Monday, 14 March 2016

GDX - miners retracing with the metals

With the precious metals closing lower for a second consecutive day, the related mining stocks were naturally following. The ETF of GDX settled lower by a very significant -4.3% @ $19.11. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the fib' retrace zone in the mid $17s.

GDX, daily2

GDX, monthly


The precious metals appear in a long overdue retrace, and that is naturally seeing the related mining stocks being dragged lower.

The only issue is whether the metals/miners will floor around the next FOMC, or need a bigger retrace.. not so much in terms of price, but time.

Having rallied from mid December to early March, that is almost 3 months. A time retrace could be argued should last around a month.. which would be suggestive of early April.

In any case... broader upside targets remain unchanged..

Primary $24/25
Secondary $30/32 zone

The best case upside target for Gold is around $1500. If that occurred by late summer, GDX would likely be trading around $40 ... effectively double the current level.

*no current position, will strongly consider GDX in the 18.50/17.50 zone.. with GLD 115/114.