Thursday 30 April 2015

GDX - strong monthly gains

Despite the precious metals seeing net monthly declines, the related mining stocks still managed to claw higher. The ETF of GDX settled April higher by 10.25% @ $20.11. However, the broader trend remains weak for Gold and Silver, and GDX remains highly vulnerable to breaking the Nov' low of $16.34.

GDX, monthly

GDX, weekly'3


*the outlook on the weekly chart is a 'best guess', and assumes a key floor later this year.

Suffice to say... the miners saw a sig' monthly gain, but overall, price action has been broadly stuck since last Oct/November.

My outlook is for continued weakness in the precious metals (not least if the USD floors in the early summer in the DXY 93/89 zone.. and then sees renewed upside >DXY 100), with Gold very likely headed to the giant $1000 threshold.

If that is correct, GDX could easily be trading in the low teens.. even 12/10 in the early Autumn... at which point, it will probably be a key multi-year floor.

Wednesday 29 April 2015

TWTR - post earnings collapse

Whilst the broader market closed only moderately lower, there was notable continued powerful weakness in Twitter (TWTR), which settled lower by -8.9% @ $38.49. Next support is the Dec' low of $34.62, along with price cluster support across the 36/35 zone.

TWTR, daily


*notable huge sell side volume, as the stock remains in effective collapse mode.

Without going over the crazy events in the closing hour of Tuesday afternoon, the market seems more upset with the early leak/release of earnings.. than the actual earnings themselves.

From a pure price perspective, there really isn't any support until the 36/34 price cluster zone.. where the Dec' low is lurking.

Best guess... TWTR will floor in the 36/34 zone... and remain choppy for much of May. The big $50 threshold now looks an extremely long way up... and looks out of range until at least next earnings in mid July.

*as things are, I have ZERO interest in getting involved until a new floor is secured... and that will likely take some weeks.

Tuesday 28 April 2015

AAPL - declines on superb earnings

Whilst stocks like Amazon (AMZN) can soar 15% on a quarterly loss, Apple (AAPL) saw a net daily decline of -1.6% @ $130.52 (intra low 129.57).. after earnings beat on just about every metric. Despite the markets reaction, the long term outlook remains extremely bullish.. into the $200s.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Suffice to say... the polar opposite of the grossly over-priced/hyped AMZN.

It is truly incredible to see a company that raises the dividend, beats on EPS/revenue, and yet the stock opens lower... all against the recent results of AMZN.. in which the stock soared.

... without question, it remains a deeply twisted market which will often grossly mis-price a given company.

In the long term though.. AMZN.. .and AAPL will be duly priced as they deserve to be.

Monday 27 April 2015

DIS - broadly strong

With the sp'500 breaking a new historic high in the early morning, Disney (DIS) matched, with a new high of $111.66, but settling +0.6% @ $110.16. The broader trend remains bullish, with the 120s viable in early May at next earnings.

DIS, daily

DIS, monthly


*daily closing candle was a black-fail, but.. I just can't take it seriously. Next earnings will surely be fine, and outlook should be very positive for the summer.

Little to add.

Superb company.. Disney is one of my top 3 Dow stocks, and looks set for broader upside into year end.

Friday 24 April 2015

TVIX, UVXY - a market with no concerns

As equity indexes broke new highs, the VIX broke a new cycle low of 12.12 - the lowest level since early December. The 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of a significant -11.0% and -12.3% respecitvely. This remains a market that has no concern about anything.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -11.1%

Clearly, VIX is now extremely low, but any look at the weekly.. or even monthly cycle, would be a reminder that the VIX can remain low for many weeks... if not months.

The next best opportunity for increased market volatility looks to be the FOMC of June 17th', when some will be moderately concerned that the US Fed will raise rates by 25bps.

As for TVIX/UVXY... the problem of statistical decay remains... and currently those still resolutely holding long are bring ground to dust.

*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX for some months.

Thursday 23 April 2015

FB, TWTR - mixed day for social media

Whilst the broader market battled higher, it was a mixed day for social media stocks. Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) settled lower by -2.6% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is somewhat choppy, but mid/long term outlooks are bullish, for what remain two of the most popular of the momo stocks.

FB, daily

TWTR, daily


*I exited TWTR-long at the open... will consider a re-entry next week, ahead of Tuesday earnings.

So.. FB EPS were 42 cents vs 40 exp., but revenue fractionally missed. Overall, the numbers were fine, and there is little reason why FB won't soon break into the low $90s.. at which point it should become obvious - even to the mainstream, that it is likely headed for the giant $100 threshold.

As for TWTR, with earnings next Tuesday, things are very much in flux. There is plenty of chatter that TWTR has viable earnings upside of as much as 20%. Whilst that might seem out of range, it would not be the first time its seen such a reaction.

There is a clear price gap zone of $57/62. Rising trend/channel is offering $56 next Wed' morning.

The all time high for TWTR is $74.73 - from Dec'2013. Clearly, that is a long way up... roughly 50% from current levels. It will take continued broader market upside.. into the sp'2200/300s for TWTR to break into the mid 70s this summer/autumn.

However... barring some bizarre corporate failure, TWTR looks set to jump higher next week.

Wednesday 22 April 2015

TSLA - the down trend has ended

Whilst the broader market saw moderate gains, there was notable strength in Tesla (TSLA), which settled higher by a very significant 4.8% @ $219.52. Even more important though, the down trend/resistance from Sept'2014 has been decisively broken... and near/mid term outlook is now bullish.

TSLA, daily


Suffice to say... a clear break of the down trend... having built a bull flag across the previous ten trading days.

Upside targets...

Initial.. 200dma @ $226
Primary $250
Secondary: Sept' high of $291... although this looks out of range for some months.

Tuesday 21 April 2015

ANR, BTU - the destruction continues

Whilst the broader market saw minor weak chop, it was just another lousy day for the coal mining stocks. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) closed lower by -5.7% and -3.9% respectively. The long term outlook for the sector remains bearish.

BTU, daily

ANR, daily


With the US 'war on coal' continuing, the coal sector stocks are still broadly falling.

There is simply nothing bullish in any of the coal miners, not least as commodities remain surpressed by a strong US Dollar.

*I do not expect Arch Coal (ACI), ANR, or Walter Energy (WLT) to remain in their current form.. given another 6-18 months.

However, I do believe BTU will be a survivor, along with Consol (CNX). Coal for energy use will decline, but coal still has high importance for many industrial purposes.

Monday 20 April 2015

STX - breaking out

With the broader equity market starting the week with somewhat significant gains, there was notable strength in Seagate (STX), settling +3.0% @ $59.15. The daily close just under the 200dma is rather significant, and bodes for 62/64 before end month.

STX, daily


Suffice to say, the second consecutive significant net daily gain.

Earnings were arguably 'reasonable' recently, and with a continuing share buy back, STX looks set to take out the Dec' high of $68.78.

*I am strongly bullish STX.. not least since I greatly favour their desktop drives. The storage industry continues to shift from HDD to SSD. STX is part of that shift, and should be fine across the long term.

Friday 17 April 2015

GE - generally fine

Whilst the broader market saw significant weakness to end the week, there was notable early strength in General Electric (GE).. after earnings came in fine. GE settled -0.2% @ $27.23. Near term outlook is for renewed upside into May. First upside target is the $30/32 zone.

GE, daily

GE, monthly


First.. some details on Q1 earnings...

EPS (pre items*) 31 cents (33 cents previous year) vs market exp' of 30. Rev' was a major miss, $29.4bn vs market exp' of $34bn.

So... roughly $1.25 EPS a year, giving a PE of around 21... somewhat above the market average. Regardless, with a monstrous stock buy back of $50bn, along with the planned asset disposal of GE Capital (should raise around $25bn), the long term outlook appears fine.

*GE wrote off $16bn from GE capital.. so.. technically, a Q1 loss of $13.6bn... $1.35 a share. As ever.. the finer details are always important to consider.

Long term upside

GE looks set for very significant upside across the next few years. The disposal of GE capital (which almost took the company into bankruptcy in the 2008/09 crash) is a good thing.

The stock buy back will no doubt help to largely negate all moderate down cycles for the next THREE years.

*I am very bullish on GE (and be default, the Dow), the Aug' 2000 high of $41.42 looks a viable target by mid/late 2017.

Thursday 16 April 2015

NFLX - hyper gains on lousy earnings

Whilst the main market saw a day of minor chop, there was notable hyper strength in Netflix (NFLX), settling higher by an extreme 18.3% @ $562. Near term outlook offers a possible consolidation, but regardless of any cooling phase... the broader outlook is very bullish.

NFLX, daily


*I will refrain from going over report the recent earnings report.

Suffice to say, a major earnings miss.. yet the market simply doesn't care.. as worldwide subscriber numbers continue to increase.

Personally, I'm bemused (but not surprised) at the market reaction.

Where next?

Clearly, market doesn't much care that the company is not making much money on each subscriber.. and is seemingly now intent on driving this momo stock to $1000.

*I've never traded NFLX.. and have ZERO intention to... but it is one to be aware of.

Wednesday 15 April 2015

INTC - reasonable earnings

With the US market closing higher for a second day, there was notable strength in Intel (INTC), as earnings came in 'reasonable', settling +4.3% @ $32.84 (intra high 32.99) With the break above declining trend/resistance, there is probable upside to at least $35.. if not the low $40s by June/July.

INTC, daily

INTC, monthly


*I was long INTC from Monday, into early Wed'.. and have exited. It was a pure earnings trade..hence the exit.. despite my mid/long term bullish outlook.

Looking at the giant monthly cycle, INTC saw a key breakout last summer.. when it held above $25... a key level that has spanned across two decades.

There looks to be near term upside to at least $35, but quite possibly the low $40s.

If the market just keeps climbing into year end.. with Nasdaq comp in the 6000s, then INTC in the 45/50 zone would be a very valid target.

Tuesday 14 April 2015

RIG, SDRL - battling higher

Whilst the broader market closed with minor gains, there was notable strength in energy stocks. The oil/gas drillers of Transocean (RIG) and Seadrill (SDRL) settled higher by a very significant 4.9% and 7.6% respectively. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, back to the levels from last November.

RIG, daily

SDRL, daily


With WTIC Oil prices continuing to climb from the March low of $42.41, energy stocks are seeing some relief after a horrific down wave since last summer.

Both RIG and SDRL look set for continued gains into the summer... along with Oil.. which itself should get stuck somewhere in the $67/75 zone.

To be clear.. Oil is still seeing an over-supply, and after a multi-month bounce, I see renewed downside.. probably into 2016.

*I am long term bullish on RIG and SDRL, but for the moment, I have no interest in going long at these prices.. or at this particular time.

Monday 13 April 2015

NFLX - Bullish Daredevil

Whilst the broader market saw some moderate weakness into the close, there was notable strength in Netflix (NFLX), which settled higher by a significant 4.4% @ $474. Next upside target is the Sept' high of $489, and then the giant $500 threshold.

NFLX, daily


Suffice to say NFLX is making a serious play for new historic highs... $500 looks a very valid outlook for the post earnings reaction this Thursday morning.

NFLX is seeing some extremely positive reviews for its first Marvel (owned by Disney) series 'Daredevil'. Another three series are due across the next year or so.. and all are part of the grander 'Marvel universe'.

I am bullish in the long term for NFLX.. not least with recent 'net neutrality' issues apparently resolved in the US.

*NFLX earnings are due at the Wed' close.

.. as for Daredevil, great series... highly recommended...

Friday 10 April 2015

TVIX, UVXY - just another horrible week

With equities significantly net higher for the week, the VIX continued to cool. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY settled lower by a rather dreadful -22.1% and -23.0% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish for equities.. and by default... for the VIX to remain very subdued.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -14.2%

Little to add..

For TVIX/UVXY it was indeed a pretty horrific week, with massive net weekly declines.

Best guess... equities to rise into May.. which would equate to VIX remaining very low.. within the 15/11 zone. If sp'2150/75.. perhaps we'll even see VIX 9s.. which might make for an interesting capitulation low.

*I remain somewhat bemused that TVIX, now at the lowly price of $1.27 has not yet seen a reverse split.. on the order of 1 for 20. Such a price adjustment is well overdue.

Thursday 9 April 2015

AA - earnings just not good enough

Whilst the main market settled moderately higher, there was notable weakness in Alcoa (AA), which settled -3.4% @ $13.20. Price structure is bearish in the near and mid term. With a clear failure to re-take the old floor in the $14s, there remains viable downside to the $10/9 zone by late summer.

AA, daily

AA, monthly


Q4 earnings were certainly reasonable, earnings were a few cents above market expectations, but AA missed on revenue.

To be clear...

I am long term bullish for AA, but there appears to be viable downside to the big $10 threshold this summer.. perhaps the 9s.. briefly. At that level, I'll be a buyer...on a 18/24 month basis... into 2017.

Target upside from 10/9 would be $25/26.. but that is clearly at least a full year away (unless someone wants to launch a takeover*).

*current market Cap is around $16bn... any takeover would clearly need to be in the $20/25bn zone.. at minimum.

Wednesday 8 April 2015

USO - Oil back on the slide

Whilst the broader market saw further chop, there was very significant weakness in Oil, The ETF of USO, settled lower by -5.2% @ $18.06. Despite the net daily decline, the mid term trend is offering a turn, with a floor of 15.61 (with WTIC @ $42.41), first upside target is $60.. which would likely equate to USO in the 21/22s.

USO, 60min

USO, weekly'2


I was expecting some significant weakness today, as the API/EIA oil reports both gave another huge weekly Oil surplus.

USO is already close to hitting the price gap zone of 17.70/50s. A weekly close <$17.50 would seem unlikely.

*I will consider going long Oil (via USO) in the $17.70/50s this Thurs/Friday.

Tuesday 7 April 2015

GDX - rolling lower again

Despite some notable gains in precious metals across the last few weeks, the precious metal miners remain under the 2013 floor. The miner ETF of GDX settled -2.5% @ $19.21. The Nov' low of $16.34 looks likely to be taken out in the months ahead.. as Gold eventually breaks lower to the giant $1000 threshold.

GDX, daily

GDX, weekly


Little to add.

Despite all the hysteria amongst the Gold bugs, the precious metals remain relatively close to multi-year lows - not least as King Dollar remains King in paper land.

Best guess... miners to floor in late summer... with Gold flooring around the $1000 threshold... if not 900/875. In any case.. the bulk of the declines (from 2011) are complete.

Monday 6 April 2015

RIG, SDRL - drillers soar on Oil gains

With WTIC Oil seeing a net daily gain of around 5% (into the $51s), energy stocks saw powerful gains. The oil/gas drillers of Transocean (RIG), and Seadrill (SDRL), settled higher by 10.2% and 6.7% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, but broader trend looks highly vulnerable into the summer.

RIG, daily

SDRL, daily


Whilst Oil remains very volatile, there is not yet a decisive floor... certainly, WTIC in the $35/30 zone looks viable later this year.

With that under consideration, the oil/gas drillers still look vulnerable, despite offering a multi-week/month floor.

*For now.. despite being a fan of both companies, I have ZERO interest in getting involved at this time.. and will merely keep an eye on both into the summer.

Thursday 2 April 2015

TVIX, UVXY - volatility remains subdued

Volatility remains relatively subdued, with the VIX stuck in the mid/low teens. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -5.2% and -5.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers a break under the sp'2039 low, which might see VIX 'briefly' back above the key 20 threshold.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a minor net weekly decline of -2.6%

Despite relatively significant swings in the US equity market across the last few months, the VIX has remained very subdued. VIX is generally unable to break/hold much above the key 20 threshold.

As for TVIX/UVXY, it was just another week of moderate decay. The Wednesday spike on UVXY was due to algo-bot problems.

Regardless... as ever... holding such leveraged instruments across multiple weeks, usually ends badly.

Wednesday 1 April 2015

F - resuming the slide

With the main market weak for a second day, Ford resumed the slide, settling -1.4% @ $15.92. Near term outlook is bearish, with the 200dma (15.72), set to be taken out... with viable downside to the 15.50/25 zone next week.

F, daily

F, monthly


*the bigger $18 threshold looks out of range for some months.. not least if the broader market has 'issues' this summer.

Little to add.

Ford looks set for continued weakness in the immediate term. Eventually.. we'll see a monthly close in the $18s.. at which point, Ford looks set for the mid 20s.