Friday 28 June 2013

GDX - a horrific June for the miners

Despite a daily closing gain of 7%, the Gold miners ETF of GDX still declined 17.3% across June. GDX is incredibly now getting close to the collapse wave lows of 2008. Monthly trend still remains dire, and there really isn't any sign that the miners have yet floored.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


The Gold mining ETFs are very much looking like the charts for Gold/Silver, and that is arguably very appropriate.

Trading volume in GDX - and indeed GLD/SLV has exploded in recent months as traders have started to chase/jump aboard what remains very strong downside momentum.

At some point this nightmarish decline will come to an end, but frankly, that could still be another year or two away.

Best case, the miners level out towards the latter part of this year, and then build a secure floor across 2014, before beginning a new secular bull market - along with Gold/Silver.

Thursday 27 June 2013

F - stronger than the main market

Whilst the main indexes were around 0.5-0.75% higher, Ford (F) was again far stronger, closing +2.4% @ $15.66. Ford has risen $1.30 (9%) from the Monday low, and is now just 2% from breaking the recent high in the low 16s.

Ford, daily


Today was yet another example of how when the market is at least moderately higher, Ford will be leading the way.

Near term trend looks bullish, but like the main market, it is highly vulnerable to one further down cycle in early July.

The mid/long term trend though, is unquestionably still very bullish.

Wednesday 26 June 2013

AAPL - unable to hold the $400s

Whilst the main market closed around 1% higher, AAPL was particularly weak, closing -$4.61 @ $398. The failure to close in the $400s will doubtless increase the downward pressure across the next few days. Next key support is the April'19th low of $382.

AAPL, daily


A particularly lousy daily close for AAPL.

A test of the recent low now seems a given, and the only issue is whether it will hold.

If my main market outlook is correct, with sp' hitting 1530s, that will surely equate to AAPL in the low 380s, if not 370s, even the 350s (briefly).

I do expect sp'1500s to hold, with some significant rally into late July/early August. Even if AAPL breaks a new low, it'll surely break back into the mid 400s within 4-6 weeks.

Relative to the main market, it remains a bizarrely under-valued company, although clearly, its probably 'passed its prime'.

Tuesday 25 June 2013

MRO - powerful underlying strength

Whilst the main indexes had to fight really hard for moderate gains, Marathon Oil (MRO) powered strongly upward, closing +3.9% @ $35.01. Near term price action is susceptible to further main market weakness, but today's action showed the underlying upward strength.

MRO, daily


MRO remains one of my favourite stocks to watch. When the market is at least moderately higher, MRO is usually storming higher - just look at the rally from the mid-April sp'1536 low!

My near term main market outlook is for further weakness. If correct, MRO is likely to come down to the $32s again, where the 200 day MA is lurking.

I expect that to hold, and then MRO will probably make a serious attempt to break new highs in early August.

Monday 24 June 2013

TCK - the horror continues

With the main market again weak, and the metals seeing significant declines, Teck Resources (TCK) saw severe declines, closing -7% @ $20.27. Near term trend is a nightmare situation, and with the break of the $24s, there really is no longer any support.

TCK, daily


Suffice to say, the horror does indeed continue, with no sign of it ending.

If my near term market outlook is correct, with the sp @ 1500 within 3-7 trading days, then TCK is going to lose the $20 psy' level, and then see another fast drop to the $17/15 zone.

Friday 21 June 2013

F - following the main market

Ford (F) is closely following the price action in the main indexes, and with the market seeing some moderate latter day recovery, Ford closed above the earlier lows, +1.2% @ $15. Slight upside for Monday seems likely, but then 1-2 weeks of downside to 14.00/13.50.

F, daily


Ford is very much in sync with the main US markets, although is one of the more stronger stocks/companies out there.

If the main market outlook is correct - sp'1550/30 by mid July, then Ford will very likely fall to $14, if not the mid 13s. A further fifth wave higher into Aug/Sept, would then see Ford break to new highs, perhaps even challenging the early 2011 highs - into the $17/18s.

Ford is unquestionably a great company, and one that continues to be a good barometer of the main US market.

Thursday 20 June 2013

FCX - snaps through support

With the main equity market getting somewhat smashed for the second consecutive day, Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (FCX) declined a very significant 5% to settle @ $27.72. Near term trend looks dire, and there is no real support until the $25s.

FCX, daily


Suffice to say, after some weeks holding the low $29s, with the main equity market falling <sp'1598, FCX is broadly falling as expected.

There is simply no support for another 7-10% or so.

*Something to keep in mind is the price action of Copper

Copper, monthly'2, - fib levels

It would appear Copper is about to lose the $3 level, and obvious target would be the low $2s. If that is the case, then FCX is in real danger of flashing to the low 20s..perhaps even 15. Although the latter looks very difficult, unless the main market breaks <sp'1500, which I do not expect.

What is clear, FCX remains one of the best miners in the world, and is now also involved in the Oil/Gas sector. Long term prospects look superb, but both the near and mid term price charts look rather dire indeed.

Wednesday 19 June 2013

TCK - critical support....gone

With the main market unravelling in late afternoon, Teck Resources (TCK) was particularly hit, falling a very significant 4.9% @ $22.42. Near term trend looks dire..and there is simply no 'technical support' until the 2008 collapse low of $2.46, which is around 90% lower.

TCK, daily


TCK was weak even when the market was moderately higher this morning. It was no surprise to see the stock down over 4 percent by the close.

With critical support now broken, from a purely technical perspective, the stock is broken, and is headed deeply lower.

Of course, there will be very significant support at the psy' levels of 20, 15, and 10.

It remains a rather scary thought to wonder if this stock will actually be trading in the $2s within the next year or two.

Tuesday 18 June 2013

MRO - cruising higher

With the main equity market climbing for the second day running, Marathon Oil (MRO) closed significantly higher, +3% @ $36.05. Near term trend continues to offer upside, although there will no doubt be resistance in the $36.40/60s.

MRO, daily


Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) is set to go positive cycle at the Wednesday open. Similarly, a bullish MACD cross is due tomorrow.

MRO price formation looks a very obvious very large bull flag, and a hit of the big $40 level looks viable in July - and that would match up with the sp' in the 1725/50 area.

Monday 17 June 2013

GRMN - trying to recover

With the main equity market closing higher, Garmin (GRMN) closed very well, +3.6% @ $34.94. Near term trend looks set for further upside, but there is strong resistance in the $36/37 zone. The 200 day MA in the mid 37s will only add to preventing significant upside.

GRMN, daily


Garmin is an interesting company. It remains highly profitable, with good net margins of around 20%, and current forward PE is 15 - broadly inline with the main market.

key stats @ yahoo! finance

From a price perspective, the chart is VERY weak on a mid-term perspective, and I don't expect GRMN to be trading much about 36/37 this summer - even if the sp' is trading in the 1700s this July/August.

Considering the profit margins, its under-valued, but Mr Market looks set to break it below $32.50 this Aug/Sept.

Best guess..Sept' floor @ $30.

Friday 14 June 2013

RIG - climbing against the main market

Despite the main market closing on a somewhat weak note, Transocean (RIG) managed a second day higher, closing +1.1% @ $49.29. There is strong declining resistance for Monday in the mid 49s. If RIG can break into the 50s, a new up cycle would be confirmed.

RIG, daily


Wednesday was indeed a rough day for RIG, and with the loss of the 200 day MA, RIG was whacked into the low 48s.

Yet, RIG now appears to have stabilised, and is making a renewed push higher. Friday's close was especially bullish, in the face of the main indexes which all closed moderately lower.

For next Monday, and indeed the week, RIG merely needs to put in a few consecutive daily closes in the $50s. If that is done, then the door is open to much higher levels. at least a test of the recent high of the $55s - which is a clear 10% higher from current levels.

*I'm not currently long RIG (bailed a week ago at $52), but am long MRO. Both RIG and MRO should trade somewhat similar next week.

Thursday 13 June 2013

SCCO - big jump within a down trend

With the main indexes seeing a strong upside reversal after minor opening declines, Southern Copper (SCCO) closed significantly higher, +3.3% @ $30.25. Near term trend looks moderately bullish, but there is very strong declining resistance around $32.50.

SCCO, daily


I am always in favour of the miners, real companies, doing real work, for a commodity the world needs! Yet, commodities peaked in early 2011, and the broader down trend continues.

Copper itself looks very weak, and a break under $3 looks possible later this summer, unless the central banks can somehow get some inflation into the system.

SCCO is one of the stronger miners out there, yet it remains in a very strong down trend, having fallen from $41 in late January to the low $29s - that's a good 25% !

If the main market rolls over in July - after putting in one final high, then the miners will surely be even lower later this year.

Wednesday 12 June 2013

CNX - another rough day

With the main equity market closing very weak, the coal miners again slipped. Consol Energy (CNX) fell 1.7% @ $31.81. There is trend support in the mid 31s, and if the main equity market holds above sp'1598, CNX should start to rally from current levels.

CNX, daily


CNX is one of the biggest coal miners out there (they are also involved in Nat' Gas).

From a technical perspective, this was the second daily close below the 200 day MA, and the sixth close below the 50 day MA. Certainly, this is a broken stock, that has struggled so far this year.

Indeed, the entire mining sector remains under severe pressure.

If CNX fails to hold the mid 31s this Thur/Friday, there is open air down to the March low of $29.50. However, underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is very low, and we're more than overdue some degree of rally.

Tuesday 11 June 2013

BTU - coal miners close to the 2008 lows

With the main market on the slide, the coal miners especially suffered. Peabody Energy (BTU) declined a very significant 4.4% @ $17.63. BTU is now just over $2 away from the 2008 low of $15.37. Near term trend looks very weak, but is arguably oversold.

BTU, daily


It is incredible that BTU has fallen over 30% so far this year, and that's with the main equity market having risen from sp'1400 to the 1620s.

What would BTU be if the sp' gets whacked later this summer?

The $15s now look likely to be hit within the next few months. The only issue is whether the $10 psy' level might be hit.

Monday 10 June 2013

TCK - on another down wave

Whilst the main markets saw a quiet day, Teck Resources (TCK) closed lower by 2.4% @ $24.57. TCK has fallen over 30% since the start of the year, along with the general mining sector, but no doubt today's fall was largely a result of the stock going ex-dividend.

TCK, daily

TCK, 5 year


I've followed TCK for a fair few years, but not that closely lately. I was actually reminded of it today by Mr Knight, over at slope of hope.

What is absolutely clear, when you look a 4-5 yr chart, TCK looks dire in terms of its price formation. It is arguably a giant H/S formation - much like FCX, and many other of the mining stocks, and its on the edge of breaking critical support.

There is simply ZERO support under $24, all the way down to the Nov' 2008 low of $2.46.

Now, I'm certainly not suggesting TCK is going to lose 90% in the next 6-18 months, but it sure wouldn't be the first major miner to go under in the past few years. Remember Patriot Coal (PCX) ? That went from the $24s to effectively zero.

As a company, TCK is a good dividend payer, has reasonable net margins of 8%, and looks generally 'okay'.

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

Certainly, I don't like TCK as a short right now. However, when the main equity market rally does finally get stuck this summer, TCK might be a very valid short. Whether its under $20 at that time, that's too difficult to say.

Friday 7 June 2013

TVIX, UVXY - smacked lower into the weekend

With the main indexes back on the rise, the VIX closed the week -9%, and the 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY naturally fell by 8.6% and 9.2% respectively. Near term trend looks pretty dire, with VIX set to be back in the 14/13s sometime next week.

TVIX ,daily

UVXY, daily


*first keep in mind the daily VIX chart

Today's closing candle was a very important confirmation of yesterdays reversal day in the VIX. We've now slipped from the mid 18s to the low 15s in barely 8 trading hours.

It bodes very badly for early next week, and all things considered, VIX does look set for the 14s, if not the 13s in the latter part of next week.

As for TVIX and UVXY, well, both got smacked lower into the close, and frankly, its to be entirely expected. Its almost a little surprising they held up as well as they did - considering they are 2x VIX moves, although of course, the further out volatility is holding up a little better.

If the VIX is back in the 13s by next Friday, then both TVIX and UVXY will be a good 10/15% lower.

*At some point this summer - perhaps late July/early August, the main equity market is set for a much stronger wave lower, and the VIX will have its first real opportunity to spike above the key 20 threshold.

Yet that is indeed a few weeks, if not another month or two away.

Thursday 6 June 2013

F - bouncing off rising channel support

With the main indexes rebounding in the latter part of the day, Ford (F) similarly recovered, closing +1.25% @ $15.44. The earlier low of $15.06 was effectively right on key rising channel support. Near term upside would be a rather conservative $16.25/50.

F, daily


Suffice to say, with the main market having potentially floored at sp'1598,  the price pressure is likely to be back to the upside.

For Ford, the $16s look viable as early as next week. The big question is whether Ford is going to be able to challenge the Jan'2011 high in the $18s, before the current up cycle is complete.

Wednesday 5 June 2013

TXN - first big decline in seven weeks

With the main markets seeing further weakness, Texas Instruments (TXN) closed -2.1% @ $35.87. There is near term support at the 50 day MA of 35.73, but if the main market fails to hold sp'1600, TXN is in danger of slipping back to the $33s

TXN, daily


TXN remains one of the better tech stocks out there. Very profitable, and it has been a market leader since last autumn, rising over 30%.

Today's drop of over 2% is clearly something of a major move, but it does nothing to dent the primary trend..which is still to the upside.

Only if TXN makes a few daily closes <$33, could the bigger picture perhaps be turning to the downside.

Tuesday 4 June 2013

MRO - new highs look viable

With the main indexes seeing weakness as the day progressed, Marathon Oil (MRO) similarly saw weakness, closing -1.4% @ $34.94. Price action of the past two weeks could be a bull flag, and would be highly suggestive of at least a re-test of the recent high in the upper $36s

MRO, daily


MRO closed down today, but it importantly held above the low from last Friday. So, we have a reasonably secure near term floor, and now the issue is just how high can it go.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still in negative territory, and ticked back lower today. Yet, considering the main market, I'd expect that to go positive no later than early next week.

The big issue in my view is just how high can MRO go this summer? Largely of course, it will be dependent upon the main equity market. If sp' can manage new highs in the low 1700s, then MRO would surely break into the 37/38s, perhaps even test the next psy' level of $40.

Considering the quality of the company, I'd be looking for $50 in the mid-term, but as trading day.. at a time.

*I am long MRO, seeking an exit in the low $36s, within the next 2-3 days.

Monday 3 June 2013

F - battling towards the $18s

With the main indexes climbing into the close, Ford (F) closed +1.2% @ $15.88. Primary upside target is the peak from Jan'2011 - the low $18s. Baring a major down turn in the main market, Ford looks set for another 15% higher before the next wave lower.

F, daily


Yet another higher close for Ford, and it was an impressive close, after weakness earlier in the day.

With the main equity market seemingly now stabilising in the sp'1620s, Ford looks set to remain in what is a very strong...and consistent up channel.

Primary target is $18, which would appear very viable by late July.

*if the main market gets whacked (for whatever reason) in late summer, then the obvious pull back would be to the old resistance of $14.00.