Friday 22 January 2016

TVIX, UVXY - mixed week for the VIX instruments

It was a very mixed week for the VIX instruments, as the VIX climbed to the 32s on Wednesday, but settling in the 22s. TVIX and UVXY both saw a net weekly decline of -15.9%. Near term outlook offers further cooling in volatility, before viable hyper upside in February/March.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily



Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -17.3% .


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As for TVIX and UVXY, it was indeed a very dynamic week.

TVIX closed last Friday at $10.58, but saw a peak on Wed' (with VIX 32.09) at $12.91. The Friday close of $9.30   was a very significant -28% lower from the intra week high.

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Yours truly tried a TVIX-long trade late Wed', but closed out within 45 minutes, as the market saw renewed strength into the close.

For the moment, I see no reason to be long TVIX/UVXY until at least sp'1970s with VIX 18s, and that will likely equate to TVIX back in the 7s.
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As ever, such instruments are for short term holds only, as there serious inherent problems of statistical decay.