Miners digging lower

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net February decline of -$4.51 (14.1%) to $27.51, largely impacted by a major downside reversal in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of gold/silver miners fell for the time in six months. I would note the 10MA at $27.16, which was marginally settled above.

Any further downside in the main market will be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net February decline of -$9.32 (17.6%) to $43.61. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $48s, which was settled back below. Monthly momentum remains negative, and I'd note the March 2020 spike low of $30.11.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net February decline of -$3.31 (17.0%) to $16.12. I'd especially note the reversal is from around key price threshold. Momentum has stalled just under the key zero threshold. Next support are the 13/12s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net February decline of -$1.79 (22.7%) to $6.10. A third consecutive settlement below the 10MA, as the silver miners are massively under-performing the gold miners. The March 2020 low of $4.15 doesn't look a stretch by mid year.

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end February 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.

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Miners powerfully higher

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January gain of +$3.36 (11.7%) to $32.02, especially helped with Gold printing the $1950s.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of gold/silver miners climbed for a fifth consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $27.85, which was decisively settled above.

Whilst the miners outperformed the main market, unless you believe the main market has a key m/t floor from early Oct' 2022, any renewed downside will be a major downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net January gain of +$5.73 (12.1%) to $52.93. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $50s, which was settled above for the first time since May 2022. Monthly momentum remains negative, and I'd note the March 2020 spike low of $30.11.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net January gain of +$2.37 (13.8%) to $19.55. Momentum is due to positive at the Feb'1st open. Next resistance is around $21.00.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net January decline of -$0.45 (5.4%) to $7.89. A second consecutive settlement below the 10MA, as the silver miners are massively under-performing the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end January 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.

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Net 2022 declines for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.09 (3.0%) to $28.66, which made for a net 2022 decline -$2.84 (9.0%).

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a fourth consecutive month. The December candle is black, and is suggestive of s/t bullish exhaustion. I would note the 10MA at $28.42, which was marginally settled above. Things only turn decisive with a monthly settlement above $30, which looks difficult considering the outlook for the broader market.

Unless you believe the main market has a key m/t floor from early Oct' 2020, any renewed downside will be a pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$0.28 (0.6%) to $47.20. The December candle is black, and leans s/t bearish. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $53s, which was settled below for a seventh consecutive month. Net yearly decline of -$12.37 (20.8%). Monthly momentum remains deeply negative, and I'd note the March 2020 spike low of $30.11.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net December gain of +$0.86 (5.3%) to $17.18. A net yearly decline of -$1.13 (6.2%). The December candle is rather spiky from around the monthly 10MA. The problem will likely be further downside in the main market.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

 

A net December decline of -$0.95 (10.2%) to $8.34. I would note the December settlement is below the 10MA. A net yearly decline of -$2.74 (24.7%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners, with a m/t bearish main market.  

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end 2022... I hold no miner stocks/options.

For more of the same...

For details and the latest offers > https://www.tradingsunset.com