Friday, 5 June 2015

TVIX, UVXY - naturally struggling

With the VIX remaining broadly subdued (weekly/Friday peak of 15.65), the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments saw a somewhat lacklustre performance, with net weekly gains of 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is for another equity wave higher into late June/early July, which should keep the VIX subdued. in the low teens

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 2.7%.

Suffice to say... a pretty poor weekly close for TVIX and UVXY.

Things really don't get interesting unless the VIX is back in the 20s, and that sure doesn't look likely until after the next FOMC.

*right now, best guess is for a sig' market correction back to the sp'2000/1950 zone.. which might equate to VIX 25/35s. The 40s look out of range this year... even if a GREXIT.

As ever, holding TVIX/UVXY across multiple weeks usually ends badly.. due to the statistical decay issue.