Thursday, 31 August 2023

Miners digging back down

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net August decline of -$2.15 (6.8%) to $29.26, pressured by a shaky equity market, and downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

An intra month low of $27.27, but recovering to settle at $29.26. I would note the 10MA at $30.44, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and is prone to turning negative in September. 

The central concern should be that any downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net August decline of -$3.50 (8.1%) to $39.42, a distinctly weak performance relative to the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.80, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back lower, and remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net August decline of -$0.97 (5.7%) to $16.21. Momentum has turned fractionally negative. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net August decline of +$0.54 (8.2%) to $6.13. A ninth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market breaks lower.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market breaks lower.

As of end August 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Monday, 31 July 2023

Choppy miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net July gain of +$1.30 (4.3%) to $31.41, helped by a positive main market, and upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly


Summary

An intra month high of $32.92, but cooling back to settle at $31.41. I would note the 10MA at $29.89, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and remains marginally positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net July gain of +$0.26 (0.6%) to $42.92, a distinctly weak performance relative to the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.96, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net July gain of +$0.36 (2.1%) to $17.29. Momentum is flat-lining, on the fractionally positive side. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net July gain of +$1.03 (18.2%) to $6.68. A eighth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market breaks lower.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market breaks lower.

As of end July 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Friday, 30 June 2023

Miners struggling

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net June decline of -$0.80 (2.6%) to $30.11, largely due to a second month of downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

An intra month high of $32.29, but swinging lower to $28.76, and settling at $30.11. I would note the 10MA at $29.12, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked lower, but remains positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net June gain of +$2.11 (5.2%) to $42.66. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.74, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net June gain of +$0.05 (0.3%) to $16.93. May's bearish engulfing candle did play out, with a low of $15.85. Momentum is flat-lining, on the fractionally positive side. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net June decline of -$0.12 (2.1%) to $5.65. The performance is truly lousy, both to the sector and main market. A seventh consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick.
As of end June 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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