Friday, 22 January 2016

TVIX, UVXY - mixed week for the VIX instruments

It was a very mixed week for the VIX instruments, as the VIX climbed to the 32s on Wednesday, but settling in the 22s. TVIX and UVXY both saw a net weekly decline of -15.9%. Near term outlook offers further cooling in volatility, before viable hyper upside in February/March.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -17.3% .

As for TVIX and UVXY, it was indeed a very dynamic week.

TVIX closed last Friday at $10.58, but saw a peak on Wed' (with VIX 32.09) at $12.91. The Friday close of $9.30   was a very significant -28% lower from the intra week high.

Yours truly tried a TVIX-long trade late Wed', but closed out within 45 minutes, as the market saw renewed strength into the close.

For the moment, I see no reason to be long TVIX/UVXY until at least sp'1970s with VIX 18s, and that will likely equate to TVIX back in the 7s.

As ever, such instruments are for short term holds only, as there serious inherent problems of statistical decay.