Thursday, 24 December 2015

TVIX, UVXY - a natural Christmas weekly decline

With equities rallying into the Christmas break, the VIX significantly cooled. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw rather severe net weekly declines of -18.8% and -19.5% respectively. Equities look set to continue climbing into early 2016, and that will likely equate to a sustained subdued VIX.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX

A very significant net weekly decline of -23.5%... in the 15s, having cooled from the recent 26s.

Holiday trading is typically subdued, and such thin trading conditions means volatility 'melts' out of the VIX.

Seeing such strong net weekly declines in TVIX & UVXY is absolutely to be expected.

The outlook for next week is likely no better, as the sp'500 looks set to break above the FOMC high of 2076.. and push into the 2100s.