X - an important monthly settlement

US Steel ended the month of February on a significantly weak note, settling -1.1% at $43.51, but that still resulted in a powerful net monthly gain of 16.5%. The monthly settlement above $40.00 is technically profoundly important, and bodes for a grander run to at least $60 (with intermediate psy'$50). Mid/long term bullish implications for the broader market .


X monthly

X daily

Summary

Suffice to add, X is one of my three key signal stocks, that I highlighted in my outlook for 2018.

see: http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.co.uk/2018/01/weekend-update-outlook-for-2018.html
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Early 2017 saw a failed attempt to achieve a monthly settlement >40, that failure saw the stock then implode to the $18s. The recovery since May 2017 has seen US Steel push to the $46s, partly helped via 'tariff chatter'.

The February settlement above $40.00 is profoundly important, not just for US Steel itself, nor sister stocks like MT, NUE, or AKS, but for the broader equity market.

I recognise some will disagree with that extrapolation, but X isn't the only stock I'm using to help project the broader market.

Recent earnings were good, and the outlook is superb. Bullish US Steel.

GDX - miners cooling with metals

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $21.97, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -2.4%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, its been a choppy few weeks. Price action from early 2017 has been broadly choppy. Things turn decisively bullish >26.00, or bearish <20.00. The former looks far more probable.

Yours truly continues to lean toward the inflationary outlook/scenario. Copper/WTIC are both m/t bullish, and gold/silver should eventually follow. If correct, the miners would no doubt follow.
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Two of the leading miners...

Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly

Recent earnings were mixed. Technically, short/mid term price action remains outright bearish. Its arguably empty air to psy' $10.00, which is around another 20% lower.
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Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Recent price action is choppy, but Newmont is far stronger than many miners - not least Barrick Gold.
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To be clear, I like both NEM and ABX for the long term. Notably, the two stocks are the biggest components of GDX. 

Yours, bullish Gold Rush

CHK - surprisingly good earnings

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was notable strength in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), which settled higher by a very powerful 21.7% at $3.20. Q4 earnings were better than expected, and it gives hope this will be a survivor into the 2020s.


CHK daily

CHK monthly

Summary

First, see...

http://www.chk.com/Investors

Presentation download: http://www.chk.com/Documents/investors/Q4%202017%20Earnings%20Presentation.pdf
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Earnings were significantly better than most were expecting. Some details in the report offer hope for the future, but there are issues with long term debt - see page 9 of the presentation. We're in a rising rate environment, and CHK will have to at least roll that debt out, and that will be at higher rates.The company clearly needs sustainably higher WTIC/Nat' gas prices.


Technically...

Its been a horror story. The stock became stuck at resistance in summer 2014, and with energy prices imploding, the stock cooled from $29.37 to $1.50 in Feb' 2016. Since then, a push to the $8s, but recent cooling to $2.53, as Nat' gas prices swung from $3.63 to $2.53. The stock is clearly mid/long term bearish.


Q. Do I like the stock?

CHK does look like it will be a survivor, but I strongly favour the quartet of APC, PSX, LNG, and PBR.

GDX - miners back on the rise

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a negative note -2.1% at $22.51, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 3.8%. Near term outlook is offering further upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, a positive week for the precious metals of gold and silver, and that naturally saw the related mining stocks follow upward. Broadly though, price action remains range bound from early 2017.

For things to turn decisively bullish, GDX >26s, or bearish <$20. The former still looks due, as Gold is awfully close to the key $1400 threshold.
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Two of the most important miners, and very representative of the sector...

Barrick Gold, monthly

Newmont Mining, monthly

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Both are soundly based, and look good for the mid/long term. Clearly, Newmont is technically stronger, having already seen a bullish breakout in January.
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GDX - a second week lower

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week u/c at $21.68, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -5.4%. Near term outlook is offering a bounce. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly

GDX, daily

Summary

Special highlight: 5min...

With the main US market hyper spiking from sp'2532 to settle at 2619, even the gold miners caught a bid, with GDX soaring from $20.83 to settle u/c at $21.68.

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The miners were under major pressure this week, not least via the broader equity market, which saw the most bearish price action in some years. Notably, gold failed to catch any 'fear bid' to offset the main market pressure.

Broadly, the gold miners have just been trading sideways since early 2017. The cautious will just wait for a decisive break >26.00s, which would offer a fast run to challenge the summer 2016 high of $31.70. The bold would be buying at current levels, but with a super tight trading stop. Any sustained price action <$21.00 would merit alarm bells.

GDX - a major weekly decline

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a very negative note, -3.3% at $22.91, resulting in a net weekly decline of -5.9%. Near term outlook is choppy. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, with gold and silver on the slide, the miners naturally followed.

Much like gold, price action in the miners has been broadly choppy since early 2017. Things would turn decisively bullish >26... or bearish <20. Yours truly is leaning on an eventual upward break.

Special mention: Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly

Newmont saw a decisive bullish breakout in January, and is indirectly supportive to the notion that the rest of the sector will eventually follow this spring. Broader price structure is a giant bullish pennant, and that was indeed provisionally confirmed with the January close of $40.51.

X - selling lower on good earnings

US Steel saw good earnings, but still settled lower for a third consecutive day, -2.1% at $36.61. S/t outlook is bearish to the 50dma around $35.00. The m/t outlook is hyper bullish to $60 (with intermediate psy' $50), based on an FPE in the 9s, within a broadly accelerating US/world economy.


X daily

X monthly

Summary

First...see...

http://www.ussteel.com/investors/reports-filings 

Especially useful is the presentation:

http://www.ussteel.com/sites/default/files/reports_filings/USS%20Earnings%20Call%20Slides%2C%20Remarks%20-%202017%204Q%2CFY.pdf
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Suffice to add, earnings were good, and the outlook is outright superb. With annual EPS set to be around $3.80, that brings the FPE down to the 9s.

Considering the accelerating US/world economy (at least into mid 2019), the outlook for US Steel is very positive.

Technically, the stock did notably fail to break AND hold above multi-year resistance in January. On balance, it should manage this in Feb' or March. Any monthly close >$40 will offer a grander run to (at least $60) within 9-18 months.

The hyper bulls (sp'4-5K) could start to target 100/115 in late 2019/2020.