GDX - a fourth bad year for mining stocks

With precious metals seeing a fourth year of broad weakness, the related mining stocks were naturally pulled lower. The ETF of GDX saw a net yearly decline of -$4.50 (-24.7%) @ $13.72. Outlook remains bearish as the metals show no sign of a floor, and with the USD set to sustainably trade above the DXY 100 threshold.


GDX, monthly

GDX, daily

Summary

Suffice to add... the spike high of $64.51 in Sept'2011 is now an increasingly distant and fading memory.

Even though GDX is not leveraged, it has declined by a rather horrific -78.7% in just over four years.
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Little hope in the near term

The precious metals outlook remains broadly bearish, and if correct, GDX will break new lows in 2016. The 11/10s look a rather easy target.

The only issue is whether $900/875 Gold might equate to GDX in the 8/7s.. or even lower.

In any case... I see ZERO reason to be long the precious metals - or the related mining stocks, at least for another 3-6 months.

I do look forward to calling such a floor, and I strongly believe the miners will offer one of the best trades out there into the 2020s.

yours.... still patiently waiting... after four years.

CBRL - increasingly vulnerable to upside

Whilst the main market closed moderately weak, one of the few bright spots was Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), which opened a little lower (intra low $124.88), but which settled +0.4% @ $126.53. Near term outlook offers upside to the 135/140 zone.


CBRL, daily

CBRL, weekly

Summary

*Yes Brelsa, this post is entirely your fault!
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The stock has had a real problem since making a marginal new historic high in July ($156.99). Aug' saw it flash-crash to $117.06... with a lower high of $151 in Sept'.

Since then..  broad weakness to the 126/123 zone though, and unless that breaks, CBRL looks more vulnerable to upside.. than downside in Q1 2016.
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As a company.. income/balance sheet look good (cash/debt ratio look okay), gross/net profit margins are within industry standard... 6% net. That sure isn't much, but then.. that's the highly competitive restaurant trade.

see HERE for a basic overview.

Best guess...renewed upside to 135/140 zone in Q1.

It should be clear though, for sustained price action >140.. we'll need the sp'2200s.. and beyond.
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Low fuel prices look set to continue across 2016, and that will no doubt help ALL retail/food outlets.

Broadly.. CBRL looks a fine company, although I can't say anything about the food, as there are no Cracker Barrels in the UK.
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*I've no position, its not generally a stock/sector I follow, but as its gaining some increasing media/analyst attention, I'll likely periodically highlight it in the months ahead.

AAPL - daily gains, but price structure ain't great

With the broader market closing significantly higher, Apple (AAPL) was similarly on the rise, settling +1.8% @ $108.71. However, AAPL is set for the fifth monthly close below the 10MA ($118s). Until AAPL is trading back above the 200dma ($119s).. equity bulls should be at least somewhat cautious.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

*price structure on the smaller daily chart is a very valid bear flag. However, I don't expect it to play out, as the broader market looks set for upside - at least for the first half of January.
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Seen on the bigger monthly chart, AAPL sure doesn't look great at all, Despite today's net gains, AAPL is still net lower for December, by a very significant -8%.

If AAPL is a guide to the broader market, then there is a real serious problem ahead.

Equity bulls MUST see AAPL re-take the 200dma.. with a January close >$120.

GDX - miners dragged lower by weak metals

With precious metals starting the week on a rather negative note, the related mining stocks were seriously impacted. The ETF of GDX settled lower by a significant -3.1% @ $13.83. New multi-year lows look due as Gold looks inevitably headed for the $1000 threshold.. and probably below that.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

*it is notable from the monthly chart, the mining stocks have traded in a broadly narrow trading range since August.
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Commodities as a whole remain broadly weak... and it is no surprise to see renewed downward pressure into year end.

Gold still looks set for the giant $1000 threshold, and that would likely equate to another 7-10% off most mining stocks.

If Gold 900/875 in summer 2016 - as I suspect, most miners will likely be at least 15/20% lower than today's closing levels.

More than anything, I would argue there is yet to be capitulation within the precious metals mining sector, and the same goes for Oil/gas sector. Until there is capitulation... prices will remain broadly weak.

TVIX, UVXY - a natural Christmas weekly decline

With equities rallying into the Christmas break, the VIX significantly cooled. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw rather severe net weekly declines of -18.8% and -19.5% respectively. Equities look set to continue climbing into early 2016, and that will likely equate to a sustained subdued VIX.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX

A very significant net weekly decline of -23.5%... in the 15s, having cooled from the recent 26s.

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Holiday trading is typically subdued, and such thin trading conditions means volatility 'melts' out of the VIX.

Seeing such strong net weekly declines in TVIX & UVXY is absolutely to be expected.

The outlook for next week is likely no better, as the sp'500 looks set to break above the FOMC high of 2076.. and push into the 2100s.

FCX, TCK - copper miners surge

Whilst the main market pushed higher for a third consecutive day, there were extremely powerful gains for the copper miners. Freeport McMoran (FCX) and Teck Resources (TCK) settled higher by 16.2% and 9.9% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish, but there is yet to be any capitulation within the mining industry.


FCX, daily

TCK, daily

Summary

Suffice to note.. despite very powerful gains.. it has been a year of horror for most mining stocks.

Just reflect on the fact that FCX started 2015 in the $22s.. and despite today's very powerful gain, is still net lower by around -65%.
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*I have ZERO interest in being involved in any of the mining stocks, as commodities still look vulnerable to another major down wave in first half of 2016.

APC, RIG, SDRL - trying to climb out of hell

With Oil closing higher for a second consecutive day, there was notable strength in energy stocks. Anadarko (APC), Transocean (RIG), and Seadrill (SDRL), settled higher by 4.2%, 3.6%, and 1.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers moderate hope of a key short term floor.


APC, daily

RIG, daily

SDRL, daily

Summary

APC: Monday saw a spike floor from $44.50.. with some rather sig' Tuesday upside.

RIG: offering a double floor from around $12

SDRL: one of the very weakest oil/gas drillers.
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Suffice to add.. energy stocks could bounce 20/25% in Jan/Feb' 2016, and it would do very little to negate the massive collapse wave that began in summer 2014.

Considering WTIC oil probably hasn't yet seen a key floor - the $20s still look feasible, and thus energy stocks will be VERY vulnerable for the entirety of 2016.

DIS - turning to the dark side

Whilst the main market started the week on a moderately positive note, there was a very notable opening reversal in Disney (DIS), swinging from $110.10, to settle -1.1% @ $106.54. Near term outlook is weak, with next support within the 105/100 zone.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

re: Friday. DIS was greatly impacted on a down grade from BTIG, which issued a sell target of $90.
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Little to add. It remains utterly bizarre how the market is now turning on DIS. In addition to the Friday down grade, there remain longer term concerns about ESPN viewership.

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*I remain long DIS, but its turning into a big of train wreck. If the main market is not able to make a new high in Jan'2016, then DIS is not going to be breaking a new high (>$122) in the first half of 2016.

TVIX, UVXY - roller coaster week for the VIX instruments

It was a wild ride for those trading the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY. Breaking new cycle highs on Monday, but then collapsing into late Wed', before recovering into the weekend. Despite the Thur/Friday gains, TVIX/UVXY saw net weekly declines of -14.3% and -14.1% respectively.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX

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As for TVIX and UVXY.. it was a wild week indeed, although it certainly will have pleased those who only day trade and never hold overnight.

With the market battling to hold together into year end, the VIX remains high (relative to 2013/14)... with a second consecutive weekly close above the key 20 threshold.
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*for the moment, I'm still not inclined to meddle in the VIX, but if equities don't break a new historic high in early 2016... I'll consider a VIX-long in late January.

GDX - miners dragged lower by the metals

With precious metals seeing very significant net daily declines (pressured by a stronger USD), the related mining stocks were severely impacted. The ETF of GDX settled lower by -5.9% at $13.33. New multi-year lows look due, with the 12/11s viable in the immediate term, as Gold is set to test the $1000 threshold.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... it remains pretty straight forward.

Regardless of however strong the main equity market might be, the mining stocks are going to be seriously damaged as the precious metals periodically break new multi-year lows.
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Best guess... Gold to test $1000, and probably 900/875 in 2016. If correct.. that probably equates to at least another 15/20% off most individual miners.

AAPL - struggling relative to the main market

Whilst the broader market continues to battle upward from the Monday low of sp'1993, Apple (AAPL) continues to struggle, seeing an intra low of $108.80.. but settling +0.8% @ $111.33. Near term outlook is somewhat uncertain, as there is a clear break of support.


AAPL, daily

Summary

Across the last few years its been rather bizarre to see the periodic flack that APPL gets.

AAPL continues to rake in tens of billions per quarter... EVERY quarter.

Yet.. if AMZN makes an extra cent... the market treats the two companies in a completely different manner.
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*AAPL is one of my top 3 tech stocks... and top 5 Dow stocks. It is arguably the very last stock to consider being net short.

DIS - the stock awakens

Whilst the broader market settled broadly higher, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +2.6% @ $112.16 (intra high 113.34). Near term outlook offers the 115/117 zone, with the 120/22 zone viable before year end... if sp' >2120s.


DIS'daily

DIS'monthly

Summary

Suffice to add.... its Tuesday, and the fans across the world await the general release of Star Wars VII - the Force awakens.

The media are already giving significant attention to Disney, and if the broader market can rally into year end, the $120s by year are still viable.

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*I remain long DIS, seeking an exit in the 117/118s... at least.

GDX - following the metals lower

It was a rough start to the week for the precious metals, and that naturally pressured the related mining stocks lower. The miner ETF of GDX settled lower by a very significant -5.5% @ $13.59. New multi-year lows look due into 2016.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

Little to add.

Gold looks headed for the psy' level of $1000.. and probably 900/875. If correct, that probably equates to a further 15/20% off most mining stocks.
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*I've ZERO interest in picking up any of the individual miners, as there simply isn't yet any sign that the precious metals have floored.

TVIX, UVXY - exploding ahead of the FOMC

With the VIX soaring into the weekend, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UXVY saw extremely powerful net weekly gains of 56.3% and 58.4% respectively. Further upside across Mon/Tue' looks probable, before equally severe cooling into year end.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw an extreme net weekly gain of 64.7%.

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As for TVIX/UVXY... the bearish multi-week run comes to an abrupt end.. with massive gains.

With equities breaking below the Nov' low of sp'2019, TVIX and UVXY both broke above their mid Nov' high.. as should be the case.. even with the underlying decay problem.

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Best guess... VIX to climb/hold the mid/upper 20s.. .but then rapidly cooling into quad-opex.. and probably all the way into early 2016.

CNX, FCX - smashed down stocks.. trying to rally

Whilst the broader market closed moderately higher, there was notable strength in a fair number of commodity/energy related stocks. Consol Energy (CNX) and Freeport McMoran (FCX) settled higher by a very significant 10.1% and 5.3% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into January 2016.


CNX, daily

FCX, daily

Summary

Suffice to add... sig' net daily gains, although the broader trend remains powerfully bearish.
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*It would seem unlikely Oil has seen a key multi-year floor at today's new low of $36.38. The 32/30 zone looks viable in first half of 2016.

If that is the case, most energy/oil stocks will be highly vulnerable to renewed downside, even if the broader market is cruising into sp'2200/300s.
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*no position, not least in the coal miners, a sector that remains under direct attack from the US govt'.

AAPL - falling with the broader market

With the main market closing broadly lower for the third consecutive day, Apple (AAPL) was similarly on the slide, settling -2.2% @ $115.62. Rising support is around $113... so long as that holds.. there remains viable upside to the gap zone of 126/130.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... AAPL remains one of the leading stocks in the market.

If the equity bulls are going to achieve broad upside into spring 2016... AAPL will need to be trading well into the $130s.

Right now the $130s are a clear 13% higher... and look out of range before year end.
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*no position, and consider AAPL one of the last stocks to ever be short.

FB, NFLX, TWTR - momo stocks catch a bid

Whilst the broader market was weak across the day, there was notable strength in some of the momo stocks. Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), and Twitter (TWTR) settled higher by 0.9%, 1.3%, and 2.2% respectively. The strong reversal from the opening declines is arguably indicative of a key floor.


FB,daily

NFLX, daily

TWTR, daily

Summary

Little to add.

Suffice to say.. of all the sectors/stocks today... the momo stocks stood out at the close.

In particular, Facebook and Twitter both closed with particularly bullish candles.
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*I have ZERO interset in getting involved in any of the momo stocks, but they can often be useful to keep an eye on, as an early warning of a trend change in the broader market.

CHK, CNX, SDRL - energy stocks under severe pressure

With WTIC Oil seeing a severe net Monday decline of around -6%, most energy stocks were severely impacted. Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Consol Energy (CNX), and Seadrill (SDRL), settled lower by -6.4%, -15.0%, and -9.8% respectively. Current price action offers no sign of a short term floor.


CHK, daily

CNX, daily

SDRL,daily

Summary

*I could highlight a great many energy stocks, but for today.. the above 3 will have to suffice.
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re: Oil. With OPEC completely abandoning any kind of supply ceiling.. never mind any actual cuts, the oil market continues to spiral lower.

For the moment, there is absolutely ZERO sign of a floor.

Naturally.. most energy related stocks are imploding, breaking new multi-year.. even multi-decade lows.
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The energy sector is yet to see the capitulation that will be necessary for supply to balance against demand. Such capitulation will by definition require far more significant cuts... with some companies not surviving - as has been the case in the coal industry.

TVIX, UVXY - a third weekly decline

With equities soaring into the weekend, the VIX was crushed, and that sure didn't help the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, which saw net weekly declines of -8.4% and -8.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers further equity upside, and that will equate to VIX losing the teens.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -2.0%.

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As for TVIX and UVXY, it was all going so well into the Thursday close.. but with an effective equity hyper-ramp.. the VIX was crushed into the weekend.

VIX looks set to remain broadly subdued into year end. Sustained action above the 20 threshold looks out of range.

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*I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX until spring 2016 at the earliest.

CHK - new multi-decade lows

With the broader market closing significantly weak, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) was smashed lower (intra low $4.69), settling -11.9% @ $4.86, the lowest level since 2002. Near/mid term outlook for Nat' gas - and related stocks remains bearish


CHK, daily

CHK, monthly

Summary

Suffice to note... the Nat' gas related stocks remain an utter train wreck.

CHK was trading @ $29.37 in July 2014. Today's move to the mid $4s just continues a trend that looks set to last into 2016.
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*I have no position.. but I do keep a close eye on CHK. Considering the current price, Mr Market sure is suggesting the company faces severe problems.

If CHK can survive the current multi-year collapse in Nat' gas prices, I'd imagine it will eventually be a takeover target... but for now, CHK looks overly risky... and I have no intention to get involved.

CREE - continuing to climb

Whilst the broader market closed significantly lower, there was notable significant strength in Cree (CREE), which settled +1.1% @ $28.15. There is strong resistance in the 28/30 zone. The bigger monthly chart is offering upside to $40 by late spring 2016... if sp' can push to the 2300s.


CREE, daily

CREE, monthly

Summary

*a short update to follow up a recent post.
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Suffice to say, Cree is looking strong, having climbed from the $22s to 28s in just a few weeks.

A key multi-year floor looks to have been achieved, and now its a case of whether earnings in Q1 come in fine, if so.. then broader upside across spring 2016.

DIS - turning back upward

Whilst the main market closed significantly higher, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +1.6% @ $115.34 (intra high 115.46). Near term outlook offers upside all the way into early 2016. A break above the Aug' historic high of $122.08 looks due.


DIS, daily

DIS, monthly

Summary

The daily candle is of the inside-day type.. offering a clear turn. Will need to see the $116s on Wednesday to confirm.

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*I am long DIS from yesterday (IN @ $114.00).. seeking the 117/118s before the Friday close. I'll try to trade in/out of DIS in the months ahead.
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Broadly, DIS looks set for the 120s.. and far.. far higher.


.. and lets not forget the Star Wars hysteria that is set to go exponential in a few weeks...

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The fans are not going to just see this movie once... they'll be there once a day for a few weeks.
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It would seem some are even more bullish about DIS/Star Wars than yours truly :)