Thursday, 17 April 2014

TVIX, UVXY - a failed week for the volatility bulls

The week started promising for the volatility bulls, with VIX breaking into the upper 17s. Yet, the week ended with a crushed VIX in the 13s. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY, naturally saw significant net weekly declines of -11.5% and -12.6% respectively.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which declined -21.5% across the week

As for the 2x bullish VIX instruments, it was a deeply disappointing end to the week. The notion of sp' under the key 1800 threshold, not looks unlikely until June, if not July/August.

At some point the VIX is going to break the big 20 threshold..and remain above - at least for a few weeks. When that point comes, the equity market is going to get smashed 15/20%.

When will it be? I still have a large hope that will be sometime this summer.