Friday, 14 March 2014

TVIX, UVXY - strong weekly gains

With the US equity market slipping, the VIX broke into the 18s . This was reflected in the 2x lev' (bullish) VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, which saw net weekly gains of 14.7% and 16.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for a brief VIX decline into the FOMC, before a powerful surge >20.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which gained 26.3% across the week.

VIX looks set to break >22 in the coming few weeks, which would surpass the 2013 high,

As for TVIX and UVXY, both will probably see considerable gains after the next FOMC.

However, as is always the case, the VIX never stays high for very long, and both will be subject to severe statistical decay if we see some strong day to day swings in the equity market.

*I will consider going long VIX next Wednesday afternoon, after the next FOMC announcement is out of the way.