TVIX, UVXY - another difficult week

With the VIX ending the week on a moderately positive note, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly gains of 2.1% and 2.9% respectively. Even if the VIX can battle into the low 20s by mid November (with sp'2020/00), it will do little to negate the huge declines since late August.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX

VIX is clearly looking like it has put in a Fed day spike floor of 12.80. I would expect at least the 18/20 zone - along with sp'2020/00 by Nov' opex.

There will probably be another moderate equity down wave at least once in Dec.. but it sure won't likely result in the VIX going up very much.

*for me.. the VIX-long trade is dead until late spring 2016. The only thing that would change such a view would be a weekly/monthly close <sp'1950.
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As for TVIX/UVXY, minor net weekly gains... as equities have probably seen a short term peak of sp'2094.

... as ever.. such instruments suffer from statistical decay.. and holding for periods longer than a few days.. rarely ends well.

GDX - miners naturally falling with the metals

With the precious metals of Gold and Silver seeing net daily declines of -1.0% and -2.5% respectively, the related mining stocks were naturally impacted. The ETF of GDX settled -4.6% @ $15.16. The outlook remains broadly bearish into next year.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly.

Summary

Yes, the current Oct' net monthly gain of 10.3% is bullish, but the broader trend is still bearish, not least as a new multi-year low ($12.62) was achieved just last month!
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My guess is that the metals will see another significant down wave into year end... and probable also the first 3-6 months of 2016.

With the USD set to (eventually) break back above the DXY 100 threshold, the metals will face increasing downward pressure.

.. and if that is the case, the related miners will be dragged lower.. regardless of however strong the main equity market might be.

AAPL - post earnings gains

With earnings coming in better than expected, Apple (AAPL) opened higher, and built significant gains across the day, settling +4.1% @ $119.25. However, near term outlook for the broader market is bearish, and there remains threat of downside to the 112/110 zone.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say.. earnings were fine.

Broadly.. it would seem there is now threat of new historic highs in the $130s before year end (along with the broader market)... but first.. a short term retrace looks due.

CHK, CNX, RIG - energy stocks under pressure

Whilst the broader market settled broadly lower, there was distinct significant weakness in the energy sector. Chesapeake (CHK), Consol (CNX), and Transocean (RIG), settled lower by -5.7%, -21.3%, and -2.2% respectively. Near/mid term outlook for the trio is outright bearish.


CHK, daily

CNX, daily

RIG, daily

Summary

Suffice to add, it was a rough trading day for most energy stocks, as energy prices continue to display rather strong deflationary pressures.

What remains of the coal mining sector remains hardest hit, with CNX having collapsed from $20 to the $6s in just 5 months.

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*I have no position in any of the trio of horror. The energy sector still appears some way from capitulation.. and further companies look set to 'disappear' into 2016.

NFLX - a second day to the upside

Whilst the broader market saw a day of minor chop, there was notable strength in Netflix (NFLX), settling +3.0% @ $103.05. Near term outlook offers best case to around $110, but then renewed weakness to the 200dma.. which will be around $90 across November.


NFLX, daily

Summary

Little to add.

NFLX continues to produce superb product (such as Daredevil.. and the upcoming Jessica Jones).. but the company is simply not making any significant profit.

The recent announcement of a $1 monthly price hike is certainly a step in the right direction, but broadly.. NFLX faces considerable problems.. not least as there is increasingly fierce competition in the online streaming business.
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*NFLX would be an interesting long around $90 in November... not least if the broader market has cooled to the sp'2000 threshold.

TVIX, UVXY - a fourth week of horror

With the VIX continuing to break new cycle lows in the 13s, it was another week of horror for the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX/UVXY, which saw net weekly declines of -12.6% and -12.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers further equity upside into the next FOMC.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX

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It is notable that TVIX/UVXY have seen net weekly declines for the last 6 of 7 weeks.

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No doubt equities will see some degree of retrace in the relatively near term, but it is very difficult to guess how deep the retrace might be... and in my view, it will be an overly risky trade.
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*with the bigger weekly/monthly equity cycles turning back to bullish, I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX for the remainder of this year.

INTC - soaring toward key resistance

With the main market closing significantly higher, there was particular strength in Intel (INTC), settling +3.0% @ $34.38. Next resistance are the $35s from late May. A few daily closes in the $35s would bode very bullish for INTC.. and the broader market into next year.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

Summary

Suffice to note.. INTC continues to soar.. and it looks like it will see a break above what proved to be key resistance this summer.

A monthly close >$35 looks more viable for November.. but regardless of whether Oct, Nov.. or even a little later.. the current price action in INTC is a very bullish sign for the broader US equity market.

DIS - relentless force strength

Whilst the broader market closed moderately lower, there was once again notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +0.2% @ $110.09 (intra high 111.56), the highest level since the earnings collapse of August 5th. There will be some strong resistance in the 111/115 zone.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

*closing daily candle is a black-fail.. and that is usually bearish.
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Little to add.

DIS is one of the top 3 leader Dow stocks... and as the Star Wars hysteria builds... how could DIS not broadly rally into year end?
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Bullish Sith

AAPL - cruising higher

Whilst the broader market saw a third day of relative chop, there was notable strength in Apple (AAPL), which settled +1.8% @ $113.78 (intra high 114.17). Near term outlook is bullish to the $116s.. above that, there is open air to the 200dma in the 120s.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say... AAPL is broadly following the main market, but it does have stronger underlying upward pressure.

A test of the 200dma looks highly probable within the next few weeks.

Where AAPL goes from there.. will be a very important leading indicator for the main market.

DIS - climbing with the Star Wars hysteria

Whilst the broader market saw a day of consolidation, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS) which settled +1.1% @ $109.45. First target is the $113/115 zone.. secondary is the Q2 earnings gap from the 120/122 zone.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say...  with Star War 7 due this festive season.. the hysteria is really starting to build.

The full SW trailer is due on ESPN.. sometime during tonights Monday night football show. No doubt... record ratings will be due.

DIS was one of the leading stocks warning of broader market trouble in early August... and it now appears to be leading the way higher.

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Bullish capital starships.

TVIX, UVXY - a third week of horror

With the VIX -11.9% @ 15.05, the 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY closed net lower for a third consecutive week, by -15.4% and -16.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers further equity upside to the 200dma of sp'2060..which would likely grind another 10/15% off the infamous widow maker trading vehicles.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX

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As for TVIX and UVXY, another terrible week.. the fifth sig' decline of the last six weeks.

The inherent statistical decay is only adding to the current decline. TVIX has now cooled from $19.90 to $7.00.. a horrific fall of 65%.

Right now, the notion of TVIX clawing back to the upper teens, never mind the $20/30s, seems fanciful. Even if the market gets stuck at sp'2050/60.. and retraces to the 1950s... TVIX will likely only get back to the $10/13 zone and that is assuming it can floor in the 6s.

As ever.. such instruments are (almost always) for short term holds only.

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*I have ZERO interest in being long volatility in the near term, having waved the white flag when sp'1960s and VIX 20.

NFLX - smacked lower on earnings miss

Whilst the main market built significant gains across the day, there was severe weakness in Netflix (NFLX), which settled -8.3% @ $101.05. Near term outlook is uncertain.. with threat of a test of rising support in the 96/93 zone. A rally back to the 110/115 zone is viable within the next 3-8 trading days.. but will be very difficult


NFLX'daily

NFLX'60min

Summary

Suffice to say.. an earnings miss.. and Mr Market used it as an excuse to smack the stock severely lower.

In Wed' AH, the stock printed the $93s before settling around $107.

Today's action saw significantly downside price action.. briefly breaking the key $100 threshold.

Despite the daily close >$100, there is high threat of selling into the weekend.. 96/93 looks very viable.

In any case... even if sp'2060s by end month, NFLX will surely be trading no higher than the 110/115 zone. The Aug' 5th high of $129 now looks a very long way up.. and appears out of range for the rest of the year.

INTC - reversing higher

Intel (INTC) earnings were initially used as an excuse for a sharply lower open (intra low $30.85), but there was a very significant reversal, with INTC settling significantly higher, +2.4% @ $32.81. There is strong resistance across the 32/35 zone.


INTC, daily

INTC, weekly

INTC, monthly

Summary

All things considered, today's net daily gain bodes very well for INTC in the near term.. not least as the broader market has seen a touch of weakness across the last few days.

If INTC can somehow manage a few daily closes in the $35s it would bode for a grander change of trend in the main market.. and offer much higher levels for next year.
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*I have no current position in INTC, but it remains one of my top 3 tech stocks.

DIS - clearing resistance

Whilst the main market closed broadly weak, there was relative strength in Disney (DIS), which settled higher by 0.2% @ $106.56 (intra high 107.39). With a break and hold above the 50/200dmas, the near term outlook is outright bullish to the 113/115 zone.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

Suffice to say, DIS looks headed higher.. at least to the lower end of the previous earnings gap zone around 113/115.

Clearly, the hyper-bulls are going to need to see new highs in the $120s before things are 100% clarified for spring 2016.

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*next earnings are not until Thursday Nov'5th.

TVIX, UVXY - further horror to start the week

Whilst equities saw micro chop, the VIX continued to cool for the tenth consecutive day. The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY settled lower by -11.9% and -13.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for further equity upside.. and VIX cooling.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX

Notably, the VIX weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now negative for the first time since early August.
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As for TVIX/UVXY.. after last weeks horror, considering the main equity market today, it was a truly lousy day for those still resolutely long-volatility.

It is one of those instances where market volatility will continue to cool, even on a day where the market was broadly flat.

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*I have ZERO interest in being long VIX until the next FOMC.

TVIX, UVXY - a second week of horror

With volatility net lower for a second consecutive week, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY continued to implode, settling -21.8% and -22.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued equity strength, to the sp'2040/60 zone, and that will likely equate to VIX remaining subdued in the mid/low teens.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first an update on the VIX

A rather severe net weekly decline of -18.4%... settling @ 17.08. The 15/14s look probable if sp'2050/60s before end month.

It is notable that the VIX weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle will turn negative at next Monday's open. Certainly, that does support the notion of further equity upside for at least another week or two.
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As for TVIX and UVXY.. well, the broader decline from the Aug' highs continues.. and we've now seen TVIX fall from $19.90 to $8.12.

As ever... such leveraged instruments for (almost always) for short term holds only.. due to their inherent statistical decay.
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*I have no position in the VIX.. having closed out (for a sig' loss) at the Monday open.. when VIX was 20.30.

NFLX - jumps on higher prices

With the market battling upward into the close, Netflix (NFLX) was showing particular strength, seeing a powerful reversal from a low of $102.60... and settling +6.5% @ $115.16. There was chatter of a $1 a month subscription increase, and that really inspired an uptick in market mood toward the company.


NFLX, daily

NFLX 5min

Summary

Suffice to note...

The news of a price hike is very bullish, and it was not entirely surprising to see such a powerful intraday reversal.

Clearly.. NFLX is going to garner a lot of media attention in the immediate term.. and much higher levels look due.. at least to the 120/125 zone.

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I am HUGE fan of the shows now being churned out of what used to be a rather tedious online streaming website.

The deep business tie with Marvel (owned by Disney) is going to result in at least FIVE different series of shows across the next few years. 



yours..

Bullish: Jessica Jones, Daredevil, Luke Cage, and Iron Fist.... aka.. the Defenders!

AAPL, DIS - early warnings.. again

Whilst the main equity indexes closed broadly higher, there was again notable weakness in Apple (AAPL) and Disney (DIS), which settled lower by -0.5% and -0.4% respectively. Both stocks were clear early warnings of trouble in early August... and are arguably to be treated similarly right now.


AAPL, daily

DIS, daily

Summary

*INTC was the first stock I identified in mid May.. when it maxed out at $35. AAPL and DIS were the two key Dow stocks that confirmed the initial INTC warning.
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Suffice to say.. considering the broader market, today's net daily declines for AAPL and DIS are a very poor performance.
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*for now, I am in hurry to get involved.. but AAPL and DIS will be primary short-targets in the next down cycle. I would imagine shorting them within 1-2 weeks.

DAL, UAL - airlines flying again

With the broader market seeing further powerful gains, the airlines were similarly on the climb. Delta (DAL) and United (UAL) settled higher by a very significant 4.7% and 3.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish (along with the broader market).. and DAL is already threatening a key breakout above $48.


DAL, daily

UAL, daily

Summary

Suffice to note... both DAL and UAL are looking pretty strong... and look headed higher across the next few weeks.

How the market reacts to earnings... that will be key.. and will determine whether the market rolls over again.. or breaks new historic highs into early 2016.

Best guess: a roll over

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*I exited DAL-short last Friday from $43.45... have ZERO interest to re-short, as the broader market now looks headed for the sp'2040/60 zone.
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TVIX, UVXY - net weekly declines

With the VIX cooling into the weekend, the 2x bullish lev' instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -8.8% and -10.5% respectively. Near term outlook for the VIX is bullish... unless sustained action >sp'1950. It remains notable that the VIX continues to sustainably hold above the key 20 threshold.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -11.3%

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So.. moderate net weekly declines for the 2x VIX instruments.

It is notable that TVIX saw an intra (Tuesday) high of $14.10, and having settled the week at $10.72
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*As ever... such leveraged instruments are (almost always) for very short term holds only. Holding across multiple weeks - never mind months, will see inevitable statistical decay problems.

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*I hold long-VIX across the weekend, seeking renewed upside to the 27/28s

TWTR - a new CEO won't much help

Whilst the broader market saw some moderate weakness, Twitter (TWTR) saw a very significant decline, -8.4% @ $24.67, as the debate about who will become CEO rumbles on. The near/mid term trend remains very bearish, next key support is the psy' level of $20.00.. which seems a given before year end.


TWTR, daily

Summary

Suffice to add, whether Dorsey.. or whomever takes over, TWTR faces significant problems. Just how is it going to build users in the months.. and years ahead?

Further, there is obvious high risk of an alternative appearing at any point. I'm almost surprised there is not a 500 character alternative. We want more text space in our tweets, yes?

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*I have no position, TWTR remains one I keep an eye on, for pure entertainment reasons.