Friday, 30 October 2015

TVIX, UVXY - another difficult week

With the VIX ending the week on a moderately positive note, the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly gains of 2.1% and 2.9% respectively. Even if the VIX can battle into the low 20s by mid November (with sp'2020/00), it will do little to negate the huge declines since late August.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX

VIX is clearly looking like it has put in a Fed day spike floor of 12.80. I would expect at least the 18/20 zone - along with sp'2020/00 by Nov' opex.

There will probably be another moderate equity down wave at least once in Dec.. but it sure won't likely result in the VIX going up very much.

*for me.. the VIX-long trade is dead until late spring 2016. The only thing that would change such a view would be a weekly/monthly close <sp'1950.

As for TVIX/UVXY, minor net weekly gains... as equities have probably seen a short term peak of sp'2094.

... as ever.. such instruments suffer from statistical decay.. and holding for periods longer than a few days.. rarely ends well.