Thursday 31 July 2014

GDX - miners having continued problems

With the main market significantly lower, and precious metals also especially weak, the miners had a rough end to the month. The ETF of GDX settled -2.4% @ $25.84. Near term outlook is bearish, not least if metal prices continue to slide.

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


*it is notable that GDX saw monthly declines of -2.3%.

So... the miners are facing not only a weak broad equity market (at least for the past 5 trading days), but metals are also looking highly vulnerable (see Gold/Silver page).

I remain resigned to Gold eventually falling to test the giant $1000 threshold. If that is the case, then the miners have a long way to fall from here.

Wednesday 30 July 2014

TWTR - a significant way higher to climb

With better than expected earnings, TWTR jumped a rather extreme 21% at the open, settling +19.9% @ $46.20. Near term outlook is bullish into the low $50s. TWTR looks set to battle higher in late summer to the 58/60 zone.

TWTR, daily


*it is notable that in Tuesday AH trading, TWTR was trading in the $51s.

Suffice to say... TWTR is one of the top 3 hysteria/momo stocks, and having pleased Mr Market, looks set for much higher levels across the next few months.

The daily candle - a black-fail is somewhat bearish, but still.. a 19% gain negates any kind of bearish outlook in the immediate term.

Tuesday 29 July 2014

ANR, BTU - coal miners trying to breakout

Whilst the broader market saw some moderate price chop, there was noticeable strength in the coal miners. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) closed with very significant gains of 9.9% and 2.7% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish.

ANR, daily

BTU, daily


Suffice to say...interesting daily gains, but.. the multi-year trends remain extremely bearish.

*I will only consider picking up a few of the miners after the next multi-month down wave, which will probably not be until next year.

Monday 28 July 2014

AAPL - continuing higher

Whilst the broader market saw some choppy weakness for much of the day, Apple (AAPL) was particularly resilient, and settled higher by 1.4% @ $99.02. The big $100 threshold looks likely within the next day or two, with further upside to the $110s into late summer.

AAPL, daily


Suffice to say, AAPL remains a particularly strong stock...the $100 threshold will no doubt be hit this week, and there will probably be some significant follow through to the $110s by Sept/October.

Relative to the main market, AAPL remains bizarrely valued.

*It remains important to keep in mind that AAPL has a very high probability of being added to the Dow later this year... which would lead to increased underlying upward pressure.

Friday 25 July 2014

AMZN - smacked lower on lousy earnings

Amazon (AMZN) was smacked a very significant -12% lower in the early morning, after EPS of -27 cents, verses an expected -15. AMZN settled moderately above the lows, -9.5% @ $324. The Friday daily candle is suggestive of a recovery early next week.

AMZN, daily

AMZN, weekly


Without question, AMZN saw truly lousy earnings for Q2, even worse than the cheer leaders were hoping for, as if an expected loss of -15 cents would have been 'good'.

AMZN remains one of the most bizarrely valued companies in the entire US market. AMZN is one of the most badly run multi-national corporates out there. How can you have global sales of $70/80bn, and still fail to turn a profit? Capitalism.. and retail business.... at its worse.

Daily reversal

In terms of price, AMZN did close the day with a pretty clear reversal (hollow red) candle, which is suggestive of upside next week. However, there will now be stiff resistance in the 350/360 zone.

Even if the market can power into the sp'2100s later this year/early 2015, AMZN will face serious problems in re-taking the $400s.. which are now a major ceiling.

*I would never trade the stock, even though I think it is over-valued by a factor of TEN. Indeed, I've been on the 'divide by ten' train with AMZN since I started this blog in spring 2012.

At some point the delusion will break, but for now, this is not likely the 'grand top', not least if the broader market is going to break new highs.

Thursday 24 July 2014

FCX, TCK - mixed miners

Whilst the broader market saw some mixed chop, the miners were similarly mixed. Freeport McMoran (FCX), slipped -2.7%, whilst TCK jumped 1.2%. Near term outlook is choppy, but mid term outlook is bullish.

FCX, daily

TCK, daily


FCX was downgraded today by BoA/Meryl L.

TCK jumped on earnings.

Suffice to say, I am a big fan of both companies...whose longer term outlook appears secure.

If you consider that commodity prices are likely to push higher from current levels - along with a broadly rising equity market, then these two miners are rather attractive at these levels.

Upside targets...

FCX, $50 - back to the high from early 2011.
TCK, $30/35 zone.....  

Both targets look very viable by spring 2015.

Wednesday 23 July 2014

AAPL - good earnings, headed into the $100s

With unquestionably good earnings, Apple (AAPL) managed sig' gains, settling +2.6% @ $97.20. The stock is up a powerful 30% since mid April, and looks headed for the big psy' level of $100. At the current rate, AAPL will be in the 110/115 zone by late Oct.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


Without question, AAPL earnings were fine, and even Mr Market decided that was the case across Wednesday trading.

As many recognise, once a stock hits $90, it almost always keeps on pushing higher to the $100 threshold...and somewhat over.

Relative to the main market... AAPL is still 'cheap', and if sp'2100s later this year, then AAPL should be comfortably holding above $100..if not somewhat higher in the $110s.

Tuesday 22 July 2014

NFLX - knocked lower on reasonable earnings

Despite the main market building gains across the morning, Netflix (NFLX) was notably weak, despite what were very reasonable earnings. NFLX settled a rather significant -4.6% @ $431. There looks to be very strong support in the $400s in August.

NFLX, daily


First, to be clear, NFLX is one of the last stocks I would be getting involved in. Yes, it is profitable, and has a good customer base. Yet, it is one of the hysteria/momo stocks, and I steer well clear of those.

Earnings were unquestionably reasonable, but not surprisingly Mr Market has used it as a 'sell the news' event.

NFLX will no doubt find support in the immediate term at the 50 day...or worse case... in early August..the 200 day MA. A break under the $400 threshold looks somewhat unlikely.. not least since the sp'500 has a fair chance of breaking the giant 2000 level within the near term.

If you believe in the sp'2100s later this year/early 2015, then NFLX has a high probability of battling to the big $500 level.

Monday 21 July 2014

ANR, BTU - just another stinky day

Whilst the broader market saw moderate weak chop, there was particular weakness in the coal sector. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) settled lower by a significant -2.9% and -2.4% respectively. Outlook remains bearish.

ANR, daily

BTU, daily


Suffice to say, the broader down trend continues, whilst the main market is still broadly headed higher.

With the US Govt' still on a 'we hate coal' policy framework, the miners are facing huge resistance.

I remain concerned that ANR will not survive in the longer term, although the lower the price goes... a hostile takeover becomes an increasing possibility.

*I have no positions in any of the miners, and would only consider getting involved after the main market has seen a multi-month down wave - which itself does not seem likely until next year.

Friday 18 July 2014

TVIX, UVXY - a very mixed week

With the VIX swinging from a low of 10.59 to 15.38, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw sig' gains. Yet, the week ended badly, with TVIX and UVXY seeing net daily declines of -12.0% and -13.1% respectively.

TVIX, daily



*first, an update on the VIX weekly chart

We have a rather bizarre spike for this weeks candle. There is low probability that the 17/18s can still be hit next week. More likely, VIX will melt back into the 10s.. if not the 9s..when we see sp' break into the 2000s.

Across the week, TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly losses of -3.1% and -3.9% respectively. Certainly, from a day trading perspective, they remain interesting vehicles, but held across multiple weeks - whilst the VIX remains relatively low... they are very problematic in terms of the incessant decay issue.

My bigger outlook remains the sp'2100s...whether late this year or early 2015. On any basis, I have zero interest in being long the VIX for some months to come.

Thursday 17 July 2014

DAL, UAL - airlines take a dive

With the broader market seeing significant declines after news of a downed Malaysia jet, it was no surprise to see particular weakness in the airline sector. Delta (DAL) and United Continental (UAL) both settled lower by -3.4%. Broader outlook remains bullish.

DAL, daily

UAL, daily


Suffice to say, with the main market rocked by the loss of a Malaysia passenger jet, the air line stocks were naturally especially hard hit.

However, the broader upward trends remain firmly intact - especially for the more stable Delta, and much higher levels are viable later this summer.

Wednesday 16 July 2014

RIG - makes a break to the upside

Whilst the main market saw moderate gains, there was notable strength in the Oil/Gas drillers. Transocean (RIG), settled higher by a rather significant 1.9% @ $44.45.  We have a clear break above a multi-week bull flag, next upside target zone is $48/50.

RIG, daily

RIG, weekly


RIG remains another of my favourite companies.

For the regular readers of my main page, I've been noting RIG again lately, after what was a pretty clear large bull flag.

Today's jump higher breaks.. and confirms the flag.. and we're now on the way to the upper 40s.

Superb company, and a few years out.. I'd expect RIG to be in the $125/150 zone.

Tuesday 15 July 2014

DAL - gains on a down day

Whilst the US equity indexes saw some weakness in the late morning, there was notable resilience in the airlines. Delta Air lines (DAL) closed higher by a significant 1.8% @ $38.04. A break over $39 will open up the mid/upper 40s by September.

DAL, daily


Little to add from recent posts on Delta (same applies for AAL, and UAL).

Broader trend remains to the upside, and if you believe that the sp'2100s are likely later this year/early 2015, then the airlines should continue to rally.

Further, so long as Oil can remain under the rather critical $110 threshold, there should be no concerns about fuel costs.

Monday 14 July 2014

DRYS - set to break higher

With the US indexes starting the week on a positive note, Dry Ships (DRYS) was part of the party.. settling higher by 1.3% @ $3.02. Price structure is offering significant upside across the next few months, first upside target is the $4 level, last seen in early March.

DRYS, daily

DRYS, weekly


As I was going through my individual stock charts today, DRYS stood out in particular.

DRYS has been beaten down since the spring, having hit a high of $4.37 (March 6th), and then grinding lower.. all the way to $2.78 (April 30'th).

Most notable, we have now have the second higher lower, and the big issue is can DRYS break declining resistance/trend.. which is currently around $3.40.

Watching for increase attention

If DRYS can break to $3.50 - which would be a decisive break, then I have little doubt a LOT of people will start giving DRYS some serious attention.

As ever, DRYS is highly reactive to the BDI, and that has effectively collapsed since the start of the year.

BDI, monthly


If the BDI can claw back over 1000 this July/August, then DRYS has a fair chance of breaking to the 3.40/50s....

...and if that occurs, then I'd guess there is relatively easy upside to the $4 threshold. Whether DRYS can break last Decembers key high of $5.00.. that is the really intriguing question.

If you believe the market is headed to the sp'2100s later this year, then DRYS will be one to chase higher after it confirms a breakout.

*I have no position, but would consider chasing higher from the $3.50s in late July/early August.

Friday 11 July 2014

AMZN - ending the week strongly

Whilst the main market saw minor upside chop to end the week, there was notable strength in Amazon (AMZN, which settled higher by a very significant 5.6% @ $346. Near term outlook is bullish, and a break above the 200 day MA looks likely next week.

AMZN, daily

AMZN, weekly


So.. a strong end to the week for the world's largest online retailer.

Certainly, AMZN has seen a very strong recovery from the May low of $284.

If AMZN can break the 200 dma next week - which now looks a given, then the 370/380s will be viable by next earnings.

*I've never traded the stock, and probably never will, not least because of AMZN's bizarrely low profit margins.

Thursday 10 July 2014

UAL - nuclear engines engaged

Whilst the broader market opened sharply lower, United Continental (UAL) was already higher in pre-market by 4-5%. UAL built gains across the day, settling higher by a very powerful 12.7% @ $45.18. The big $50 threshold looks a relatively easy target.

UAL, daily


It was the third consecutive daily gain for UAL, and today was a truly powerful move to the upside.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle has now turned positive, and there is very viable upside across the entirety of next week.

Whether UAL hits $50 this month, August..or not until Sept' should not make much difference to those on the long side. The stock has made a secure floor in the $36s, and is now over 20% higher in just 3 trading days.


re: DAL and AA.

I expect both Delta and American Airlines to see somewhat similar gains in the coming weeks, although UAL remains the more 'dynamic/volatile' stock.

Wednesday 9 July 2014

FB, TWTR - momo stocks on the rise

With US equities seemingly floored after a mere two day retrace, the momo stocks had opportunity to climb. Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) settled higher by 3.5% and 1.7% respectively. Mid term outlook is bullish.

FB, daily

TWTR, daily


There is little to note on these two social media monsters.

Both look set to climb into earnings. Indeed, so long as earnings come in 'reasonable', they should rally for some months.

*TWTR looks vulnerable to a violent snap higher at next earnings.. to the $50 threshold.

As things are, I don't normally trade the momo stocks, and I will likely not get involved.

Tuesday 8 July 2014

DAL, UAL - reversals for the airlines

Whilst the main market saw further weakness, the airline stocks similarly opened lower, but saw very sharp reversals in the morning. Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Continental (UAL) closed significantly above their opening lows, settling -1.2% and +2.4% respectively.

DAL, daily

UAL, daily


*it is notable that the transports index only closed lower today by -0.1%.. and is indicative of the even stronger reversal in many of the airline stocks.

As ever, UAL is more the volatile stock, and the closing daily candle was a pretty bullish one. Even though DAL closed net lower on the day, it was still a classic hollow red reversal candle.

*if you agree that the sp'2100s are viable later this year/early 2015, then both DAL and UAL look set for the big $50 level. That will of course require Oil prices to remain 'reasonable'.. arguably no higher than $120.

Monday 7 July 2014

FCX - building gains on a down day

Whilst the main equity market was moderately weak, Freeport McMoran (FCX) built further gains, settling +0.4% @ $38.67. Near term outlook is bullish, and there looks to be upside to the big $50 level, if sp'2100s.

FCX, daily

FCX, weekly


Suffice to say, FCX remains one of my favourite stocks of the entire market (not just of the mining sector), and the recent breakout is indeed pretty important.

There looks to be very viable upside to the big $50 level - last seen in spring 2011. As ever, price action will be very dependent on copper prices, but Copper is now pulling away from the $3 threshold, and looks set for the upper $3s by year end/early 2015.

If you consider that the sp'2100s are now likely, FCX will surely push higher with the broader market.

Thursday 3 July 2014

TVIX, UVXY - the horror of decay continues

With US equities seeing yet another week of gains, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -11.8% and -11.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for more of the same, not least whilst VIX is unable to even spike into the low teens.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first an update on the VIX, which saw net weekly declines of  -8.3%.


Suffice to say...the 2x lev' instruments remain in decay mode.

*TVIX is due a reverse split (not announced yet), probably on the order of 1 for 10..or even 1 for 20.


No interest in being long VIX

With equity price action as it is, I have zero interest in going long the VIX. Even if the market slips a few percent in late July (weak GDP?), I no longer see the VIX breaking much above 15/17.

In the scheme of things, there seems little point in long VIX trades (not least for the options traders) for some months to come.

Wednesday 2 July 2014

DAL, UAL - airlines in a brief spell of turbulance

Whilst the main market was effectively flat across the day, there was notable weakness in the airline stocks. Delta Airlines (DAL) and United Continental (UAL) saw very significant declines of -5.2% and -7.1% respectively  Immediate outlook is bearish, before the primary uptrend resumes.

DAL, daily

UAL, daily


*I don't chart Delta, but I thought I'd include it anyway, since it was largely the cause of today's sector weakness

Delta marginally missed on June flight data, and Mr Market was arguably pretty harsh with today's smack down.

Thursday looks set to see at least a little further downside. Perhaps next week will also be a little weak, but the broader trend for the airlines will surely resume to the upside into August.

Tuesday 1 July 2014

NFLX - cruising to the big $500

Whilst the broader market saw significant gains, there were even more impressive gains for Netflix (NFLX), which gained 7.4%, settling @ $473. There looks to be relatively easy upside into earnings season, with the big $500 threshold set to be hit.

NFLX, daily


Suffice to say, the equity bears can complain NFLX is over-valued (along with the rest of the market), yet the company is making reasonable profits, and looks set to expand its customer reach for at least another year or two.

NFLX looks bullish to the big $500 level, which seems viable this month..or mid August at the latest.