Thursday 1 February 2024

Miners dig down

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January decline of -$3.07 (9.9%) to $27.94, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners began the year on a rough note. I would note the 10MA at $29.66, which was settled beneath.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net January decline of -$6.88 (16.6%) to $34.51. I would note the monthly 10MA at $39.80, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, but still looks prone to turning positive, if no earlier than March.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net January decline of -$2.49 (13.8%) to $15.60. Momentum ticked lower, if remaining fractionally positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net January decline of -$1.53 (24.9%) to $4.62. I would note the January settlement is back below the 10MA, with monthly momentum fractionally negative. The silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end January 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM, GOLD, AG

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Saturday 30 December 2023

Net 2023 gains for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.20 (0.6%) to $31.01, which made for a net 2023 gain of +$2.81 (10.0%).

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a third consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $30.04, which was settled above. 

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$25.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$1.20 (3.0%) to $41.39. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.10, which was marginally settled above. Net yearly decline of -$3.97 (8.8%). Monthly momentum is ticking upward, and prone to turning positive within Jan/Feb'. Price could be expected to spike, with a break above key price threshold of the $44s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net December gain of +$0.50 (2.8%) to $18.09. A net yearly gain of +$1.32 (7.9%). The December candle leans at least s/t bullish, with momentum having turned positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly


A net December gain of +$0.18 (3.0%) to $6.15. I would note the December settlement is back above the 10MA, with monthly momentum due to turn positive in January. A net yearly decline of -$2.16 (26.0%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end 2023... I hold a stock position in NEM
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Something I just recently noticed.
Highly recommended for those with an interest in gold and the related miners.

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Thursday 30 November 2023

The strong miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net November gain of +$3.31 (11.8%) to $31.32, helped by upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

An intra month low of $27.01, but swinging lower to settle at $31.32. I would note the 10MA at $30.14, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and settled fractionally positive.

The central concern should be any renewed broad/sustained downside in the main market. However, I'd accept that doesn't look due any earlier than mid January.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net November gain of +$3.09 (8.3%) to $37.47. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.16, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, if remaining negative. The November candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net November gain of +$1.70 (10.7%) to $15.98. Momentum subtly ticked upward, turning fractionally positive. Soft target is key price threshold of the $19.20s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net November gain of +$0.83 (16.0%) to $5.97. A twelfth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. The November candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.
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