Saturday, 30 April 2022

Miners swing lower

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net April decline of -$3.36 (8.8%) to $34.99, the sector impacted by weak gold/silver, but also the broader equity market.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The miners saw an early April high of $41.60, but cooled back to settle powerfully lower at $34.99. I would note the 10MA at $32.77, which was again settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum has stalled just under the key zero threshold. Next target of the Aug'2020 high of $44.76 looks out of range in the near term, not least considering the main market.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly

Newmont broke a new historic high of $86.37, but swung powerfully lower, with a net April decline of -$6.60 (8.3%) to $72.85. I would note the monthly 10MA at $61.85, which was again settled above. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


Barrick Gold printed $25.99, but cooled back to settle -$2.22 (9.0%) to $22.31. Momentum still turned positive. A push above the Aug'2020 high of $30.47 will likely require Gold  >$2100.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


First Majestic printed $14.59, but swung powerfully lower, seeing a net April decline of -$2.86 (21.7%) to $10.30. The April candle was bearish engulfing, and leans s/t bearish. The m/t broken main market sure isn't helping.

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Of the three, yours truly currently favours GOLD.  As at April'29,I hold GOLD and AG.

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Thursday, 31 March 2022

Bullish follow through

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net March gain of +$3.97 (11.5%) to $38.35.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The miners saw bullish follow through, spiking to $40.26, if cooling back to settle powerfully higher at $38.35. The February break above m/t declining trend has been fully confirmed. I would note the 10MA at $32.61, which was again decisively settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish. Monthly momentum will turn positive at the April 1st open, with next target of the Aug'2020 high of $44.76.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

 


Newmont lead the sector upward, breaking a new historic high of $81.14, with a net March gain of +$13.72 (20.9%) to $79.45. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $60s, which was again settled above. Monthly momentum has turned positive.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


Barrick Gold climbed for a sixth consecutive month, settling +$1.96 (8.7%) to $24.53. Momentum is due to turn positive as of April 1st. Next target is psy' $30. A push above the Aug'2020 high of $30.47 will likely require Gold at least >$2100.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


First Majestic saw a net March gain of +$1.93 (17.1%) to $13.16. March settled above the 10MA. Things turn decisive >$15.00.

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Of the three, yours truly currently favours GOLD.

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Tuesday, 1 March 2022

Miners resilient to the main market

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net February gain of +$4.15 (13.7%) to $34.38.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The miners rebounded strongly in February, spiking to $36.06, if cooling back to settle powerfully higher at $34.38. The miners were notably resilient to the weak main market. We have a marginal break above m/t declining trend. I would note the 10MA at $32.65, which was decisively settled above. Soft target 39/40s.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly

 


Newmont broadly climbed with the sector, with a net February gain of +$5.03 (8.2%) to $66.20. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $60s, which was again settled above. Monthly momentum will be prone to turning positive in March/April.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


Barrick Gold climbed for a fifth consecutive month, settling +$3.50 (18.4%) to $22.57. Momentum is due to turn positive within March/early April. Next target are the $25s, and then psy' $30. A push above the Aug'2020 high of $30.47 will likely require Gold at least >$2100.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


First Majestic saw a net February gain of +$1.08 (10.6%) to $11.24. Still a m/t mess, things turn interesting above the 10MA, currently at $12.86, and decisive >15s.

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Of the three, yours truly currently favours GOLD.
As of Feb'28th 2022, I hold long via NEM, GOLD (via options) and AG.

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