.

On any basis... that is a ludicrous valuation.


Yet just today, Fichthorn on CNBC....

I acknowledge he made some valid 'what if' arguments in terms of consumer lending/debt. For now though, its a future threat.
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I am mid term bullish Ford, and am seeking a break above declining trend/resistance that stretches back to July 2014 when the stock was trading at $15.56.

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**special note, stockcharts periodically adjusts prior prices, as a result of dividends, which in the case of Ford, are very substantial.

X - meltdown on lousy earnings

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate chop, there was a severe meltdown in US steel (X), which settled lower by an outright horrific -26.8% at $22.78. Near term outlook is bearish, as the stock is now below multiple aspects of support, which will now act as upside resistance.


X, daily

X, monthly

Summary

This perhaps sums up the Q1 results for US Steel...

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Seriously though, first see...

https://www.ussteel.com/sites/default/files/reports_filings/USS%20Earnings%20Release%20-%202017%201Q.pdf

via: https://www.ussteel.com/investors/reports-filings
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The market was expecting a moderate profit, and instead saw a very sig' EPS loss of $1.03.

CEO Longhi notes: 'if market conditions... remain at their current levels... 2017 net earnings of approximately $260 million, or $1.50 per share'.

Of course, it will be another full year to know if that target turns out to be correct or not.


Technically broken

The break <$26 is very significant. I could almost understand that the more resilient bulls will argue the stock is now just filling the second of two key downside gaps.

It will likely take the stock some days.. if not a few weeks to build a floor around current levels. From there, things only turn bullish again with a break above the $27/28s - where the 200dma is lurking.

Right now, a monthly close above the key $40 threshold now looks out of range until at least Sept/Oct.
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*for the record, I've not traded X since I sold in the $39s in mid Feb'. I'm currently focused on meddling in other things. Given a few weeks of chop/floor-building, I'd again be interested to pick up X... with a late summer target of at least $30.

ABX - rough day for the best miner

It was a rough day for the gold bugs, as with capital market strength, Gold lost more of its inherent 'fear bid'. Barrick Gold (ABX) was particularly hit, after earnings were somewhat mixed, settling -11.1% at $16.93. In May, the core rising trend will be around $16.00.


ABX, daily

ABX, monthly

Summary

First, for those interested...

Q1 earnings: http://barrick.com/investors/news/news-details/2017/Barrick-Reports-First-Quarter-2017-Results/default.aspx

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As things are, Barrick Gold is now set for a sig' net monthly decline, having swung from an April 12th high of $20.36. Short term price action is clearly bearish, with upper gap resistance of $18.19-19.04.


Let me be crystal clear though...

ABX is one of the better - if not the best Gold miners out there. If you are of the view - as I am, that Gold will break >$1400 later this year, then ABX will be well above the summer 2016 high of $23.38.

The more serious should be keeping a close eye on spot Gold prices, but also the CRB. Those looking for some 'inflation in the system', should be seeking 180/179 to hold, with a summer break >195.

BAC, JPM - renewed strength in financials

It was a strong day for the US equity market, but especially so for financials, Bank of America (BAC) and J. P. Morgan (JPM) settled the day higher by 4.0% and 3.5% respectively. Mid term bullish trends are comfortably intact, as the fed is set to raise rates again in June or July.


BAC, monthly

JPM, monthly

Summary

*rather than highlight the smaller daily cycles, I wanted to put things in better perspective via the giant monthly cycles.
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BAC: the Nov'2016 breakout above the $18 threshold was so very important. Having already seen the $25s, a move to the $30 threshold looks within range by year end.. or certainly for spring 2018.

JPM: extremely strong, and as many now recognise, its headed for the giant psy' level of $100.
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Bullish higher rates, and by default... the financials.

GDX - a cooling week for the miners

With the precious metals on the decline, the related mining stocks followed. The sector ETF of GDX settled Friday +0.1% at $23.61, but that still made for a net weekly decline of -3.8%. Near term outlook offers renewed upside into end month.. and more broadly, across the summer.


GDX, weekly

GDX, monthly

Summary

Its notable that with five trading days left of the month, GDX is still net higher by a very significant 3.5%.

Suffice to add, some weeks are net higher... some are net lower, but the mid term trend since the Jan'2016 low of $12.36 remains comfortable intact.

In late May, rising trend will be around $21.50, and that is a considerable way lower.

I remain bullish the precious metals, and by default... the related mining stocks.

X - Steel producers at the Whitehouse

Whilst the main market saw moderate gains, there was very significant upside amongst the Steel producers. US Steel (X) settled higher by a powerful 7.3% to $30.51. Things turn more bullish with a break back over the 50dma, which in May will be around soft resistance of $34.00.


X, daily

X, monthly

Summary

The Steel producers were the centre of attention today, as they were once again at the Whitehouse, as President Trump signed another exec' order.




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Well... maybe Trump didn't exactly write a giant X... but that screenie was too tempting not to edit.
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US Steel's CEO Longhi continues to catch media attention...

Longhi seems a pretty reasonable guy, and I hope he stays with US Steel for the long term.
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So, what about the stock?

X has had a really rough time since the late Feb' high of $41.83. The stock has come very close to the 200dma in the $27s... but its held... just.

First soft upside target is around $34, where the 50dma will be lurking in May. The grander issue is whether X can manage a monthly close above the $40 threshold, which has been resistance for much of the past ten years.

Lets be clear, a monthly close >$40 will offer grander upside to $60, and right now, that is double the current price. I admit thats an exceptionally bold target, and for the 'conservative bullish chasers' out there, they'll wait for such a monthly close.

IBM - post earnings washout

Whilst the main market saw yet another day of moderate swings, there was very significant downside in International Business Machines (IBM), which settled -4.9% at $161.69. Core support is around the $160 threshold, and now its just a case of whether the stock settles the month above or below.


IBM, daily

IBM, monthly

Summary

see: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-stock-tumbles-over-revenue-224456590.html

Without going over the earnings in depth - as is covered across thousands of other sites, Q4 EPS was a respectable $2.38... on rev' of $18.16bn.

The more interesting aspect is that full year guidance is for EPS of $13.80.

Consider that with a price of $160, that is a PE in the 11s. On any fair basis... IBM is cheap. Sure, the growth potential is limited, but keep in mind, the annual dividend is $5.60 - a yield of around 3.3%.

Regardless of any price chop into end month, IBM, along with the rest of the market, should broadly climb this year. Equity bulls should only be concerned if IBM trades below the Oct'2016 low of $145.

The grand bullish target is the March 2013 high of $192.17. On balance.. that should be seen, whether late this year... or early 2018.

Bullish... quality tech.

BAC - better than reasonable

Whilst the main market closed moderately mixed, Bank of America (BAC) settled -0.4% at $22.71. The recent double low in the $22s still looks secure. First upside target is the March high of $25.80. A year end close around the $30 threshold is viable, so long as the fed raise rates at least twice more this year.


BAC, daily

BAC, monthly

Summary

Last November saw a massive breakout in the financials, with BAC clearing multi-year resistance of $18, and proceeding straight into the $25s. Recent cooling to the $22s is cyclically natural, and does nothing to dent the current hyper-bullish trend.

If you believe the fed will raise rates this June/July, and at least once more before year end, you should recognise that BAC could be close/at $30.00 by year end.

The equity bears can't tout anything unless <$18.

AMD - battling to stabilise

Whilst the main market saw a day of broad gains, there was significant strength in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which settled +3.9% at $12.78. However, the stock is still in the early phase of trying to stabilise after the recent 'Goldman inspired' smackdown from the $14.70s.


AMD, daily

AMD, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, a cloud hangs over the stock, primarily as a result of the Goldman Sachs sell rating ($11.00).

Even if the main market can claw upward into early May, AMD will struggle just to get back to the $14.00 threshold.

AMD has a lot to prove, earnings had better be at least 'reasonable', or worse case, the stock will duly implode to the 200dma - which in early May.. will be in the mid $9s.

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*earnings are due Thursday, May 4th in AH.
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CORRECTION (April 19th)... earnings due Mon' May 1'st in AH.

Thanks to TWTR user: https://twitter.com/trane132

GDX - a significant net weekly gain

With the precious metals pushing upward, the related mining stocks followed. The sector ETF of GDX settled Thursday -0.1% at $24.54, but that still made for a very significant net weekly gain of 4.4%. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, as a number of factors are now all leaning heavily in Gold's favour.


GDX, weekly

GDX, monthly

Summary

*we're halfway through the month, with GDX net higher by a very powerful 7.6%.
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The Feb' highs are close, and look set to be challenged with the next few weeks.

We have an increasing number of bullish gold factors...

- the fear bid, via Syria, North Korea, and even Afghanistan.
- President Trump is now arguing the USD is too high. A weaker dollar is by default, bullish Gold
- underlying inflation, its still somewhat subtle, but it is out there. I'd refer anyone to the CRB index.


The ultimate issue: was Dec'2015 a multi-year floor for Gold and Silver, with Jan'2016 a key floor for the related miners?

I believe so. For now, the mid term trend - that links the late Dec'2015/Jan'2016 and the Dec'2016 lows remains comfortably intact. Things turn hyper-bullish with Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, Copper >$3.00, and GDX in the $32s. 

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If you are serious about the Gold mining stocks, then pick up my latest report.

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

X - Steel producers hit hard

Whilst the main market saw a day of broad weakness, there was rather severe downside in the Steel producers. US Steel (X) settled -10.0% to $31.26. With a break of rising trend, and a bearish MACD cross (daily cycle), the near term outlook is bearish. The mid term outlook remains bullish, unless <$26.


X, daily

X, monthly

Summary

*note today's massive trading volume of 38 million, the highest since Nov'9th.
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Today's major drop in US Steel was something of a surprise, as just yesterday the stock was making a challenge to break above declining trend/resistance. By definition, yesterday is now a major failure, and we already have a decisive break of rising trend.

The 200dma is currently in the mid $27s, and is another 15% lower. The threat of further weakness is there, unless a break into the $35s.

Core support remains in the mid $26s. No price action <26 is expected within the near.. or mid term.

ABX - miners climbing with gold

Whilst equities saw some distinct morning weakness, there was significant strength in the precious metals, with the related mining stocks following. Barrick Gold (ABX) settled higher by a significant 3.2% to $20.10. Near/mid term outlook remains bullish.


ABX, daily

ABX, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, Barrick Gold is leading the way higher. Its currently net higher for a fifth consecutive month, which is the best run since 2002 !

Mid term trend from the Sept'2015 low of $5.86 is comfortably intact. A break above the summer 2016 highs is on the menu.

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For those with a serious interest in the mining stocks, I have a report for you...

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

TSLA - super charged

Whilst the main market managed moderate gains, there was more notable strength in Tesla (TSLA), settling +3.3% at $312.39. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, with viable upside to the 380/400 zone by spring 2018. 


TSLA, daily

TSLA, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, mainstream analysts are perpetually increasing their upside targets...

see: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/tesla-gets-highest-price-forecast-ever-from-a-major-analyst.html
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The products are great, the CEO is something of a visionary, but the valuation for Tesla is beyond 'ludicrous mode'.

... but that sure doesn't mean I'd ever try shorting this cash hungry monster.

GDX - miners climbing with Gold

With Gold having a moderately positive week, the related miners followed. The sector ETF of GDX settled Friday broadly flat at $23.50, which made for a net weekly gain of 3.0%. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, as the mid term upward trend remains comfortably intact.


GDX, daily

GDX, weekly

Summary

*The Syrian situation certainly helped give the metals some degree of 'fear bid', but both Gold and Silver did notably fade into the weekend.

Broadly though, the miners had a rather good week. GDX is still some way below the Feb' high of $25.71, but the trend IS there.

The grander issue remains, can the miners break the summer 2016 high? I am holding to something of an inflationary outlook. Things turn super bullish with Gold $1400, Silver $22s, Copper >$3.00, and GDX >$32.
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If you have a serious interest in the precious metals and the mining stocks, I've a report just for YOU!

For details, see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

AMD - Goldman wreck the party

A single analyst at Goldman has wrecked the party for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), by 'initiating coverage... with a sell rating'. The algo-bots duly smashed AMD (intra low 12.83), with the stock settling lower by a severe -6.3% to $13.28. Near term outlook is very uncertain, as many will be looking to buy, but some will now look to sell on any bounce.


AMD, daily

AMD, monthly

Summary

AMD was one of the standout stocks yesterday, and even managed a fractional net daily gain of 1cent, whilst the main market settled moderately lower.

This morning's pre-market announcement from GS that one of their analyst is initiating coverage with a sellside target of $11.00 saw the HFT algo-bots significantly mark down the stock. This spooked the retail speculators, and the stock imploded to a morning low of $12.83.

There was something of a latter day 'cyclical - short term' recovery, but still... a net daily decline of -6.3% is a pretty severe decline. Further, its notable that AMD settled below the 50dma. Technically, there isn't any support until around $12.50. 
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With the GS downgrade, there were all sorts of theories flying around...

GS was in an underwater short-AMD trade, and have actively tried to spook the market, so they can close their shorts for a better price.

GS merely wanted to pick up AMD stock at a lower price.

Whether you believe in any of the (overly cynical?) theories out there doesn't much matter. What will matter is whether AMD can impress the market with good earnings in May, and offer positive guidance for the rest of the year.

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Here is just one of many out there who are largely dismissive of the Goldman target...

see: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2017/04/06/amd-stay-the-course/ 

Yours truly... still likes AMD.

AMD - headed far higher

Whilst the main equity market settled moderately lower, there was more significant strength in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which saw an intra high of $14.64, but settling +0.1% at $14.17. Near term outlook offers the 15/16s, with the 17s highly viable in early May. If 'better than expected' earnings, then the $20.00 threshold would be a real threat to those still trying to short.


AMD, daily

AMD, monthly

Summary

Yesterday saw a group of maniacs downgrade Nvidia (NVDA). Even the mainstream seemed to recognise that call made little sense. Indeed, many are seeking NVDA to the 130/140s before year end.

As for AMD, its had an insanely strong run since the Jan'2016 low of $1.75. Yet the new line of CPUs/GPUs continue to receive a great deal of positive attention.

Considering the broader market, further upside to the mid/upper teens seems viable.

A hyper-short squeeze is possible if earnings - due Thursday May 4th in AH, come in better than expected, and  AMD could even test the $20.00 threshold.
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For the record, I remain wondering if AAPL might eventually want to pick up their own CPU/GPU producer. At $30 a share, that would roughly cost AAPL $30bn, which is ironically less than one quarter of net profit.

Yours... bullish

ABX - broadly strong

With the precious metals continuing to lean upward, the related mining stocks followed. Barrick Gold (ABX) settled higher for a third consecutive day, +0.8% at $19.47. The mid term bullish trend remains comfortably intact. The bigger issue is whether the summer 2016 highs are taken out this year.


ABX, daily

Summary

So.. a third day higher. Recent price structure is arguably just a bull flag, and that offers the $20.00 threshold in the near term. The Feb' high of $20.75 is within range by May. Any daily closes >$21 will offer a challenge of the July high of $23.38.

Barrick Gold remains a personal favourite. I'm seeking far higher levels into 2018. That will of course require Gold >$1400... along with some other things to occur.
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For details, see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html

GDX - miners catching some interest

With the precious metals starting the new month on a moderately positive note, the related miners caught some interest. The Gold miner ETF of GDX settled net higher by 1.7% to $23.21. Mid term outlook remains bullish.


GDX, weekly

Summary

With the precious metals leaning upward, the Gold Mining stocks caught some interest. Last week saw GDX cool into end month, but overall price action remained reasonably strong.

Note how the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has levelled out, and is now highly vulnerable to beginning a new up cycle that could stretch all the way into the summer - much like last year.
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For those with a serious interest in the miners, issue 2 of my Gold Miners report is now available.

For details: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/p/research-reports.html