Thursday, 20 March 2014

UGAZ - cooling into the spring

Whilst the main market built gains after some initial weakness, Natural Gas prices were weak across the day, with the 3x (bullish) ETN of UGAZ, settling -5.4% @ $23.41. Near term outlook is for further weakness, not least now that spring has arrived.

UGAZ, daily


*first, an update on Nat' gas, weekly

We have a very clear reversal from the mid 6s, and there really isn't any support until the mid 3s, which is roughly another 25% lower.

As for UGAZ, the outlook looks pretty grim. With each day as we move forward in spring, the price pressure is increasingly to the downside.

Of course, there remain serious issues with Russia/EU over gas supplies, but with winter now fading, the pressure is off, at least for six months.

As ever, such 3x leveraged instruments are highly problematic for holding across multiple weeks. Even moderate sideways chop will lead to significant statistical decay.