Friday 29 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - battling higher into the weekend

With equities broadly falling into the weekend, the VIX climbed, and that saw the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY attain net weekly gains of 7.9% and 9.7% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside of a further 15/25%.. before renewed cooling into mid May.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 18.8%.

As for TVIX and UVXY.. yes, its a net weekly gain, but both instruments are still significantly net lower on a monthly basis.

TVIX - March 31st close: 4.39   - 3.82:     -13.0% 
UVXY - March 31st close: 19.33 - 17.02:   -11.9%

As ever.. such instruments suffer from statistical decay (amongst other problems).. and holds lasting beyond a few weeks usually end badly.

*yours truly remains long the VIX - via TVIX, am naturally underwater, seeking an exit in the 4.75/5.25 zone next week.

Thursday 28 April 2016

GDX - continuing to push strongly higher

With precious metals on the climb, the related mining stocks similarly followed. The ETF of GDX of settled higher by a rather powerful 4.4% @ $24.26 - the highest level since Sept'2014. If Gold can push to the $1400/1500s this year... GDX is headed for the 35/40 zone - which will make for a 200% gain since the Dec'2015 low.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


With one trading day left of the month, the miners are set for another powerful net monthly gain of around 21%.

The precious metals look very strong, holding well above the breakout as achieved in February.

*If Gold 1400/1500s.. GDX should be in the $35/40 zone by late summer/early autumn.

Wednesday 27 April 2016

AAPL - mid term troubles

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was severe weakness in Apple (AAPL), which settled lower by a very powerful -6.3% @ $97.75 - the lowest close since Feb'29th. Near term outlook offers further downside... not least if the sp'500 breaks under 2060 in early May.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Suffice to add.. Q1 earnings were truly lousy.. and the outlook isn't particularly great.

The market has always had a pretty low tolerance for AAPL - pricing it at what has remained a bizarrely low PE in the low teens.. or even under 10. Now the pressure is really on CEO Tim Cook, as the market is concerned that Q2.. or even Q3 won't offer anything much better.

If.. and it remains the ultimate 'if'... the main market FAILS to break new highs into the summer, then the market will rollover.. and break massively lower.

First key downside target is the Aug'2015 low of $91.11.

From there.. its essentially open air to key fib retraces of the 85s, 82s... and core support around $70.

For now.. talk of AAPL @ $70 will (understandably) be regarded as 'crazy talk'.

But if we are trading in the sp'1600/1500s this summer/autumn... that is where AAPL will (at least) have traded down to.

Tuesday 26 April 2016

DIS - pokes above key resistance

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate chop, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which briefly pushed above the 200dma - and other aspects of resistance, but settling +0.3% @ $104.87. Near term outlook is extremely borderline. From a pure cyclical perspective, DIS - and the main market, are set for cooling mode.

DIS, daily



Suffice to add, DIS is a stock and company I think is a good barometer of the broader market. It has often warned of main market weakness since the market become stuck in late 2014.

Equity/DIS bulls should be battling for a monthly close in the $105s..  back above the monthly 10MA.

Best guess... renewed downside - along with the broader market, but the situation is very borderline.

Monday 25 April 2016

KMI - full of bearish surprises?

With the broader market closing broadly weak, there was notable weakness in Kinder Morgan (KMI) which settled lower by a rather significant -3.4% @ $17.50. Next support is the very wide gap zone of $17-15.

KMI, daily

KMI, monthly, 6yr


*a notable fourth consecutive net daily decline.

Suffice to add, KMI has been stuck since early March around $19.

Near term outlook is bearish to the 17-15 zone.

The key question is whether the broader market - and indeed, KMI, will break the Jan' lows?

Best guess: YES... but that is predicated on the notion of sp'1800s (at least), with Oil back under $30.

*no position, but increasingly monitoring the stock/company.

Friday 22 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - another net weekly decline

With US equity indexes breaking new multi-month highs, the VIX broke a new low of 12.50. The 2x lev' bullish instruments of TVIX and UVXY were naturally on the slide, with net weekly declines of -11.3% and -11.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers increased volatility into end month.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -2.9%

If the sp'2050/40s next week, VIX has a fair opportunity of pushing to the upper teens. Clearly though, sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for some weeks.

As for TVIX and UVXY.. a second net weekly decline, and both instruments naturally broke new historic lows this week.

Since the Feb'11th VIX high of 30.90 - with sp'1810...

TVIX, $13.58 - 3.54 :  -74%
UVXY, $61.92 - 15.51:  -75%

Those are unquestionably dire.. but not surprising numbers, considering such instruments are relentlessly under downward pressure via a number of factors, not least statistical decay.

*yours truly remains underwater.. and even TVIX back in the $5s looks a challenge... and that is with a bearish scenario of sp'2050/40s.. with VIX 18/19s.

Thursday 21 April 2016

GDX - net gains, but vulnerable

With the precious metals closing moderately higher, the miners gained - despite broader market weakness. The miner ETF of GDX settled +2.0% @ $23.29. Near term outlook threatens some cooling to the 21/20s. Broader trend remains powerfully strong.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


*a notable black-fail daily candle... bodes bearish in the short term.

Suffice to add...regardless of any short term cooling, the broader trend is VERY powerful, and we're still net higher for the month by 16.6%.

If Gold $1400/1500s - with broader capital market upset, GDX would likely trade to the $35/40 zone.

Wednesday 20 April 2016

BAC - breaking back above strong resistance

With the US capital market increasingly of the belief that just about everything is fine again, Bank of America (BAC) saw a rather significant gain of 3.4% @ $14.94, the best close since Jan'12th. Next upside is the 200dma in the mid $15s.

BAC, daily

BAC, monthly


Suffice to add, the third consecutive net daily gain... and the 8th positive day of the last 9 trading days.

On a grander monthly chart, the $18 threshold remains key. Those of the hyper-bullish mindset are going to need to see BAC break and attain a monthly close in the $18s to offer concrete evidence that the financial stocks - along with the broader market, will continue pushing higher.

Tuesday 19 April 2016

NFLX - rising support broken

With Q1 earnings/outlook disappointing the market, Netflix (NFLX) started the day badly, and settled powerfully lower, -13.0% @ $94.29, the lowest level since March 1'st. With the loss of the 50dma, next support is the $90 threshold, and then the Feb'8th low of $79.95.

NFLX, daily

NFLX, monthly, 8yr


Suffice to add... I think the company is producing some of the finest shows ever made - not least Sense8, Daredevil and Jessica Jones.

However, the company is increasingly struggling to meet ever demanding market expectations. Despite a better than expected EPS of 6 cents on rev' of almost $2bn.... the market is still not satisfied.

Reading around today, I see an awful lot of 'crash calling' for NFLX, which of course, is somewhat ironic AFTER the market has smacked the stock back under the psy' level of $100.

If.. (and its a big if), the main market fails to keep pushing higher into the summer - and eventually breaks <sp'1810, then NFLX looks especially vulnerable. A move to at least test the Feb' low around $80 looks very viable.

The giant monthly cycle offers the $60/50 zone across the rest of this year.

*no position... I shall merely continue to enjoy the content.

Monday 18 April 2016

DIS - its all fine in Disneyland again

With the broader market continuing to break further aspects of upside resistance, Disney (DIS) saw notable strength, settling +2.9% @ $101.49, the highest level since Jan'13th. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 200dma in the $104/105s. Any daily closes >106 would be extremely bullish for DIS and the main market.

DIS' daily

DIS' monthly


Suffice to note, it was a pretty strong day for DIS, and is seemingly on course (at least) to test the 200dma another $3/4 higher.

Things really get bullish in the $106s, which would be highly suggestive of new historic highs later this year.

The monthly 10MA in the $104s is important. An April.. or May close, in the $105s would be enough to negate what little hope the bears still had for further downside to the $80/75 zone.

Friday 15 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - back on the slide

With US equities breaking new multi-month highs, the VIX cooled across much of the week. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw significant net weekly declines of -15.3% and -16.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers some equity cooling, but not likely enough to break the VIX beyond the 16s.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -11.3%.

As for TVIX and UVXY, the declines were not surprising considering the VIX melted back to the mid 13s.. along with sp'2087 and Dow 17962.

The ultimate issue is whether the current 'melting lower' trend will continue for days, weeks.. or even months (in the case of Dow >18351, sp >2134).

*yours truly remains long TVIX... and my one solace is that at least I didn't buy above $5.. which itself looks a tough upside target to hit next week.

It should be clear.. if US equities are able to drive above Dow 18K.. with sp'2120s.. it will be 100% white flag waving time. If we see those levels, I would likely implement a 'no long VIX' rule for the rest of the year.

Thursday 14 April 2016

GDX - a second rough day for the miners

With precious metals continuing to cool (Gold -$17), the related mining stocks were similarly on the slide. The ETF of GDX settled significantly lower by -2.9% @ $21.60. For now, the broader upward trend remains intact. Even if broken, the $20/19 zone should provide strong support.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Suffice to add... the second consecutive daily decline for the gold/silver miners, but overall... gold/mining bugs have little to be concerned about in the mid term.

The recent strength in the USD is clearly putting some downward pressure on Gold. Further, the increased confidence within US/world capital markets is taking away some of the 'fear bid' that Gold has been attracting since last December.

Broadly... bullish metals/miners into the summer.

Wednesday 13 April 2016

GDX - miners cooling with Gold

With US/world capital markets in an increasingly confident mood, Gold saw some distinct weakness, and that was no doubt at least partly responsible for some weakness in the related mining stocks. The miner ETF of GDX settled -2.6% @ $22.28.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


*miners are currently net higher for the FIFTH consecutive month, the best run since late 2010.

Despite the net daily decline, the miners - along with the precious metals, are comfortably holding above the very decisive breakout as built from Dec-March.

*USD. Another important factor likely in today's decline was the continued (short term) strength in the dollar.. which is trying to break back into the DXY 95s.. a mere 5-6% away from the giant 100 threshold.

Tuesday 12 April 2016

CHK - gaseous junk at the 200dma

Whilst the broader market closed broadly higher, there was hyper strength in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) which settled higher by an extreme 34.7% @ $6.06. There is immediate resistance at the 200dma of $6.12, any break above there would open up the $9/10s.

CHK, daily

CHK, monthly


With WTIC oil in the $42s, the energy stocks were capturing an extra strong bid today.

Notably, with recent news that CHK will maintain (at least in the short term) its $4bn line of credit, the stock is drawing in the bullish chasers.

From a pure perspective, the giant monthly cycle is offering a bullish MACD (green bar histogram) cross in 2-5 weeks.

From a fundamental perspective, it is hard to believe energy prices has seen a definitive floor. If Oil/Nat' gas see renewed downside into the summer/autumn, stocks like CHK will break new lows.

*no position, and I'd rather just get some matches and burn some dollars, than waste time/energy in going long CHK. The company still looks set to disappear.

Monday 11 April 2016

GDX - miners soaring with Gold and Silver

With the precious metals starting the week with very significant gains, the related mining stocks were similarly on the rise. The miner ETF of GDX saw a powerful net daily gain of 5.9% @ $22.71, a clear break above recent highs. There is effectively open air to the $23/24s in the immediate term.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Considering we're not even half way through the month, the miners are already net higher for April by a very powerful 13.7%. The upper monthly bollinger in the mid $23s offers first core upside resistance.

From a pure price perspective, any monthly closes >$24 would argue for hyper upside to the 35/40 zone within a few months.

.. and based on the price action from Dec-March.. that would bode bearish for the broader US/world equity market.

*Dare I cite Oscar Carboni, and note that Gold is not trading this way for no reason!

*no position, have been overly focused in equities/volatility. Still seeking to be long Gold/miners, and clearly now it would be a case of chasing higher.

Friday 8 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - net weekly gains

With the VIX seeing a net weekly gain of 17.2%, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY managed the first gains in 2 months, settling net higher by 12.4% and 14.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers a further 15/25% upside, before cooling into opex (April 15th).

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 17.2%

As for TVIX and UVXY, it was a somewhat disappointing end to the week. However, despite net Friday declines, the daily candles were of the reversal (hollow red) type, and bode for renewed upside on Monday.

The upper bollinger for TVIX will be around $6 on Monday, and that is arguably the highest level it might manage across next week.

UVXY will have strong resistance around $25/26.

*I continue to hold TVIX, seeking an exit in the $5.50/6.00 zone next Mon/Tuesday. I would imagine there is high opportunity that I would then be able to buy back in the 5.25/4.75 zone by next Thurs/Friday.

Thursday 7 April 2016

DB - the big system threat to the EU

With the main market closing significantly lower, there was particular weakness in Deutsche Bank AG (DB), which settled -4.7% @ $15.40, the lowest close since Feb'11th. A break of the Feb'9th low of $14.78 looks inevitable, and it is justifiable that DB is a valid name to also be on the 'disappear list'.

DB, daily

DB, monthly


From a pure price perspective, the financials are unquestionably suffering due to continuing low/negative interest rates.

The central banks simply don't much seem to notice or care, about the destruction they are causing to the very institutions they bailed out just seven years ago.

Regardless of any near term price action, DB looks set to lose the psy' level of $10 by early summer... and at that point, the mainstream will probably start wondering if there is a serious problem.

*no position. I prefer to merely short the indexes... but DB is a key institution to keep an eye on... not least for those who live within the EU.

Wednesday 6 April 2016

CREE - lights out

Whilst the main equity market closed broadly higher, there was severe weakness in CREE, which imploded -14.6% @ $24.80 (intra low 23.53). With a severe break lower, next support is the Nov'13th low of $22.10.

CREE, daily

CREE, monthly


Suffice to add, a profits warning from CREE has resulted in the stock imploding.

Recent price structure though was a multi-week bear flag, so the new down wave is not entirely surprising.

If the Nov'2015 low of $22s does not hold, next support is not until the psy' level of $20. Any price action <20 would bode for further broad weakness to the Dec'2008 low of $12.57.

I actually like CREE, who doesn't need light bulbs, especially the new LED type? As a company, CREE is clearly under performing, and the market is not tolerating it.

One to watch.. especially if it fails to hold the $20 threshold this summer.

Tuesday 5 April 2016

BAC - remaining broadly very weak

Whilst the main market closed broadly lower, there was notable weakness in Bank of America (BAC), which settled lower by a rather significant -2.4% @ $13.18. BAC - like most financials, continues to suffer due to central bank rate policy... mid term outlook offers the $11/10s.

BAC, daily

BAC, monthly


With the US fed unlikely to raise rates until Q4 - not least if the equity market eventually finds it way to the sp'1600s, the financials are still suffering.

BAC looks highly problematic, and despite a market ramp from sp'1810-2075, the stock is still unable to clear key resistance of the $14-14.50 zone.

Near term outlook offers weak chop... with mid-term offering the $11/10s.

*any daily/weekly closes under the $10 threshold would have to be seen as a critical warning of a main market crash... and that would take BAC to around $5... back to levels from late 2011.. when sp'1074.

For now.. such a negative outlook is on hold... but the 'sub $10 warning' issue is something to keep in mind.

Monday 4 April 2016

F - a real mess since summer 2014

Whilst the main market settled moderately lower, there was notable weakness in Ford Motors (F), which closed significantly lower, -2.3% @ $12.80. With a consistent failure to break/hold the $14s, Ford looks highly vulnerable to the $10-8 zone.. not least if sp'1600s later this year.

Ford, daily

Ford, monthly


Suffice to add, I like the company, great products, but from a pure chart/price perspective, price action since summer 2014 has been a real mess.

Ford has been utterly unable to attain a monthly close >$17 since 2001.

Considering the serious threat of another main market rollover, the $10 threshold does not look an overly bearish target at some point this summer/autumn.

The bigger monthly cycle is offering core support around $8.. and that is a full third lower.

Friday 1 April 2016

TVIX, UVXY - a seventh week lower

With the equity market breaking a new cycle high of sp'2075, and the VIX remaining very subdued - new cycle low of 13.00, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -20.0% and -21.9% respectively. For now, there is still no definitive sign of a short term floor/turn.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -11.1%

As for TVIX and UVXY, a seventh net weekly decline is the worse run since Oct-Dec 2014.

Clearly, there is going to be some kind of multi-week up swing, but for the moment, there is simply no clear floor/turn, not least with the VIX breaking a new cycle low of 13.00 this Friday afternoon.

*I remain long the VIX - via TVIX. A few weeks ago, an entry in the $4s seemed out of range, and even though I did get finally get involved in the upper $4s, I'm already significantly underwater.

The one upside, unlike VIX option calls, I don't have a ticking detonator clock to worry about. Although there is the usual 'statistical decay' problem of course.

Unless sp'500 breaks and holds above the next key level of 2081, I am content to hold.