Friday, 18 July 2014

TVIX, UVXY - a very mixed week

With the VIX swinging from a low of 10.59 to 15.38, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw sig' gains. Yet, the week ended badly, with TVIX and UVXY seeing net daily declines of -12.0% and -13.1% respectively.

TVIX, daily



*first, an update on the VIX weekly chart

We have a rather bizarre spike for this weeks candle. There is low probability that the 17/18s can still be hit next week. More likely, VIX will melt back into the 10s.. if not the 9s..when we see sp' break into the 2000s.

Across the week, TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly losses of -3.1% and -3.9% respectively. Certainly, from a day trading perspective, they remain interesting vehicles, but held across multiple weeks - whilst the VIX remains relatively low... they are very problematic in terms of the incessant decay issue.

My bigger outlook remains the sp'2100s...whether late this year or early 2015. On any basis, I have zero interest in being long the VIX for some months to come.