Whilst the main market remains relatively close to historic highs, Transocean (RIG) has been in a general decline since last November. With the market weak today, RIG slipped a further significant amount, settling -3.1% @ $39.54, the lowest level since June 2012.
As I noted some weeks ago, with the failure to hold $47, RIG holders were in trouble..and we're now almost 20% lower since late 2013.
I remain bullish about the Oil/gas sector for the very long term, but for the moment, the market has near zero respect for the entire sector.
If the main market rolls over this spring - down to the low sp'1600s, then RIG looks set to slip to the low 30s. However, if Q1 and Q2 earnings deteriorate..there is the risk of an ultimate fall..back to the low $20s/upper teens - the floor from 1999-2004.
RIG remains a company I will continue to closely follow across the summer.