Saturday 29 June 2024

Miners cooling back

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net June decline of -$1.37 (3.9%) to $33.93, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly 

Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully lower, mostly pressured by silver.
A more lousy performance, relative to the main market.
I would note the 10MA at $30.41, which was still settled above.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM) 

 


Newmont saw a net June gain of +$0.18 (0.4%) to $41.87. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.76, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is increasingly positive. Soft target are the $47s, with secondary of the $49s/psy'50.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)  

Barrick settled -41cents (0.4%) to $16.68. Momentum is flat-lining, if remaining fractionally positive. Soft target are the $19s. 
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First Majestic Silver (AG) 

 


A net June decline of -$1.24 (17.3%) to $5.92, on lower vol' of 99M. Momentum ticked back lower, if remaining marginally positive. Big target are the $9s, and then the $18s. 

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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

 


A net June decline of -$2.12 (9.6%) to $19.88, on lower vol' of 77M. Momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately positive side. Big target are the $28s
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Of the four, yours truly favours NEM, which has less of a copper component than Barrick.
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Friday 31 May 2024

Silver miners leading

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net May gain of +$2.24 (6.7%) to $35.37, helped by higher gold/silver, and a positive equity market.

GDX, monthly 

Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully higher for a third consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $29.91, which was settled above. The 2023 high of $35.67, was briefly/marginally exceeded... with a May high of $37.47.
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Four of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM)

Newmont saw a net May gain of +$1.31 (3.2%) to $41.95. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.61, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and has turned positive. Soft target $47s, secondary 49/psy'50.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD)

 


Barrick settled +54cents (0.3%) to $17.08. Momentum ticked upward, and remains fractionally positive. Soft target are the $19s. 
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First Majestic Silver (AG)

 


A net May gain of +$0.50 (7.5%) to $7.16, on high vol' of 176M. Momentum ticked upward, settling marginally positive. Big target are the $9s, and then the $18s. 

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Pan American Silver (PAAS)

 


A net May gain of +$3.66 (20.0%) to $22.02, on very high vol' of 114M. Momentum ticked upward, settling moderately positive. Big target are the $28s
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Of the four, yours truly favours AG.
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Tuesday 30 April 2024

Miners digging upward

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net April gain of +$1.51 (4.8%) to $33.13, helped by higher gold/silver.

GDX, monthly 

 


 Summary

The collective of miners were powerfully higher, very resilient to the broadly lower equity market. I would note the 10MA at $29.46, which was settled above. The 2023 high of $35.67, was briefly/marginally exceeded... with an April high of $35.74.

As ever, any main market downside would be a restraint to the mining stocks, as we saw into end month.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net April gain of +$4.80 (13.4%) to $40.64, on very high vol' of 327M. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.58, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, due to turn positive in May. Soft target $43s, secondary 49/psy'50.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


Settling precisely flat for April, at $16.64, on very high vol' of 665M. Momentum ticked upward, settling fractionally positive. Having printed $18.95 in April, next target are the $19s. 
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net April gain of +$0.79 (13.4%) to $6.67, on very high vol' of 269M. Momentum ticked upward, settling fractionally positive. Big target are the $9.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end April 2024... I hold a stock-option position in GOLD

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Thursday 28 March 2024

Miners playing catchup

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net March gain of +$5.26 (19.9%) to $31.62, helped by higher gold/silver.

GDX, monthly


 Summary

The collective of miners were very powerfully higher, out-performing the broader equity market. I would note the 10MA at $29.11, which was settled above.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market remains m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net March gain of +$4.83 (15.6%) to $35.84. I would note the monthly 10MA at $37.57, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, due to turn positive in May. Soft target $37s, secondary $43s. 
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net March gain of +$1.98 (13.5%) to $16.64. Momentum ticked back upward, turning fractionally positive. Soft target $17s, secondary $19s. 
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly


A net March gain of +$1.39 (31.1%) to $5.88. Momentum ticked back upward, turning fractionally positive. Big target are the $9s

--
Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end March 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM and GOLD

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Thursday 29 February 2024

Miners under-performing

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net February decline of -$1.58 (5.6%) to $26.36, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners were lower for a second consecutive month, once again under-performing the broader equity market. I would note the 10MA at $28.99, which was again settled beneath.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
--

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net February decline of -$3.26 (9.4%) to $31.25. I would note the monthly 10MA at $38.33, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked lower for a second month, and is on the moderately low side.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net February decline of -$0.83 (5.4%) to $14.66. Momentum ticked lower, turning fractionally negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net February decline of -$0.13 (2.8%) to $4.49. The February print of $4.17 is the lowest since March 2020... back when SPX was flooring at 2191.

--
Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end February 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM, GOLD, AG

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Thursday 1 February 2024

Miners dig down

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net January decline of -$3.07 (9.9%) to $27.94, pressured by lower gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

 


Summary

The collective of miners began the year on a rough note. I would note the 10MA at $29.66, which was settled beneath.

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$26.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
--

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net January decline of -$6.88 (16.6%) to $34.51. I would note the monthly 10MA at $39.80, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked back lower, but still looks prone to turning positive, if no earlier than March.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 


A net January decline of -$2.49 (13.8%) to $15.60. Momentum ticked lower, if remaining fractionally positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 


A net January decline of -$1.53 (24.9%) to $4.62. I would note the January settlement is back below the 10MA, with monthly momentum fractionally negative. The silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end January 2024... I hold a stock position in NEM, GOLD, AG

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