Friday, 17 January 2014

GDX - making a break for the 200 day MA

With Gold/Silver prices continuing to rally for a fourth week, the mining stocks are battling real hard to break a huge downward trend that stretches all the way back to Sept'2011. GDX closed the week with gains of 2.7% @ $23.24, and looks set to challenge the 200 day MA in the $25s

GDX, daily

GDX, monthly


First, let me be absolutely clear...

The miners - along with the precious metals have seen MANY...oh so many little bounces, in the past two years. Each time the metals and miners have risen for a few weeks, many in the infamous 'gold bug community' have called a key multi-year floor.

Lately, we have also seen many big names call for end-2014 Gold prices above $2000. To me, that sounds like the same type of crazy talk we've seen every week since spring 2011 when the metals were broken.

My general outlook for Gold/Silver remains unchanged, with mid-term targets of $1050/950, and $12/10, respectively.

If that is the case, then the' the ETF of GDX will remain under general sustained downward pressure for much of 2014, if not also 2015.

The bulls need an awful lot

First, those who are still calling for a floor in the miners, need to see a few daily closes above the 200 day MA. For GDX, that is now in the $25s..which is not too far higher.

Yet..the bigger monthly chart is more clear. Bulls need to see GDX put in a monthly close above the 20MA..which is currently in the $35s - a huge 40% higher.

Regardless of the near term minor price action, I still find it hard to believe the precious metals have floored, and if that is the case, then the miners will remain pressured..until that event has occurred.