Wednesday 1 May 2013

TVIX, UVXY - ready for a big jump

With the indexes failing to be inspired by the FOMC, the VIX saw moderate gains of 7% into the close. The 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY showed appropriate gains of 6.8 and 8.2% respectively. Near term offers some very strong viable upside.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

First, keep in mind the daily VIX chart...


The VIX looks set to at least hit the 16/17s by the weekend. However, the big 20 threshold is viable if the market can make a challenge of the key sp'1536 low.

As for TVIX and UVXY, there should in theory be upside of 25/30%..minimum - if VIX can spike into the upper teens. Much more dramatic though would be VIX 20 - which would probably offer 50% gains for TVIX/UVXY.

That degree of upside is viable as early as this Friday. There is the big monthly jobs data, and if Mr Market gets rattled with fear of genuine economic weakness, then we might see a rather significant drop in the headline indexes - not just the Trans/R2K, as we saw today.
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As ever...such leveraged instruments are for short term trading only. Even a short 4-6 month chart displays the inherent dire decay.