Friday, 18 March 2016

TVIX, UVXY - a fifth week of horror

With equities continuing to broadly climb, the VIX naturally cooled for a fifth week. The 2x lev' bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY saw net weekly declines of -12.8% and -14.3% respectively. Next week offers further weakness, before a viable turn once WTIC oil maxes out around $44/45.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -15.0%

As for TVIX and UVXY, indeed.. a fifth week of horror.

Since the Feb'11th equity low...

TVIX has declined from $13.58 to $5.44, a net decline of -59.9%.

UVXY has fallen from $61.92 to  $23.66, a net decline of -61.5%.


*I am seeking to be long VIX - via TVIX, once Oil has maxed out. Oil is a clear threat to the equity bears, as most recognise its been a key factor in pushing the market back upward.

Once Oil maxes out, I'd imagine equities will be able to cool into end month.. and more broadly.. across the spring ,and into the summer.

As ever, such leveraged instruments are (almost always) for very short term holds only, primarily due to the inherent problem of statistical decay.