Friday, 15 January 2016

TVIX, UVXY - surprisingly low net weekly gains

Despite the sp'500 breaking a new cycle low of 1857, the VIX never did show any hyper upside, and the 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw relatively moderate net weekly gains of 11.2% and 11.3% respectively. There is clearly threat of an equity bounce into the next FOMC.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a surprisingly weak net weekly gain of 0.04%

As for TVIX/UVXY.. the Friday closing 'black-fail' candle bodes against further VIX upside.

However, the broader equity trend remains powerfully bearish, and considering global equity weakness, VIX looks set for the 35/45 zone in the weeks ahead.

*I bailed early on TVIX on Monday, and have since been extremely cautious, waiting for an equity bounce that just didn't occur.

For the moment.. I'm not chasing the market lower, and would only consider TVIX again if sp'1943/69 zone... and that might equate to VIX still above the key 20 threshold.