Friday 29 December 2017

GDX - net yearly gains

With gold and silver climbing into year end, the miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day +0.2% at $23.24, making for a net weekly gain of 1.5%. For December, GDX saw a net gain of 4.3%, making for a significant net yearly gain of 12.0%.

GDX weekly

GDX monthly


With the precious metals rising into year end, the miners followed, with a third consecutive net weekly gain. The settling December candle is rather bullish in style, and does offer a push into the $25s within 1-3mths.There was very notable option activity today in GDX, with >59000 of the Feb'16th $25s trading.

Pete Najarian of highlighting unusual activity

Copper and oil are both indirectly suggestive that gold/silver will eventually battle upward in 2018. If correct, the miners will no doubt follow to some extent.

For bullish clarity, the mining bulls should be seeking Gold >$1400, Silver >$22s, with Copper >$3.00. The latter was achieved in August.

The more cautious will leave GDX alone until the Feb high of $25.71 is taken out. Any price action >$26.00 would then offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

For the record, my favourite gold miner remains...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Barrick ended the year on a very bullish note, with a Dec' gain of 5.0% to $14.47. Its notable that the Dec' candle is of the bullish engulfing type, and does lean to at least short term upside to the 15/16s. The cautious will wait for a break above trend, which in January will be considerably higher, around $17.30.

It could be argued price structure since summer 2016 to late 2017 is one giant bull flag. Will need to see >17.30 to provisionally confirm that, and >$23.24 to fully confirm it. If the latter was seen, natural target would be the 37/40 zone.

Friday 22 December 2017

GDX - climbing with the metals

With Gold and Silver climbing, the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX ended the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $22.89, which made for a second consecutive net weekly gain of  4.9%. Near term outlook is leaning upward into year end.

GDX weekly

GDX monthly


Last week saw a key bounce from what is core support in the low $21s. The mining bulls should be very relieved to have seen bullish follow through.

M/t outlook is mixed. For bullish clarity, we arguably need to see Gold >$1400, Silver $22s, and Copper $3.00. The latter was attained in August, and copper is one powerful indirect signal that gold/silver, and the related miners will eventually follow upward in 2018.

My most favoured miner remains Barrick Gold (ABX), which managed a daily close above the 50dma, having just recently broken the downward trend from early September.

ABX, daily

 The more cautious will wait to chase until >17.50.

Friday 15 December 2017

GDX - battling to hold support

The gold mining ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately negative note, -0.4% at $21.99, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 1.4%. Near term outlook offers chop into year end. Things only turn provisionally bullish with a break >23.00, to be decisive, the mining bulls need to exceed the Feb' high of $25.71.

GDX weekly

GDX daily


Suffice to add, a sig' net weekly gain for the miners - naturally helped via upside in gold and silver, but more broadly, the picture isn't so pretty. The miners have been cooling since September, and other than the very sig' 'fed day' gain, price action continues to lean on the weaker side.

The cautious will leave the sector well alone until at least a provisional bullish break, which is arguably GDX >$23.00. 

Alarm bells if Gold <$1200, or if GDX sees any daily closes <$21.00.

Best guess? Based on my broader bullish commodity outlook, I'm still leaning bullish.

Thursday 14 December 2017

TEVA - jumping on restructuring news

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was notable strength in Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA), which saw an intra high of $18.98, and settling +10.2% at $17.30. The stock is still within a m/t bearish trend, but that looks set to be decisively concluded in early 2018.

TEVA daily

TEVA monthly


Suffice to add, huge layoffs of around 14k, a suspended dividend, and the stock soared in pre-market by around 18%. For those working for Teva, it was a very bad day, but for the stockholders, its was a good day, and it marks the beginning of what is an overdue major restructuring.

Technically, the m/t bearish trend looks set to be broken in early 2018. I would keep in mind the key monthly 10MA, currently in the $23s, but that will be down to $20 by March/April.

I am m/t bullish TEVA. First soft target is a monthly close above the monthly 10MA, which is indeed a target that will be easier to hit with each month. Any monthly close above the 10MA will offer secondary of the 32/33s.

Wednesday 13 December 2017

BAC - post hike cooling

The fed raised rates as expected, with Bank of America (BAC) seeing some classic 'sell the news' cooling, settling -1.6% at $28.84. S/t bearish... if only for a day or two. M/t bullish, as the psy' $30 threshold is due before year end. Many now recognise the $33s are coming, as higher rates are bullish financials.

BAC daily

BAC monthly


Suffice to add... higher rates are bullish financials, and to a lesser degree, the broader equity market and US ecomomy.

BAC remains my most favoured of the US financials.

Tuesday 12 December 2017

FCX - a fifth day higher

Freeport McMoRan settled higher for a fifth consecutive day, +4.6% at $15.71.The push above $15.00 is significant, and offers the low $16s within the near term. Any monthly close >17.00, will offer the 24/25s by late summer 2018.

FCX daily

FCX monthly


Relative to the past two months of price action in copper, FCX is actually performing rather well indeed...

With a daily close of $15.71, the low $16s are easily viable within the very near term. There will likely be some considerable chop/consolidation in the low $16s.

What really matters - as seen on the monthly chart, is whether FCX can attain a decisive monthly close in the 17s. If that is achieved, its open air to the 24/25s, last seen in Dec'2014. Clearly, it will need copper to stabilise around the $3.00 threshold, and resume broadly upward.

FCX garners most of the 'copper miner' attention. However, Southern Copper (SCCO) is technically, and arguably also fundamentally, a superior company. A second alternative is Teck Resources, although that has a coal segment, which is a commodity that many want absolutely nothing to do with.

Monday 11 December 2017

GILD - mid term strong

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was notable strength in Gilead Sciences (GILD), which settled +2.2% at $75.88. The Nov' low of $70.05 marks a key higher low. M/t outlook is bullish to >90.

GILD daily

GILD monthly


Suffice to add, the recent Nov' low of $70.05, marks a key higher low. Price structure on the monthly chart is a bull flag spanning Sept-Nov'. A break into the 77s would arguably provisionally confirm it, the 86s would be decisive.

First target is the $90 threshold, back to levels from April 2016. Bullish GILD into/across 2018.  

Friday 8 December 2017

GDX - a second week lower

The gold mining ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately positive note, +0.5% at $21.68, but that still resulted in a third consecutive (if minor) net weekly decline of -3.6%. Near term outlook offers a test of big support around the $21.00 threshold.

GDX weekly

GDX daily


A second sig' net weekly decline for the miners, clearly pressured by a third consecutive net weekly decline for gold and silver.

The critical issue is whether Gold can hold the key $1200 threshold. If that is lost, it would be bode monstrously mid-term bearish for the related mining stocks.

Best guess? Silver has been broken since the summer, and the last two weeks have been rough for Gold. I'm increasingly leaning on the bearish side, not least as copper is also back under the key $3.00 threshold.

The bolder mining bulls could be long from around current levels, but to be clear, if GDX loses the $21s, and/or Gold <$1200, it would merit 'run for the exits'.

The cautious metal/mining bears would wait to chase lower on a break of GDX <21, and/or Gold <$1200.

Thursday 7 December 2017

MU - a third day higher

Whilst the main market saw moderate gains, there was very significant strength in Micron Technology (MU) which settled higher for a third day, +3.9% at $43.20. The Monday low of $39.07 is now an increasingly secure floor. First soft target is the psy' level of $50. M/t bullish to $100.

MU daily

MU monthly


Suffice to add, with an FPE in the 6s (or even 5s, depending on how you calculate it), the stock remains ludicrously priced on the low side. It is no stretch to see $100 by late 2018.

Next earnings are due Tuesday, Dec'19th in AH. I expect good numbers, and the $50 threshold is viable before the Christmas break.

Wednesday 6 December 2017

BABA - mid term super strong

Alibaba (BABA) saw the first gain in 7 trading days, settling +2.2% at $172.63. Near term outlook offers a little chop. More broadly, new historic highs (>191.75) are due in early 2018. M/t bullish to 225/50 by mid 2018.

BABA daily

BABA monthly


Little to add.

BABA has proven sig' profits, and looks fine for the mid term. November settled weak, and we're currently net lower for a second month.

A valid, if somewhat more speculative alternative is JD. 

Tuesday 5 December 2017

MU - short term floor

Whilst the main market saw a day of moderate swings, there was very significant strength in Micron Technology (MU) which settled +3.3% at $41.21. Today's net daily gain offers provisional confirmation that the Monday low of $39.04 is a s/t floor, with the stock having cooled from $49.89.

MU daily

MU monthly


Six days down... and finally a net daily gain for Micron. There has been notable buying around the psy' $40 threshold across the past 3 trading days. Effectively, the stock has declined by around 20% since the Nov'22nd high.

A floor does appear in. The cautious will now be buying, with a stop around the $39.04 low.

With a FPE in the 6s, Micron remains my most favoured stock in the entire market. Next earnings: Dec'19th in AH.

Monday 4 December 2017

DIS - a clear breakout

Whilst the main market saw a day of broad upside, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +4.7% at $110.22.The stock has achieved a clear breakout, with next soft target of the 115/118 zone. A move >120 looks probable by early spring 2018. Talk of the 140/50s by end 2018 can begin.

DIS daily

DIS monthly


Little to add from recent posts.

Technically, breakouts don't come any clearer. Today can be counted as Day'1 UP, and the Disney bulls can expect an extended bullish phase, as in months... rather than mere weeks.

Note the MACD (green bar histogram) cycle on the bigger monthly chart. At the current rate, we'll see a bullish cross in Jan' or Feb. Next earnings will be due early Feb'. If Mr Market is pleased, its possible we'll push >120 even before early spring.

Meanwhile, the buildup to Avengers: Infinity War (due April/May 2018) has already begun. The fans are naturally already hyper...

... bullish.

Friday 1 December 2017

GE - starting the month bearish

General Electric (GE) began the final month of 2017 on a bearish note, settling -2.2% at $17.88. November saw the stock settle net lower for a ninth consecutive month, and on balance, December will surely settle net lower. The Oct' close <$22, offers no major support until the $13s.

GE daily

GE monthly


Suffice to add... the horror show continues.

November was always about whether Flannery could inspire, and he failed, with Mr Market smashing the stock from $20.75 to $18.29. The Nov' low of $17.46 looks set to be taken out before year end, as there will no doubt be some degree of tax-loss selling.

yours.. bearish to the $13s.