Thursday 29 February 2024

Miners under-performing

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January decline of -$1.58 (5.6%) to $26.36, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners were lower for a second consecutive month, once again under-performing the broader equity market. I would note the 10MA at $28.99, which was again settled beneath.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net February decline of -$3.26 (9.4%) to $31.25. I would note the monthly 10MA at $38.33, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a second month, and is on the moderately low side.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net February decline of -$0.83 (5.4%) to $14.66. Momentum ticked lower, turning fractionally negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net February decline of -$0.13 (2.8%) to $4.49. The February print of $4.17 is the lowest since March 2020... back when SPX was flooring at 2191.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end February 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM, GOLD, AG

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Thursday 1 February 2024

Miners dig down

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January decline of -$3.07 (9.9%) to $27.94, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners began the year on a rough note. I would note the 10MA at $29.66, which was settled beneath.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net January decline of -$6.88 (16.6%) to $34.51. I would note the monthly 10MA at $39.80, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, but still looks prone to turning positive, if no earlier than March.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net January decline of -$2.49 (13.8%) to $15.60. Momentum ticked lower, if remaining fractionally positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net January decline of -$1.53 (24.9%) to $4.62. I would note the January settlement is back below the 10MA, with monthly momentum fractionally negative. The silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end January 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM, GOLD, AG

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Saturday 30 December 2023

Net 2023 gains for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.20 (0.6%) to $31.01, which made for a net 2023 gain of +$2.81 (10.0%).

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a third consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $30.04, which was settled above. 

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$25.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$1.20 (3.0%) to $41.39. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.10, which was marginally settled above. Net yearly decline of -$3.97 (8.8%). Monthly momentum is ticking upward, and prone to turning positive within Jan/Feb'. Price could be expected to spike, with a break above key price threshold of the $44s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net December gain of +$0.50 (2.8%) to $18.09. A net yearly gain of +$1.32 (7.9%). The December candle leans at least s/t bullish, with momentum having turned positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly


A net December gain of +$0.18 (3.0%) to $6.15. I would note the December settlement is back above the 10MA, with monthly momentum due to turn positive in January. A net yearly decline of -$2.16 (26.0%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end 2023... I hold a stock position in NEM
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Something I just recently noticed.
Highly recommended for those with an interest in gold and the related miners.

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