Thursday 30 April 2020

Exceptionally strong month

The gold miner ETF of GDX ended the month on a bearish note, settling -$1.77 (5.2%) to $32.26, but that still resulted in a net April gain of +$9.22 (40.0%). The miners will be vulnerable, if the US market is smacked back lower into the summer.

GDX monthly

GDX, daily


The March spike low of $16.18 looks even more bizarre, after April printed $34.74... an effective 100% gain.

Along with gold itself, I am absolutely mid/long term bullish the gold miners. However, as we saw from mid Feb>mid March, if the main equity market gets smashed lower, the miners will also be impacted.... if briefly.

The more cautious will be side-stepping the sector until at least the sp'2600/500s, if not the mid 2300s the latter appears realistic within June/July.

Key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly

A net April gain of $14.20 (31.4%) to $59.48. having broken a new historic high of $64.65. The April candle is rather spiky. S/t over-stretched, with first support of 52/50.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

A net April gain of $7.40 (40.4%) to $25.72. The April candle is rather spiky, and threatens s/t downside. M/t bullish, with soft target of the $37s. New historic highs >50.11, will require Gold sustainably >2K.
Of the two, yours truly favours GOLD, but both are tier'1 miners.