Tuesday 30 April 2013

AAPL - back to flat, for the monthly close

Despite a seven day ramp - in sync with the main indexes, AAPL still only closed April flat. Near term trend is clearly still to the upside though. Next key target will be a daily close above the Feb' high of $480. The big $500 psy' level will be difficult, after that...the 200 day MA @ $540s

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


AAPL is certainly seeing some consistent upside, and is indeed leading both the Nasdaq and broader market higher since the recent lows.

The huge monthly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is starting to show the first sign of levelling out, but its nothing conclusive yet.

Arguably, things will only become clear if AAPL can close May in the 500s.

*those seeking equity weakness across May/early June should be really concerned, if AAPL is representative of the broader market. After all, if AAPL is now beginning a natural bounce to the monthly 10MA in the mid 500s (where the 200 day MA also lurks), that would bode for sp'1700s by July/August.

Even for those who never trade it, AAPL remains one key stock to watch.

Monday 29 April 2013

AAPL - another breakout attempt

With the main indexes showing continued strength, Apple (AAPL) was a key leader, closing +3.1% @ $430. AAPL is now back above key declining trend resistance, but there are further hurdles with the 50 day MA of $433 and upper daily bollinger @ $445.

AAPL, daily


Today was day'6 of this up cycle, and AAPL has now climbed $44 - around 12% ! So, the bulls have had a good bounce, but is it merely going to end like the failed breakout in late March?

Arguably, AAPL needs to clear the late March peak of $469, and put in a few daily closes >470. If that can be done, then a challenge of the 200 day MA - a very considerable way higher in the mid 500s will be viable in May/June.

For those seeking an index rollover across May, it is clear that AAPL will need to see a rollover back under the key declining trend. Right now, near term trend is to the upside, and its difficult to envision AAPL back under $400.

Friday 26 April 2013

GDX - lousy end to the week

With Gold and Silver seeing overnight gains flip to declines, the Gold mining sector saw significant weakness across the day. GDX declined by 3.2% @ $29.61. Near term price formation looks like a bear flag, with strong resistance at the old support in the upper $33s.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


Even if GDX can manage a few more days higher next week, it faces severe problems. There are two key gaps to be filled - as is also the case for GLD and SLV, with massive resistance at the old support in the 33s.

I find it near impossible to believe GDX can break above 33s. Even more critical to recognise is the old declining trend (from Sept' 2012) - now in the $38s.

If the main equity market rolls lower into May, - along with renewed weakness in the Gold and Silver commodity market, then GDX looks likely to take out the recent low in the 27s.

First downside target is 25, but 20s seem possible if the precious metals market sees another major wave of destruction in May/June.

Thursday 25 April 2013

TVIX - fractional gain..before a surge?

With the indexes seeing some late afternoon weakness, the VIX managed to close a touch positive, and the 2x bullish VIX instrument of TVIX closed +1 cent @ $2.87. With the VIX seemingly floored in the low 13s, TVIX still looks set to surge in the coming days.

TVIX, daily


First, a look at the daily VIX

VIX has conclusively broken outside of the down channel, and looks like it has a pretty secure floor in the low 13s. Daily VIX chart offers the 17s as early as tomorrow, that's a good 25% higher.

For TVIX, VIX 17s would probably equate to at least $3.40/50.

Friday will be....interesting.

Wednesday 24 April 2013

TVIX, UVXY - set to surge

The indexes look exhausted after a three day (wave'2) bounce. If the VIX has floored in the mid 13s, the natural upside target is now a break into the low 20s. The 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY look set to surge across the next 5-7 trading days.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First..an update on the VIX...

The VIX itself only closed fractionally higher today, but its broken outside of the down channel, and the low 15s look viable as early as Thursday morning. The ultimate issue is whether VIX can break above the key 20 threshold, and considering last weeks action, I think that issue is now largely clarified.

As for TVIX and UVXY, a VIX surge into the 20s would probably see very significant gains of anywhere from 50-100%. The range is very wide, since it really depends on the style of decline that the indexes might see. If its a choppy slower decline to sp'1490/80, then VIX will likely see less 'kick', and the inevitable index micro-bounces will similarly likely mitigate gains.

As ever, all leveraged instruments are for short term trading only. Last weeks action was another reminder of what happens when you hold overnight after a very significant VIX spike.

Tuesday 23 April 2013

NFLX - overvalued nonsense

Netflix (NFLX) snapped higher after Q1 earnings were slightly above expectations, with the stock closing +24% in the $216s. Despite the 'better than expected' numbers, the company is barely making $1.50 a year, and that makes for a PE of around 120 or so. Simply..insane.

NFLX, daily


There is little to be said on this 'hysteria' surrounded stock. The mainstream media love NFLX, as do the momentum chasers. Even worse though, there are still people out there under the impression that this is a highly profitable and successful company.

Sure it has a very large customer base, but it faces increasing competition, and despite its popularity, NFLX is still struggling to make any money at all.

see stats @ yahoo! finance.

I've little doubt the long term business model - if it ever had one, is busted..and simply can't work on a longer term basis.

I've never traded NFLX, more than anything, it remains nothing other than a freak show curiosity.

Monday 22 April 2013

TVIX - begins the week on a downer

With the indexes battling back upward into the afternoon, the VIX slipped -4%, and pushed TVIX back to the downside, closing -3.4% @ $3.15 Near term trend looks like the $3.05/2.90s will be hit early Tuesday.  Mid-term (equity bear) outlook would equate to TVIX in the 5/6s.

TVIX, daily


First, note the daily VIX chart

Near term VIX trend is clearly in a cool-off phase after last weeks multiple spikes into the 17/18s.

TVIX is naturally slipping lower, and a further fall of 3-5% seems a given, if sp' can break into the low 1570s, with VIX in the high 13s.

As ever....even if TVIX/VIX soar higher in the latter part of this week, VIX bulls should usually have a default policy of cashing out on any significant VIX spike. The bounce last Tuesday was another reminder that the VIX sure can hyper-spike, but almost always..is smacked lower the very next day.

Friday 19 April 2013

TVIX, UVXY - weakness into the weekend

With the main indexes starting a small wave'2 bounce, the VIX significantly fell, and that caused the 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY to close the week on a downer, falling 12.4 and 14.6% respectively. VIX gained 23% this week, and looks set to explode later next week.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, a look at the volatility index

VIX weekly, 2yr

Despite the Friday decline of 15%, the VIX still managed very significant gains of 23% this week. Underlying MACD cycle is looking pretty bullish, and the only issue seems 'how high'..rather than 'will it fall'.

Best guess...VIX will be in the low 20s by the end of next week, and the mid 25s look viable by early May.

As for TVIX and UVXY, today was again a reminder that these things are for short term trading only. Those VIX longs who exited Thursday afternoon should be very pleased with themselves. They will be able to re-enter new VIX long positions at a discount of 25-40% by next Tuesday.

If my near term outlook for the market is correct - with sp'1480s by early May, then VIX looks set to soar into the mid 20s..which would very likely see both TVIX and UVXY double from this weeks closing levels.

Thursday 18 April 2013

AAPL - back in the 300s

Apple (AAPL) fell with the main indexes today, closing -2.7% @ $392. This was the first daily close below $400 since Jan'2012. Near & mid term trends both look weak, and primary downside target for May/June is the lower monthly bollinger band - in the 320s.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Suffice to say, AAPL remains on the slide, and the $700s - from Sept'2012 now look an almighty ways higher.

AAPL remains one of the better companies out there, with a customer base that dwarfs just about every company out there..yet price trend IS still falling.

The low $300s look likely into the early summer - even if the main market doesn't particularly slip much below sp'1400.

At some point AAPL will floor, and it when the big monthly trend starts to turn...there will be very significant upside ahead. Yet..that time is clearly some months away.

Wednesday 17 April 2013

GDX - just another day of horror

With the main equity market closing lower, and the precious metals failing to hold opening gains, the miners continue to suffer. The Gold miner ETF of GDX closed another 4.7% lower @ $27.45. There is still no sign of this extreme downtrend ending.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


The mining sector charts are simply incredible to see, whether daily, weekly, or the huge monthly. It remains an absolute horror story since the big turn in September 2011 - which was (ironically) when the main US indexes floored @ sp'1074.

Primary target zone for GDX remains 25, and the low 20s are viable as early as late May/June.

One of my favourite companies remains Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold (FCX). yet we're now approaching a multi-year support level which..if broken, is a giant red flag for the main market.

FCX, daily

A break <27..bodes for a secondary deflationary collapse wave - in the style of 2008, with an FCX target of 15/10 in late 2013/early 2014.

FCX remains one of the best companies out there, but..Copper looks like it will break <$3 soon, and if that's the case, then the $2.00 level will become a very natural target.

For the deflationary doomer bears out there, watch for FCX <27, with Copper <$3.

Tuesday 16 April 2013

GDX - failed rally...another red close

Gold and Silver both opened sharply higher, and the Gold miners similarly opened higher by around 3%, yet...there was immediate weakness from the open, and the miners ETF of GDX actually managed another red close, -1.1% @ $28.71. Near term trend remains dire.

GDX, daily


For those watching the open it was a classic gap open failure. A black candle on the hourly charts..and both GDX and the precious metals themselves slipped back across the day.

The metal managed to hold onto a third of their earlier gains, but GDX sure didn't, and today marked the fifth consecutive daily decline.

Considering GDX lost almost 10% yesterday, it says something about just how weak the sector is, when it can't even maintain a dead cat bounce for more than a few hours.

Near term trend remains downward, there is no sign of a turn, and May/June outlook offers GDX in the 25s..possibly even the low 20s - if the main market rolls over into the sp'1400s.

Monday 15 April 2013

GDX - the horror show continues

With the precious metals collapsing overnight Sunday, it was no surprise to see the gold miners collapse. The Gold miner ETF of GDX closed with an extremely severe decline of 9.9% @ $29.02. Near term trend shows no sign of a turn..and the ultimate target remains 25/20.

GDX, daily


With a truly historic collapse in both Gold and Silver commodity prices, GDX was always set to collapse, but a further 10% drop is indeed somewhat scary. Trading volume was extreme, with 73 million traded, verses a typical 10 million.

The big 30 fails

What is clear, with the break of the big $30 level, there is now empty air to the 25/20 target zone, a level that I have been seeking for more than a year.

The incredible thing about all this is that whilst the miners are now down over 55/60% from the highs of 2011, the US equity market is only a few percent down from the recent highs.

If the main US markets decline into May..and June, will GDX even be able to hold the low 20s?

It will be interesting to see where we are trading in late May/early June, which is the kind of time frame where I expect a mid-term floor to be put in.

Friday 12 April 2013

GDX - miners massacred

With Gold collapsing through critical support, the Gold mining sector ETF - GDX, saw further severe declines, closing -5.7% @ $32.23. Near term trend offers no hope of a turn, and a decline to the big $30 level is very viable early next week. Mid-term target remains 25/20.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


The horror continued for the miners today. With Gold breaking key support - as best seen on the bigger weekly/monthly charts, the gold miners naturally collapsed a further 5%

There is no sign of any turn to the upside, and indeed, quite the contrary in fact.

GDX looks set to hit $30 next week, along with further declines in the Gold/Silver commodity market.

If the main equity market has maxed out @ sp'1597 - as I now suspect, then the mining shares will be under added downside pressure next week.

Mid-term target for GDX looks to be somewhere in the mid to low 20s by the early autumn.

Thursday 11 April 2013

F - rising with the main market

Ford Motor (F) closed +3.3% @ $13.55, and continues to mirror the rally seen in the broader equity market. Near term trend looks bullish, but Ford is going to face strong resistance at the January high in the low 14s. The 200 day MA offers massive support in the low 11s.

F, daily


Perhaps most notable about today's closing level, was the fact it made a daily close above the highs seen in March.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, ticked higher for the fourth day, and is now in positive territory. There is no sign of a turn, and there could easily be a few more days on the upside - which in theory would sync up with a challenge of the January high.

Considering the main market is now in the sp'1590, Ford is clearly under-performing.

What is clear, a few daily closes above the January highs would be a very bullish sign for Ford, and also likely mean the broader market is just going to keep on rising into the summer.

The equity/Ford bears can't get excited unless Ford puts in a few closes under $12. Right now, that is a clear 10% or so lower.

Ford will always be one to watch.

Wednesday 10 April 2013

GDX - miners suffer as Gold slumps

Despite the continued rally in the broader market, the Gold miners saw all of yesterdays gains lost, with GDX closing -3.9% @ $34.61. With the precious metals back on the slide, GDX will remain under pressure. Near term price formation looks like a bear flag.

GDX, daily


The last five trading days have been a real choppy mess, and what we've got from it all is nothing less than a bear flag.

Another day lower, and the flag will likely be confirmed, and we'll quickly take out the previous low of $33.71

Primary target would be the big $30 level, and eventually - assuming Gold and Silver remain at least 'moderately weak' across the summer, GDX looks set for 25..or even the very low 20s.

The miners remain my favourite sector, but clearly, the price trend looks VERY weak for some months to come.

Tuesday 9 April 2013

GDX - Gold Miners continue to bounce

With the precious metals continuing to rally from their recent lows, and the main equity market showing further strength, the Gold miners ETF of GDX closed significantly higher, +3.9% @ $35.98. Near term trend looks upward, but massive resistance is at 39/40

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


The miners are indeed still battling upward - although its a bit of a choppy rally so far.

What is absolutely critical is the key declining resistance that is now in the $39/40 zone. Until GDX breaks above that level, the primary trend is STILL downward.

The outlook is essentially the same for both GLD and SLV.

Considering the bigger picture - not least the Copper weekly/monthly cycle charts, I'm guessing GDX - along with the precious metals, will NOT break above key resistance.

Further significant downside seems likely into late April and across most of May.

Monday 8 April 2013

TVIX, UVXY - new lows..again

With the indexes clawing higher into the close, the VIX was on the slide again, and those 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY broke new historic lows. However, if the indexes are indeed maxed out in the low sp'1560s, the VIX should start to surge as the week proceeds.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, keep in mind the daily VIX chart..

Near term upside for the VIX looks to be the 16/17s. It will be very difficult though to break into the 20s until we see some very considerable downside momentum, something we've just not seen at all this year.

As for TVIX/UVXY, well, the fact both put in new lows today -despite the VIX still well above its March low of 11.08, again testifies to the problems inherent in these leveraged VIX instruments.

For those who were buying at the close of today - or indeed, near the Tuesday open (assuming we open flat), these levels are probably pretty reasonable for good upside into the latter part of the week.

What will be paramount to anyone long TVIX/UVXY, is that we do NOT break above the recent sp' 1573 high.

If that is broken, then the near/mid term bearish case for the US market will need to be seriously reconsidered, if not thrown out entirely.

I'm guessing that won't be an issue though.

Friday 5 April 2013

TVIX, UVXY - teased into the weekend

The indexes opened sharply lower, with the VIX +12%, but it was yet another failure for the bears, and a tease to holders of the 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, which closed the day fractionally higher. Near term trend still looks like a floor has been put in.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


First, consider the weekly VIX...

A volatility rise across the week of 9%, but it could.- and arguably should have been at least double that. Yet the bulls are still powerful, and the market is still able to claw back most of any declines.

VIX still looks set to jump into the 16s..and make a challenge of the big 20 threshold this month, but as today showed..it won't likely be easy.

For holders of the TVIX and UVXY, as ever, keep tight stops..and unquestionably...these things should be treated like lit sticks of dynamite.

Hold them briefly...and then run.

Thursday 4 April 2013

HL - miners bounce

With the main market higher, and the USD seeing all its morning gains evaporate, the precious metals rallied from earlier lows. That no doubt greatly helped the miners. Hecla Mining (HL) closed +7%, settling @ $3.82. Primary trend remains downward though.

HL, daily, 8mth

HL, daily, 5 year


The miners remain under severe pressure from a US currency that is strong, and that keeps downward pressure on commodity prices, especially Gold and Silver.

Hecla itself remains one of the more important (and financially solvent!) Silver miners, and certainly looks like it has a very good long term future.

Yet, price trend IS generally to the downside.

If the main equity market - along with the precious metals stumble in the mid-term..and if any 'unravelling' occurs, then HL could fall all the way back to the 2009 low of $1

At that price, it would arguably be a screaming buy, just as it was at those collapse wave lows.

Wednesday 3 April 2013

GDX - another day of destruction

With the precious metals seeing further sharp declines, and the main equity market also falling, the Gold miners saw further declines. GDX closed -4.5% @ $34.25. Near term trend still looks extremely weak, and the big $30 threshold is likely to fail within the next 3-6 weeks.

GDX, daily


Suffice to say...the break - and confirmation of the bear flag, is leading to continued significant falls. Volume was very heavy today, and although some might see it as capitulation, it probably isn't a spike volume-low.

There is absolutely no sign of any turn..or levelling phase in the miners.

GDX could very easily be trading sub 30' within days - if the precious metals take out the lows from summer 2012 - which in my view..is now very probable sometime this April/May.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now negative.and there is a very viable 2-4 days lower.

Further, If the US Dollar continues to remain strong, there is little reason to expect a major multi-month ramp in the miners - and Gold & Silver, this coming summer.

Tuesday 2 April 2013

GDX - Gold miners collapsing

With the precious metals continuing to collapse, the miners are seeing a similar pattern of destruction. The Gold miners ETF - GDX, closed -4.1% @ $35.92. Near term trend is extremely weak, and GDX looks set to break <30 by the late spring.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


With Silver failing to rally, and gold now also seeing significant losses, the Gold miners are seeing pretty severe declines.

We're now back to the lows of March, and with the daily charts as they are, it looks like we'll break new lows.

Next big level for GDX is $30, which could even be hit later this month..if Silver/Gold unravel in the days ahead.

Dr Copper was right again.

On any basis, Copper was - in retrospect, the key warning of trouble.

Copper broke first...Silver is following close behind...and Gold is also now seeing big daily falls.

GDX is clearly still in a massive multi-month decline..and if the wider equity market also sees some level of correction across April/May, there is no reason to expect a rebound in either the miners or the precious metals this side of the spring.

Monday 1 April 2013

AAPL - weak, weak...WEAK !

Apple (AAPL) closed significantly lower, -3.1%, settling in the $428s. Near term trend looks very weak, and a test of the March'4 low in the $419s is now easily within range. Considering the indexes look set to fall across April/May, AAPL will likely be trading in the mid 300s by early summer.

AAPL, daily


A pretty lousy way to start the second quarter, with AAPL falling for the fourth consecutive day.

*I'm guessing the indexes could see a few days higher across Tue/Wed, but even if that is the case, the mid-term outlook on AAPL looks particularly weak.

The next big level of $400 looks likely to be breached within the next few weeks, but regardless of when...if the main market is 5-7% lower by early May, then we're surely looking at AAPL trading in the mid 300s..which is a rather bizarre thing to consider.

AAPL remains one to watch, and will be a good guide for the broader tech sector into the early summer.