Tuesday, 5 January 2016

DIS - torpedoed in the exhaust port

Despite Star Wars VII on its way to becoming one of the biggest and most profitable movies of all time, Disney (DIS) continues to decline from the Dec'16th high of $114.75 (a black-fail daily candle no less), with a Tuesday net decline of -2.0% @ $100.93 (intra low $99.89).

DIS, daily

DIS, monthly


*DIS was particularly under pressure today after a downgrade from Macquarie

Suffice to add, it remains a twisted market, one where the better stocks will often get under-valued, relative to the momo nonsense - like NFLX, AMZN, or FB.

DIS is unquestionably a superb company. Yes, there are concerns about ESPN, amid a potentially weaker economy in 2016, but broadly, it remains one of my top Dow stocks.

From a pure price perspective, DIS is seriously struggling, and looks set for continued weakness into the late spring/early summer.

Summer downside?

A simple fib' retrace from the 2009 low...

.. offers the 80/75 zone this summer. That would likely require the sp'1600s though, and that is a clear 20% lower.

As for those torpedoes...

I would imagine that by the end of 2016, DIS will be surging back upward, as 'Rogue One' is due for release in December.