Friday, 4 September 2015

TVIX, UVXY - another strong weekly gain

With equities falling into the long weekend, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw significant net weekly gains of 23.0% and 23.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed equity upside, which should equate to VIX cooling back to the low 20s.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly gain of 6.7%.

*The third consecutive significant net weekly gain for TVIX and UVXY.

The Thursday daily reversal candle was a clear warning of upside into the weekend.. and that was indeed the case, with rather powerful net Friday gains.

However, my best guess is for renewed equity upside, at least to sp'2000 or so.. and that will re-cool the VIX to around the 20 threshold.

I will strongly consider going long-VIX in FOMC week. Seeking VIX 50/60s (minimum) if sp'1900 is lost.. which should open up sp'1820.. if not the low 1700s.

There are some very interesting VIX scenarios for October, but more on those.. .another time.