Friday 29 June 2012

JPM - struggling..whilst the indexes surged

J. P. Morgan Chase (JPM) had a pretty lousy day, when you consider the main indexes surged over 2.25% today.

JPM, daily


On the daily chart you could possibly argue there is a tiny bullish flag within the larger bear flag. There is a clear gap and resistance at the $38-40 zone.

I suppose if the markets can only increase a further 2-3% early next week, look for JPM to get stuck around 38..and thats assuming it can rally at all. It really does seem to be struggling lately, not least due to their large failed London based trade.

A break under the recent low of $31 would definately be a real warning, and would be one key level at which the chasers could short from.

Thursday 28 June 2012

MMR - unsustainable ramp

Mcmoran exploration (MMR) has seen a pretty explosive ramp in the last two weeks, rising from the low 8s to the mid 12s. . 50% !

This ram is completely unsustainable, not least with the underlying economic data continuing to worsen.

MMR, daily


First target would be a retrace to the psychologically important $10 level. A fail to hold there, and a retest of the recent low of $7.76 will be likely.

Considering the main market is set to fall to sp'1150 or so...MMR will be one to watch in July.

Wednesday 27 June 2012

TVIX, UVXY - warning of downside in equities

Whilst the main indexes all rose today, the VIX held up very well. Both the TVIX and UVXY closed around 1%.higher

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


With the VIX holding firm around the big 20 level - and seemingly set to move to 22/24 in the days ahead, both TVIX/UVXY look set to leap upward.

As ever though..such instruments are arguably for day-trading only. Holding overnight, both are subject to periodic gaps lower of 15/25%.

Tuesday 26 June 2012

FB - ready to rollover

Facebook (FB) has had a very strong dead cat bounce after its initial collapse from IPO day of $45 to the $25s. It now appears stuck in the 32/34 zone. A break under the daily 10MA of $31 would be the first initial sell signal in my view.

FB, daily


End 2012 targets remain - the mid teens, although that could come very much sooner if some more negative news stories start piling up.The SP' in the low 1100s would also help by early August!

Regardless of the main market..FB remains overvalued by around 90% or so.

Monday 25 June 2012

FCX - miners caving in..again

Freeport McMoran (FCX) had a lousy day, very much in line with the broader market.

FCX, daily


Mid 35s are now becoming a fast distant memory. Primary target for FCX this summer is...20. That is indeed a VERY bold target, but is very much in line with my GDX target decline of around 30%. The bigger miners will lose 25/30%..with the smaller miners (especially the loss making ones!) 50/75%.

A very difficult summer ahead for all mining stocks.

Sunday 24 June 2012

AAPL - bear flag set to be confirmed

Apple (AAPL) has lost the media spotlight since the last quarterly earnings report. The daily chart shows a very clear bear flag, that is set to be confirmed within the next week or two.

AAPL, daily


First target is a break of the bear flag, arguably anything under $530 confirms it - that is however a pretty significant $52 below the current price! So, first step is a near 10% loss!

Secondary target is the recent low of $522..and that should open up a quick move to the big $500.

If the main equity market outlook is correct - with SP'1150/00, AAPL will find it very hard to hold over $500, and then the only issue is whether it floors around the 200day MA of 481..or the next key/gap support of 440/430.

So..we are probably looking at a 15/20%, perhaps even 25/30% downside case within the next few months. 

Friday 22 June 2012

TVIX, UVXY, rough end to the week

The week ended somewhat disturbingly for those playing the VIX instruments. Both TVIX and UVXY both lost 14 and 20% respectively - with VIX itself falling almost 10%.

Considering the market maxed out at sp'1363 on Wednesday, and closed Friday at sp'1335, these Friday closing levels for TVIX/UVXY look dreadful.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


If you didn't know the indexes already, you might assume we had a dow +250/300pt day. The VIX however did fall almost 10% today though, and so both of these instruments suffered relatively as expected

As they often say...'these instruments are for short term trading only!'.

Wednesday 20 June 2012

GDX - miners due to start digging down again

With the main indexes seemingly now completing a wave'2, the mining sector looks set to begin a new down cycle. The lack of QE3 today whacked the precious metals earlier in the day, and this added to downward pressure on the miners.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


GDX remains a great ETF to trade the mining sector. With downside targets of at least $1300 and $22 for Gold and Silver respectively (with Copper, and other metals showing similar % falls), I expect the mining sector to suffer greatly across the next 1-3 months.

First target is a break of the recent low of 39, then a push to 35. Whether we can eventually hit 30..difficult to say at this time.

Tuesday 19 June 2012

BAC - following the main market

Bank of America (BAC) saw strong gains today, but it has formed what is a very clear bear flag - forming wave'2.

BAC, daily


My underlying outlook remains that the entire banking system is an insolvent ponzi/fractional scheme - which it is of course. No one can deny that. It remains truly remarkable the banking system has lasted as long as it has. Yet, basic math will catch up in the end, baring a secondary round of huge bailouts, many of these large institutions will not survive.

Near term targets

A break below the recent low of 6.75...and a fast move to $5.50 /5.00. If we break $5, then that would be suggestive that sp'1100 will not hold later this year.

Fair value remains: 0.00 

Monday 18 June 2012

HPQ - long term problems, which the market recognises

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) had a pretty bad day, despite the indexes closing only 'mixed'. The underlying problems remain the same, HPQ's long term business strategy is seriously under threat.

HPQ, daily


Holding to downside targets of $15..and eventually $10

$10 seems unlikely this year, unless a doomster market collapse occurs, with sp'800 or so. I don't see that occurring, but I would most definitely believe $15 is coming later this summer/autumn.

Difficult times lie ahead for HPQ. It is nice to see that Mr Market is at least recognising - and pricing this stock..accordingly.

Friday 15 June 2012

FB - A great first months trading!

Facebook (FB) was overvalued from the very start of trading. After one full month of trading today, FB has lost 21%. Its seeing a fairly good bounce in the last two weeks, but that is merely reflecting action in the wider equity market.

FB, daily


A move to around 32/24 is expected next week - with the indexes completing wave'2 around sp'1360/80.

The next target for FB this summer will be a new low of 25...and very likely 20. 

SP'1100 - the monthly cycle target, would equate to FB around 15/17 by late July/August.

FB remains overvalued by around 85%...fair value remains $4, and I would not be a buyer above $1.50 for what remains a company that has very minor revenue/profits, with an entirely unreliable customer base.

Thursday 14 June 2012

TVIX - volatility smashed lower in final hour

TVIX holders can justifiably feel outraged at the action in today's closing hour. With the rumours that various central banks are likely to increase liquidity after the Greek election, the VIX received a very serious smack down

TVIX, 1min chart

TVIX, daily


Crazy action, and if the market does rally to my primary target of sp'1350/60, then TVIX will likely suffer another 20% or so lower before the index wave'2 completes. Targets are very difficult to project with this ETN, but low 6s seem very viable, if not even a brief move into the 5s.

For those not using stops....the close was pretty brutal..and indeed a travesty.

Wednesday 13 June 2012

AAPL - the hysteria..has gone

Apple (AAPL) is actually trading without the hysteria that consumed the first few months of this year. I can't say I've even heard AAPL mentioned more than once or twice so far this week on the clown networks.

AAPL, daily


AAPL is holding up very well considering the main market, but there is a very clear bear flag on the daily charts. Primary target is $440 (with an intermediate target of the big $500) - that is assuming the sp' eventually moves to around 1150/00 in the coming 2-3 months.

A great company, but as is the case in any major market downturn, even the highly profitable good company stocks will still get drawn lower.

Tuesday 12 June 2012

MMR - bouncing within a giant bear flag

Mcmoran Exploration (MMR) is one of my favourite oil exploration stocks, its very volatile, but its also a fair representation of the oil exploration sector.

MMR, daily - near term

MMR, daily, 4yr


 This is a very clear bear flag (pink) on the daily chart. First target is a break of previous low of 7.80, which opens up $7....but that won't hold.

Secondary targets are $6, and $5.   I would guess MMR hits $5 as early as end July/early August.

Its one to watch!

Monday 11 June 2012

ANR - another lousy day

Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) had another dire day in the market. The coal sector remains the most battered sector, and there is still no sign of a floor. We are already seeing declines in the coal stocks below the 2008/09 wave collapse levels.

ANR, daily


Almost another big 10% knocked off this stock...where is the floor? As noted repeatedly across the last few months, the coal stocks are on the leading edge of what appears to be a secondary major deflationary collapse wave.

ANR put in a new historic low today, with no prior history in these low levels, its hard to know where the floor is. Arguably, there should be support at each rounded dollar level, yet I'd guess only the $5 level will act as some kind of soft support.

So long as the coal miners are losing money on literally every ton they keep digging up...they are sadly digging an ever deeper financial hole for themselves.

Friday 8 June 2012

AMZN - long term target remains $100

Amazon (AMZN) still has real problems, lousy operating margins of around 1.5%...and its been eating into its reserves to maintain the illusion that its a profitable company.

AMZN, daily

AMZN, weekly


Primary target remains in the region of $100. If the US economy officially slips into recession by Q4 of 2012, then AMZN will be one of those stocks that drop 80% or so across the next 6-18 months. Yes, AMZN could go the way of NFLX - which is also headed for the 40s..or even 20s.

AMZN, a good company, but one that needs serious internal rationalisation, and a global economy that is not permanently on the edge of financial meltdown.

Thursday 7 June 2012

JRCC, ANR, PCX - dirty..real dirty stocks

James River Coal Company (JRCC), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), and Patriot Coal (PCX) are one hell of a trio of dirty stocks. They have all suffered due to falls in the wider commodity market, the somewhat weak equity market, and the weakening global economy.





They can't all go bankrupt, right? Well, even if they do, the remnants will of course be picked up by someone, with the debts written off, and other such post bankruptcy issues.

The key aspect is that if they keep losing money - I believe I'm right in saying ALL three companies are failing to make a profit right now, they will NOT survive longer than another 2-3 years.

I'd guess ANR will be fine in the long run, but clearly PCX/JRCC are at serious risk. Actually assuming they don't implode this summer, I think there is eventually a high chance of them being bought out by someone. Maybe the Chinese fancy a nice American coal mining company? Quite literally strip mining the USA..what a thought!

Wednesday 6 June 2012

TVIX, UVXY - more carnage

With the indexes rising 2-3% today, and the VIX losing around 10%, both TVIX and UVXY really suffered today.




We've seen some negative divergence develop in the last few days, and it looks like both TVIX and UVXY have some serious downside yet to come. Assuming the VIX loses at least a further 10% or so, we're looking at another 15/20% from both of these long VIX instruments.

I think they'll be at attractive levels towards the end of next week - prior to the Greek elections and the Fed' meeting June 19/20.

Monday 4 June 2012

FB - yet another great day for the Facebook

Facebook (FB) had another great day, losing just over 3% ! This is clearly great progress, and soon enough this stock might even start rising for 2-3 days in a row.

Facebook, daily


As noted over a week ago, with the break of $30, the next soft level is $25, I'm guessing we won't go much lower than low 24s by the end of this week, and then we'll see FB actually rally for a few weeks - along with the main market into the mid sp'1300s

With the monthly index target still sp'1100..that would probably take FB as low as the mid teens by late July/early August. 

Fair value...remains $4

Friday 1 June 2012

INTC - in a very clear down trend

Intel (INTC) is in a very clear downtrend - after what was also a very clear up trend. It is a superb reflection of the broader equity market (and is a member of the Dow'30).

INTC, daily


First target is 23/22 - assuming low sp'1200s - sometime in June. The bigger monthly charts suggest sp'1100 of course, and that probably equates to INTC somewhere in the 20/19 range. I can't imagine Intel breaking into the mid teens...baring sp<1000.

Intel is without question a great company, and at $20, would be offering a yield of around 4/5%. Somewhat better than the US 10 year piece of worthless dirty paper/bond.